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Derby Dead Pool 2023

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The Old Crem    3,588

The Old Crem
Posted

The Twitter issues could even reduce the number of Q/O’a by one or two if it’s permanent as I’m sure some borderline fame ones are written after journalists see reports on Twitter. If those journalists leave Twitter those reports could be lost. 

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Evil Grimace    359

Evil Grimace
Posted
On 27/06/2023 at 19:30, Gooseberry Crumble said:

What I need @YoungWillz  fairly soon is a decent  number of hits in my Derby Dead Pool entries this year to atone for and counteract the humiliation of so many of my recently dropped picks dying and making it onto the list of the missed.

 

Esther Shapiro,  June Kenton, Michael Fagan, Leonard Hayflick,  Bob Mackie,Jefferson King,  Marcia Ashton....over to you!!

 

TL;DR summary:  if the monthly hit rate is greater than or equals 0.7 hits/day (21 hits/month), or the yearly rate stays above 0.8 we are in for a record year.

Yearly rate = total hits on the day/day of year out of 365.  For example, 30 June hits were 161 and 30 June is day 181 of 365.  So 161/181 = 0.890.

 

 

I'm blaming both @YoungWillz and @Gooseberry Crumble for giving me ideas.  

 

It is just over half the year and despite @Gooseberry Crumble lamenting missed picks, this year has had a great first half.  And I'll make a prediction - it will be a record setting year with 290 hits.

 

As I write on 5 July, there are 164 hits.  As of 30 June at 161 hits, it is the best performing year so far compared to 2020, 2021 and 2022.   I've used these years as the spread of total hits is low:  2020 (278), 2021 (275), 2022 (280).  Kudos for precision deadpoolers.  

 

First off, why such a good tally end of June?  Two reasons - no May or June slump in hits that happened every year 2020-2022.  And this is despite having the worst 31 January tally in 2023 vs 2020-2022. 

 

I've hidden the maths below so as not to trigger the forum users.

 

I'm confident in this prediction.  And I'll try to update it as the results come in.

 

Always happy to hear any comments, suggestions, why you hated your maths teacher, etc.

 

Edit:  If you really want a bumper year, find QOs for the LotL; I suspect that the low number of them is partly a reason for the success.

Also, why call out @YoungWillz?  The knack of finding QOs weeks and months later made me realize that my initial counts were inaccurate, b/c ofc @YoungWillz had turned it up and it was put in its correct date.  Dedication to the cause.

 

Spoiler

Based on the monthly historical average of 0.7 hits/day (21 hits/month) for 2020-2022, and the 30 June hits of 161 the maths give the table below.

Note I didn't round during the calculations so as not to introduce any errors.  At the end, that rounds nicely to 290.

 

 

  January February March April May June July August September October November December
2023 29 59 82 110 134 161 182.7 204.4 225.4 247.1 268.1 289.8
monthly rate 0.935 1.071 0.742 0.933 0.774 0.900 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
yearly rate 0.935 1.000 0.911 0.917 0.887 0.890 0.862 0.841 0.826 0.813 0.803 0.794

 

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Gooseberry Crumble    5,342

Gooseberry Crumble
Posted
4 hours ago, Evil Grimace said:

 

TL;DR summary:  if the monthly hit rate is greater than or equals 0.7 hits/day (21 hits/month), or the yearly rate stays above 0.8 we are in for a record year.

Yearly rate = total hits on the day/day of year out of 365.  For example, 30 June hits were 161 and 30 June is day 181 of 365.  So 161/181 = 0.890.

 

 

I'm blaming both @YoungWillz and @Gooseberry Crumble for giving me ideas.  

 

It is just over half the year and despite @Gooseberry Crumble lamenting missed picks, this year has had a great first half.  And I'll make a prediction - it will be a record setting year with 290 hits.

 

As I write on 5 July, there are 164 hits.  As of 30 June at 161 hits, it is the best performing year so far compared to 2020, 2021 and 2022.   I've used these years as the spread of total hits is low:  2020 (278), 2021 (275), 2022 (280).  Kudos for precision deadpoolers.  

 

First off, why such a good tally end of June?  Two reasons - no May or June slump in hits that happened every year 2020-2022.  And this is despite having the worst 31 January tally in 2023 vs 2020-2022. 

 

I've hidden the maths below so as not to trigger the forum users.

 

I'm confident in this prediction.  And I'll try to update it as the results come in.

 

Always happy to hear any comments, suggestions, why you hated your maths teacher, etc.

 

Edit:  If you really want a bumper year, find QOs for the LotL; I suspect that the low number of them is partly a reason for the success.

Also, why call out @YoungWillz?  The knack of finding QOs weeks and months later made me realize that my initial counts were inaccurate, b/c ofc @YoungWillz had turned it up and it was put in its correct date.  Dedication to the cause.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Based on the monthly historical average of 0.7 hits/day (21 hits/month) for 2020-2022, and the 30 June hits of 161 the maths give the table below.

Note I didn't round during the calculations so as not to introduce any errors.  At the end, that rounds nicely to 290.

 

 

  January February March April May June July August September October November December
2023 29 59 82 110 134 161 182.7 204.4 225.4 247.1 268.1 289.8
monthly rate 0.935 1.071 0.742 0.933 0.774 0.900 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
yearly rate 0.935 1.000 0.911 0.917 0.887 0.890 0.862 0.841 0.826 0.813 0.803 0.794

 

I certainly  share your faith and I am in agreement that the Derby Dead Pool is in for a record breaking year-Id just be more happy if more Crumble ingredients would oblige and become part of the recipe mix of that success story!!

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Spade_Cooley    9,525

Spade_Cooley
Posted
10 hours ago, Evil Grimace said:

Edit:  If you really want a bumper year, find QOs for the LotL; I suspect that the low number of them is partly a reason for the success.

 

Great idea, let's all write letters to the major newspapers demanding a real obit for Mark Stokes. For the good of the DDP.

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Octopus of Odstock    2,195

Octopus of Odstock
Posted
7 hours ago, Spade_Cooley said:

 

Great idea, let's all write letters to the major newspapers demanding a real obit for Mark Stokes. For the good of the DDP.

 

And Tongo. Should've been covered in every broadsheet already!

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gcreptile    10,970

gcreptile
Posted
8 minutes ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-suffolk-66121304

 

Qualifying Obituary  for Suffolk Councillor Caroline Page in the DDP. 

Indeed!

Had her on my longlist, but obits for councillors have been quite spotty recently.

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Gooseberry Crumble    5,342

Gooseberry Crumble
Posted
8 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

Indeed!

Had her on my longlist, but obits for councillors have been quite spotty recently.

A nice unique  'hit' for someone anyway- She apparently spotted her cancer late believing it wrongly to be symptoms of long covid.  That probably  helped nudge the death into receiving media coverage of a qualifying obituary kind. 

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Perhaps    1,423

Perhaps
Posted
Just now, Gooseberry Crumble said:

A nice unique  'hit' for someone anyway- She apparently spotted her cancer late believing it wrongly to be symptoms of long covid.  That probably  helped nudge the death into receiving media coverage of a qualifying obituary kind. 

 

A nice unique for my main team. Need all I can get with 3 picks on that team that I’ve declared dudds. Surprised QOs for Page came in so quickly as I thought she was a risky pick. 

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Gooseberry Crumble    5,342

Gooseberry Crumble
Posted
2 hours ago, Perhaps said:

 

A nice unique for my main team. Need all I can get with 3 picks on that team that I’ve declared dudds. Surprised QOs for Page came in so quickly as I thought she was a risky pick. 

Congratulations if that doesn't sound too tacky or inappropriate..!?

 

I'm very overdue some hits in DDP Crumble Teams but I'm convinced I'm going to keep the obituary writers in that pool very busy sometime soon this year!

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Joey Russ    7,226

Joey Russ
Posted

Kinda surprised Shakur hasn’t popped up much in major press, wonder if Twitter seemingly being on its last legs have delayed his death being mentioned in the press

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