General Election 2024?

[TQR 14,398]

1 minute ago, Spade_Cooley said:

 

This is the most @The Old Crem post in the history of this forum.

Yep. The height of all inanity. Thanks for quoting it so the several people who have him on ignore didn’t miss out.

[BuffaloPhil 927]

6 hours ago, DCI Frank Burnside said:

Yes Nads I'm sure being DPP was  a walk in the park 

 

 

 

At least he'll get to go on I'm A Celebrity on our dollar...

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buckingham_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buckingham_and_Bletchley_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

 

The last Labour MP for what was just Buckingham up until this election:

 

 

[Sly Ronnie 886]

I have been looking at the polls in the run-up to the election and they make interesting reading.

 

These were the poll averages in the run up to the announcement of the election on May 22nd:

 

Lab 45.1

Con 23.3

Ref 11.3

LD 9.3

Grn 6.1

 

These are the averages since 27th June:

 

Lab 39.9 (-5.2)

Con 21.5 (-1.8)

Ref 15.7 (+4.4)

LD 11.3 (+2)

Grn 5.5 (-0.6)

 

So Labour's share has trickled down over the course of the campaign, Reform shot up but is starting to fall, the Lib Dems have added a couple of points and the Greens have fallen slightly.

I wonder if there will be a further narrowing of Labour's lead before we reach polling day?

 

 

 

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

 

Just read a BBC in-depth piece looking at traditional Tory areas that may fall in this election. Explanations that Tory support falling more dramatically in traditional Tory areas than in the uniform swing. Illustrated by 2 graphs showing seats under traditional polling and under MRP projections. The words "analysis by Prof Sir John Curtice" give me my first little bit of excitement that it may actually be happening.

[TQR 14,398]

Survation’s final MRP before the election; 34,558 people surveyed:

 

LAB: 484 (maj. 318)

CON: 64

LDM: 61

SNP: 10

REF: 7

GRN: 3

PLC: 3

 

Ooooh it’s a close one between the Tories and the Lib Dems. I hope to fuck the tactical voters turn up on Thursday - they’ve got a job to do.

 

Much as a Lib Dem opposition is the dream scenario, I’d frankly still be happy with this additional finding: that there is a 99% certainty of Labour securing more seats than in 1997.

[msc 18,477]

23 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

Just read a BBC in-depth piece looking at traditional Tory areas that may fall in this election. Explanations that Tory support falling more dramatically in traditional Tory areas than in the uniform swing. Illustrated by 2 graphs showing seats under traditional polling and under MRP projections. The words "analysis by Prof Sir John Curtice" give me my first little bit of excitement that it may actually be happening.

John is of the belief no party can lose over half their support and expect to hang on to over half their MPs. He's also stated that if we accept that twenty point drop then there's a lot of seats where the Tories don't actually have 20% of the vote to drop in the first place. And thirdly, that the Tory vote is doing worse where they are the incumbent.

 

You know me, I trust experts but bloody hell what all this suggests breaks my brain.

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

So fucking true 

 

 

[Sod's Law 447]

4 hours ago, TQR said:

Yep. The height of all inanity. Thanks for quoting it so the several people who have him on ignore didn’t miss out.

You mean you're OK with missing out on him saying 'I told you so' when Oswald Mosley rises from the grave and takes Shetland for the Greens because Jeremy Hunt just sneezed?

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

Do we dare dream

 

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

53 minutes ago, msc said:

John is of the belief no party can lose over half their support and expect to hang on to over half their MPs. He's also stated that if we accept that twenty point drop then there's a lot of seats where the Tories don't actually have 20% of the vote to drop in the first place. And thirdly, that the Tory vote is doing worse where they are the incumbent.

 

You know me, I trust experts but bloody hell what all this suggests breaks my brain.

 

As a wise old sage told us in 2016, this country has had enough of experts.

 

 

But, agreed. Thursday is definitely a popcorn night (if I liked popcorn).

[maryportfuncity 10,647]

10 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

As a wise old sage told us in 2016, this country has had enough of experts.

 

 

But, agreed. Thursday is definitely a popcorn night (if I liked popcorn).

 

 

I'm planning an early night (hear the exit polls and turn in) before waking up to a massive pile of toast for breakfast!

[Sod's Law 447]

Feels weirdly exciting to put the 'boring' back into politics again. As it should be. Mature adults just getting on with the job. 

 

The Tories can keep having their little dramas to entertain us on the sidelines, but they'll thankfully be left as no more than some hair-pulling protest group well out of harm's way. And if they're left as only the third largest party... well, that's a comedy I wouldn't want to miss.  

[Sly Ronnie 886]

5 hours ago, Spade_Cooley said:

 

This is the most @The Old Crem post in the history of this forum.

 

Earlier in the campaign I was thinking of quoting each of Crem's posts with "and that means Labour will lose the election!"

But that running gag would have run very thin indeed.

[msc 18,477]

12 minutes ago, Sly Ronnie said:

 

Earlier in the campaign I was thinking of quoting each of Crem's posts with "and that means Labour will lose the election!"

But that running gag would have run very thin indeed.

Ditto with his ed Davey will resign before the end of January prediction tbh.

[AstroKat 534]

2 hours ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

Just read a BBC in-depth piece looking at traditional Tory areas that may fall in this election. Explanations that Tory support falling more dramatically in traditional Tory areas than in the uniform swing. Illustrated by 2 graphs showing seats under traditional polling and under MRP projections. The words "analysis by Prof Sir John Curtice" give me my first little bit of excitement that it may actually be happening.

 

I read this earlier, while the words 'analysis by Prof John Curtice' give me hope, I still can't quite bring myself to believe that the Tories will end up with less than 100 seats, let alone be the third largest party (although that would be wonderful). In a little under 49 hours we will have the exit poll, if that shows a similar projection, then I will dare to dream. 

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

1 hour ago, AstroKat said:

I read this earlier, while the words 'analysis by Prof John Curtice' give me hope, I still can't quite bring myself to believe that the Tories will end up with less than 100 seats, let alone be the third largest party (although that would be wonderful). In a little under 49 hours we will have the exit poll, if that shows a similar projection, then I will dare to dream. 

 

Totally agree. I've been burned too many times already in my short voting life (actually, it's been 17 years now, where the fuck is time going?). I'll hold my breath until 10pm Thursday.

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

Honking Pudding shows up and to no great surprise makes a tit of himself

 

 

 

 

Yeah they'll probably put the son of an ex-KGB agent in the HoL......Oh wait......

[Toast 16,141]

"Pregnant with horrors" is a fair description of Boris's mother.

[Brad252 807]

Another ironic/poor choice of venue to campaign at:

 

https://x.com/jamiesont/status/1808250458915721350

 

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

Daily Mail taking it well I see

 

 

 

Rolling out Boris I would argue is only going to motivate people to get out and vote against them

[maryportfuncity 10,647]

1 hour ago, AstroKat said:

 

I read this earlier, while the words 'analysis by Prof John Curtice' give me hope, I still can't quite bring myself to believe that the Tories will end up with less than 100 seats, let alone be the third largest party (although that would be wonderful). In a little under 49 hours we will have the exit poll, if that shows a similar projection, then I will dare to dream. 

 

 

So, loads of people are getting their hopes up at the thought of Ed Davey LOTO, unlikely, even in the most dire polls for the Tories

 

But...

 

Suella Braverman's leadership bid is underway in all but name with a piece in the Telegraph tomorrow pretty much making it clear that the right will unleash a strong argument that the party tanked in the election by being too soft and liberal in policies and recent performance. What if that schism erupts in the remaining parliamentary party (which will have a few one nation Tories in seats so safe they'll survive)? There might be a rapid and rabid period of defections, a few thwarted Tories losing out in the reshuffle and fancying a defection to Reform where they'll be rewarded with spokesperson posts before some of the one nation crowd realise they could trade their defection to the Lib Dems for a shadow cabinet post as their numbers gift Ed Davey the job of LOTO and stick it to the right wingers who (in their view) destroyed Conservatism as an electoral force.

 

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

3 minutes ago, DCI Frank Burnside said:

Daily Mail taking it well I see

 

Rolling out Boris I would argue is only going to motivate people to get and vote against them

 

They really still believe he's a vote winner don't they? The man who partied while pensioners died, who supported sex pests rather than fire them, who sold us Brexit on a whole pack of lies. Bless them. 

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

3 minutes ago, maryportfuncity said:

 

 

So, loads of people are getting their hopes up at the thought of Ed Davey LOTO, unlikely, even in the most dire polls for the Tories

 

But...

 

Suella Braverman's leadership bid is underway in all but name with a piece in the Telegraph tomorrow pretty much making it clear that the right will unleash a strong argument that the party tanked in the election by being too soft and liberal in policies and recent performance. What if that schism erupts in the remaining parliamentary party (which will have a few one nation Tories in seats so safe they'll survive)? There might be a rapid and rabid period of defections, a few thwarted Tories losing out in the reshuffle and fancying a defection to Reform where they'll be rewarded with spokesperson posts before some of the one nation crowd realise they could trade their defection to the Lib Dems for a shadow cabinet post as their numbers gift Ed Davey the job of LOTO and stick it to the right wingers who (in their view) destroyed Conservatism as an electoral force.

 

It'll be by far one of the funniest outcomes that the takeaway (wrongly) from the Braverman types will be that they lost because they weren't right wing enough....

[Brad252 807]

The Times tomorrow has my favourite headline and "unfortunate" front page layout: