The Next Tory Leader

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

Good to see the Tory Civil War begins apace. #NeverRishi is currently trending on Twitter, with a combination of non-Tory posts, not-conservative-enough posts and pro-Boris posts. He's clearly got support within the parliamentary party. It will be interesting to see if there is a concerted effort against him from those who do not support him, so support someone else to deny him a place in the final 2. But if the membership are as pro-Boris as Twitter sometimes makes it appear (and I know Twitter is a unique microcosm and not necessarily representative) then if it comes down to a 'traitor' vs a 'loyalist' then that could play a significant part. Personally, I think Rishi is fairly easy to paint into a corner and the polish will very quickly come off when he's sat in the big chair with some restless backbenchers. There are far scarier names for Labour to face than Rishi Sunak.

 

Ben Wallace announcing he's not standing today was a surprise. Probably explains why he seems to be a great candidate, not craven or opportunistic, just someone doing a decent job of the one he's got amid the chaos. Where he throws his support would be very interesting, particularly if it's to someone like Tugendhat or Mordaunt.

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

I did wonder whether he was keeping his powder dry for a big job elsewhere (how long as Stoltenberg got to go at NATO) or he is looking towards the Conservative defeat in 2023 and thinks that would be his time

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

17 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

I did wonder whether he was keeping his powder dry for a big job elsewhere (how long as Stoltenberg got to go at NATO) or he is looking towards the Conservative defeat in 2023 and thinks that would be his time

 

According to Wikipedia, Stoltenberg should have stood down in October this year and had accepted a job at the Norwegian Central Bank as his next job. Instead, he has been asked to stay on a further year following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the bank job has gone to someone else. But potentially just over a year to a vacancy so maybe.

 

Surely the election will be 2024, unless the new leader gets a nice bump and decides to strike before it gets any worse. But I do wonder if this is the election no one wants to win: what do the Tories do if they do get hammered in 2024? Get rid of a leader that's already been chosen to rebuild the party's brand, or stick with them until the 2028/9 election and see what happens there? Guess that will depend on how things proceed under the new leader. Shapps and Zahawi the latest two to put their names forward. Slightly surprised Liz Truss is taking so long announcing, but suggestions her bid will be launched tomorrow.

[The Old Crem 3,605]

Theresa May got a large bump in the polls and called an election and we all know how that turned out. Can’t see a new leader gambling on that again. 

[Toast 16,141]

I'm waiting for Fabricunt to throw his wig into the ring.

[The Old Crem 3,605]

7 minutes ago, Toast said:

I'm waiting for Fabricunt to throw his wig into the ring.

Unless he does a give that won’t happen as he is backing Penny Mordaunt. 

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

22 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

Theresa May got a large bump in the polls and called an election and we all know how that turned out. Can’t see a new leader gambling on that again. 

 

Theresa May didn't call an election for a year and thought it would be a shoo-in against Corbyn, not realising that the anti-Brexit vote would do anything to deny her a majority (and also she was an awful campaigner).

 

Gordon Brown, on the other hand, should have called an autumn election in 2007 when he got the post-Blair bounce, as a year later the crash happened and it all started to unravel for him. Its always been said he didn't pull the trigger because it looked like a 65-seat majority would be trimmed to maybe 20-30 seats, but that would have been far preferable to the eventual outcome.

 

With the economy set to get worse, the Brexit dividend looking marginal at best and the taint of Johnson tarnishing the brand, a new leader may see an early bump as a chance to limit Labour's gains and maybe even hold on to a hung parliament, which at the moment would be a win for the Tories. Or they can ride it out until the bitter end in 2024: didn't work for Callaghan, Brown or Major in 97. Did work for Major in 92.

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

1 hour ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

According to Wikipedia, Stoltenberg should have stood down in October this year and had accepted a job at the Norwegian Central Bank as his next job. Instead, he has been asked to stay on a further year following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the bank job has gone to someone else. But potentially just over a year to a vacancy so maybe.

 

Surely the election will be 2024, unless the new leader gets a nice bump and decides to strike before it gets any worse. But I do wonder if this is the election no one wants to win: what do the Tories do if they do get hammered in 2024? Get rid of a leader that's already been chosen to rebuild the party's brand, or stick with them until the 2028/9 election and see what happens there? Guess that will depend on how things proceed under the new leader. Shapps and Zahawi the latest two to put their names forward. Slightly surprised Liz Truss is taking so long announcing, but suggestions her bid will be launched tomorrow.

I meant 2024. Sorry

[The Old Crem 3,605]

9 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

Theresa May didn't call an election for a year and thought it would be a shoo-in against Corbyn, not realising that the anti-Brexit vote would do anything to deny her a majority (and also she was an awful campaigner).

 

Gordon Brown, on the other hand, should have called an autumn election in 2007 when he got the post-Blair bounce, as a year later the crash happened and it all started to unravel for him. Its always been said he didn't pull the trigger because it looked like a 65-seat majority would be trimmed to maybe 20-30 seats, but that would have been far preferable to the eventual outcome.

 

With the economy set to get worse, the Brexit dividend looking marginal at best and the taint of Johnson tarnishing the brand, a new leader may see an early bump as a chance to limit Labour's gains and maybe even hold on to a hung parliament, which at the moment would be a win for the Tories. Or they can ride it out until the bitter end in 2024: didn't work for Callaghan, Brown or Major in 97. Did work for Major in 92.

Maybe. Just not sure any will get a bump above a 3/4% lead which would make it seem very risky.

[Toast 16,141]

33 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

42 minutes ago, Toast said:

I'm waiting for Fabricunt to throw his wig into the ring.

 

Unless he does a give that won’t happen as he is backing Penny Mordaunt. 

 

I was joking.

[time 8,611]

It won't be Dorries, if this is to be believed...

 

[ladyfiona 2,588]

 

Basically it comes down to who is the less corrupt Tory.

[Windsor 2,233]

Liz Truss.

 

But only because the Chancellor and the two other former Chancellors are too dark a shade of brown for the average Conservative Party Member; they'll do for window dressing, but not for punch.

[Windsor 2,233]

Also; Tom Tugendhat.

 

Why the fuck would you make someone with a name like that the Prime Minster? It has connotations of tugging a foreskin. 

[The Old Crem 3,605]

The international trade secretary, and Boris loyalist, Anne Marie Trevelyan is backing Tugendhat. Slightly unusual to endorse someone whose campaign is based o. how the guy who you were loyal to degraded politics and trust needs to be rebuilt. 

[The Old Crem 3,605]

My dad seems to wants Zahawi.

[Harvester Of Souls 40]

Genuine question for the panel...

 

Does anyone want to see this all burn to the ground? Political leader is an oxymoron at this point.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

1 hour ago, time said:

It won't be Dorries, if this is to be believed...

 

 

That list makes me physically want to vomit. 

[ladyfiona 2,588]

9 minutes ago, Harvester Of Souls said:

Genuine question for the panel...

 

Does anyone want to see this all burn to the ground? Political leader is an oxymoron at this point.

 

The public will always need some kind of leader whether it is a posh Etontonian or some activist from Soho who is vegetarian and believes he/she/they/it is a Jedi. There will be riots, people going "ok now what" and then people going "so uh I have an idea on how to move forward", then people following that person and next thing you know they will be going all political in whatever is left of parliament.

[The Old Crem 3,605]

Zac Goldsmith is really going for Sunak on Twitter.

 

I think the demographics of any new leader bosom will have to be examined. Some candidates will see more of a boost among working class voters while others If they win feel like they would boost the middle class vote more.

[YoungWillz 21,050]

Did I just hear Jeremy Hunt would have Esther McVey as his deputy?

 

Jesus H Christ.

[Great Uncle Bulgaria 1,284]

15 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

 

I think the demographics of any new leader bosom will have to be examined.

Interesting criterion for determining a new prime minister.

I can think of  a lot of people whose bosoms need examining (by me), but none of them are Tory politicians.

[The Old Crem 3,605]

11 minutes ago, Great Uncle Bulgaria said:

Interesting criterion for determining a new prime minister.

I can think of  a lot of people whose bosoms need examining (by me), but none of them are Tory politicians.

Oh dear my spelling is getting worse. I mean boost. 
 

I’ve just found out that Penny Mordaunt is related to Dame Angela Lansbury - I hope she doesn’t try and shut us down for insulting her relative. 

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,346]

1 minute ago, The Old Crem said:

Oh dear my spelling is getting worse. I mean boost. 
 

I’ve just found out that Penny Mordaunt is related to Dame Angela Lansbury - I hope she doesn’t try and shut us down for insulting her relative. 

Interesting because  Angela  Lansburys  grandfather used to be the leader of the Labour Party.  In what way are Penny Mordaunt and Angela Lansbury related?

[The Old Crem 3,605]

17 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

Did I just hear Jeremy Hunt would have Esther McVey as his deputy?

 

Jesus H Christ.

That is a somewhat odd decision. McVey is not the most popular among her fellow Tory Mp’s.