General Election 2024?

[Clorox Bleachman 2,172]

Well then.

 

The only one I agreed with all 5 parties on was pensions. 2 parties are crying out for votes from that demographic, so show compassion in ways they don't towards migrants, students, carers, single parents and the disabled. 

[The Old Crem 3,311]

The Times hour by hour guide of seats to watch. 

 

11pm 

Blyth and Ashington 

Houghton & Sunderland South

 

12am

Basildon & Billericay
Sunderland Central

Swindon South

Washington & Gateshead South

 

1am

Scottish seats 

 

2am

North West Essex 

Burnley 

Redcar

Rochdale 

 

3am

Godalming & Ash
Chichester

East Surrey 

Cheltenham 

Caerfyrddin
Portsmouth North 

Chingford & Woodford Green.

Islington North

Bristol Central 

 

4am
Richmond & Northallerton

Holborn & St Pancras

Clacton

Boston & Skegness.
North East Somerset and Hanham

Surrey Heath

 

5am

South West Norfolk
 

6am

Ilford North 

 

 

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,433]

Good fucking job Gillian strikes again

 

 

[Insane 325]

I just wanted to look at the latest electoral calculus poll and I think it’s the first one that gives the lib dems more then the tories 

 

edit: lol reform isn’t getting 63 seats

Edited Friday at 12:29 by Insane

[TQR 13,423]

To be honest a lot of the polls are so wild now, particularly non-MRP ones, that I’ve stopped paying attention. Reform wouldn’t even get 63 seats in the wettest of Crem’s dreams. And a window of 24-170 for the Tories? Tells you how little you can take from these things.

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,433]

Sam Freedman gives it a 20-25% Chance that Davey will be LOTO. Which is extrordinarily high. That would usually be near 0% chance

[JQW 248]

Electoral Calculus has Reform of all people winning this North Yorkshire seat with 57% of the vote, which is complete and utter nonsense. I suspect they're relying on on-line polls which are susceptible to bot activity.

[TQR 13,423]

Here are some stats you might not have seen before: voting intention in relation to favourite tipple.

 

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,433]

 

 

 

Such a vile woman. Fingers crossed she's out on her arse this time next week

 

 

 

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,433]

You know things are bad when the Tories are even losing the Pimms Brigade.....

 

 

[TQR 13,423]

29 minutes ago, DCI Frank Burnside said:

You know things are bad when the Tories are even losing the Pimms Brigade.....

 

 

 

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,433]

Oops 

[Sean 6,086]

3 hours ago, Insane said:

I just wanted to look at the latest electoral calculus poll and I think it’s the first one that gives the lib dems more then the tories 

 

edit: lol reform isn’t getting 63 seats

They were saying the other day that reform were predicted 18 seats now 6.Seems implausible under FPTP.

[RoverAndOut 4,069]

1 hour ago, Sean said:

They were saying the other day that reform were predicted 18 seats now 6.Seems implausible under FPTP.

 

Not totally implausible, if Farage and Tice were both to win and Anderson held on to his seat, that's 3. If Telford listens to the Tory defector (less likely), that would be 4. It's doable, but they need everything to fall their way and I think their progress has stalled and Farage finally shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. It's probably Farage and Anderson at best.

[BuffaloPhil 729]

Was talking to my boss about voting intentions today. Our constituency is a straight fight between the incumbent Con and the LibDem leader of the local council.

 

He's voting Con because the LibDem lady used to work in the sandwich shop where we work, and once fucked up his sandwich.

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,433]

Are we sure Labour  don't have someone on the inside 

 

 

 

 

The obsession with Rayner is odd given her popularity

[gcreptile 10,449]

Angela Rayner must have replaced Diane Abbott as the conservatives' favourite boogeywoman, as there always has to be a woman from the centre-left party who is implied to be too close to communism and too soft on crime in her spare time.

[msc 18,038]

28 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

Angela Rayner must have replaced Diane Abbott as the conservatives' favourite boogeywoman, as there always has to be a woman from the centre-left party who is implied to be too close to communism and too soft on crime in her spare time.

Also they want her to go hard on them in her spare time instead.

[The Old Crem 3,311]

2 hours ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

Not totally implausible, if Farage and Tice were both to win and Anderson held on to his seat, that's 3. If Telford listens to the Tory defector (less likely), that would be 4. It's doable, but they need everything to fall their way and I think their progress has stalled and Farage finally shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. It's probably Farage and Anderson at best.

Telford seems unlikely. Labour have been campaigning hard to regain it. Great Yarmouth and/or Castle Point are more likely Reform gains. Or even a Barnsley seat from Labour. . 

[RoverAndOut 4,069]

Just catching up with Keir Starmer's interview with Paul Brand and he mentioned he's 17 years older than the Prime Minister. I knew Keir was 61 but it occurred to me that the last 2 changes of government have both been won by young leaders - Blair then Cameron. Thought I'd see when the last 60-something came to power (I'm not counting those who became leader and Prime Minister between elections). Obviously Churchill was 77 when he returned to power, but he'd already done the job. Astonished to discover that nobody older than Sir Keir has been elected as a new Prime Minister since Clement Attlee (62) in 1945! Before that it was Bonar Law in 1922 (he was 64 and died the following year).

 

Prior to Sir Keir, the last older Prime Minister to assume office was Jim Callaghan, who was 64 in 1976 when he took office from Wilson, although he had already undertaken all 3 other Great Offices of State by then. Theresa May, John Major and Margaret Thatcher were all older than Starmer currently is when they left office (interestingly, Brown wasn't yet 60 when he left office).

 

 

[The Old Crem 3,311]

She clearly doesn’t know David’s personal circumstances at all. 

[The Old Crem 3,311]

We could be seeing multiple Pro Gaza independent or worker party candidates getting elected. . 

[The Old Crem 3,311]

2 hours ago, gcreptile said:

Angela Rayner must have replaced Diane Abbott as the conservatives' favourite boogeywoman, as there always has to be a woman from the centre-left party who is implied to be too close to communism and too soft on crime in her spare time.

The progressive left have started to turn on anyway on Twitter for some comments she has made regarding protecting single sex spaces. 

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,433]

 

 

 

[BuffaloPhil 729]

Not sure what all the Tory waffle about a "dangerous super-majority" is about - what exactly could Labour do with a majority of 300 that they couldn't with a majority of 30?