Clorox Bleachman 2,410 Posted June 27 Well then. The only one I agreed with all 5 parties on was pensions. 2 parties are crying out for votes from that demographic, so show compassion in ways they don't towards migrants, students, carers, single parents and the disabled. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,582 Posted June 28 The Times hour by hour guide of seats to watch. 11pm Blyth and Ashington Houghton & Sunderland South 12am Basildon & Billericay Sunderland Central Swindon South Washington & Gateshead South 1am Scottish seats 2am North West Essex Burnley Redcar Rochdale 3am Godalming & Ash Chichester East Surrey Cheltenham Caerfyrddin Portsmouth North Chingford & Woodford Green. Islington North Bristol Central 4am Richmond & Northallerton Holborn & St Pancras Clacton Boston & Skegness. North East Somerset and Hanham Surrey Heath 5am South West Norfolk 6am Ilford North Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DCI Frank Burnside 3,887 Posted June 28 Good fucking job Gillian strikes again Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Insane 349 Posted June 28 (edited) I just wanted to look at the latest electoral calculus poll and I think it’s the first one that gives the lib dems more then the tories edit: lol reform isn’t getting 63 seats Edited June 28 by Insane 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 14,386 Posted June 28 To be honest a lot of the polls are so wild now, particularly non-MRP ones, that I’ve stopped paying attention. Reform wouldn’t even get 63 seats in the wettest of Crem’s dreams. And a window of 24-170 for the Tories? Tells you how little you can take from these things. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DCI Frank Burnside 3,887 Posted June 28 Sam Freedman gives it a 20-25% Chance that Davey will be LOTO. Which is extrordinarily high. That would usually be near 0% chance 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JQW 281 Posted June 28 Electoral Calculus has Reform of all people winning this North Yorkshire seat with 57% of the vote, which is complete and utter nonsense. I suspect they're relying on on-line polls which are susceptible to bot activity. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 14,386 Posted June 28 Here are some stats you might not have seen before: voting intention in relation to favourite tipple. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DCI Frank Burnside 3,887 Posted June 28 Such a vile woman. Fingers crossed she's out on her arse this time next week 5 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DCI Frank Burnside 3,887 Posted June 28 You know things are bad when the Tories are even losing the Pimms Brigade..... 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 14,386 Posted June 28 29 minutes ago, DCI Frank Burnside said: You know things are bad when the Tories are even losing the Pimms Brigade..... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sean 6,314 Posted June 28 3 hours ago, Insane said: I just wanted to look at the latest electoral calculus poll and I think it’s the first one that gives the lib dems more then the tories edit: lol reform isn’t getting 63 seats They were saying the other day that reform were predicted 18 seats now 6.Seems implausible under FPTP. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RoverAndOut 4,746 Posted June 28 1 hour ago, Sean said: They were saying the other day that reform were predicted 18 seats now 6.Seems implausible under FPTP. Not totally implausible, if Farage and Tice were both to win and Anderson held on to his seat, that's 3. If Telford listens to the Tory defector (less likely), that would be 4. It's doable, but they need everything to fall their way and I think their progress has stalled and Farage finally shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. It's probably Farage and Anderson at best. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BuffaloPhil 926 Posted June 28 Was talking to my boss about voting intentions today. Our constituency is a straight fight between the incumbent Con and the LibDem leader of the local council. He's voting Con because the LibDem lady used to work in the sandwich shop where we work, and once fucked up his sandwich. 3 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DCI Frank Burnside 3,887 Posted June 28 Are we sure Labour don't have someone on the inside The obsession with Rayner is odd given her popularity 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gcreptile 10,966 Posted June 28 Angela Rayner must have replaced Diane Abbott as the conservatives' favourite boogeywoman, as there always has to be a woman from the centre-left party who is implied to be too close to communism and too soft on crime in her spare time. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
msc 18,438 Posted June 28 28 minutes ago, gcreptile said: Angela Rayner must have replaced Diane Abbott as the conservatives' favourite boogeywoman, as there always has to be a woman from the centre-left party who is implied to be too close to communism and too soft on crime in her spare time. Also they want her to go hard on them in her spare time instead. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,582 Posted June 28 2 hours ago, RoverAndOut said: Not totally implausible, if Farage and Tice were both to win and Anderson held on to his seat, that's 3. If Telford listens to the Tory defector (less likely), that would be 4. It's doable, but they need everything to fall their way and I think their progress has stalled and Farage finally shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. It's probably Farage and Anderson at best. Telford seems unlikely. Labour have been campaigning hard to regain it. Great Yarmouth and/or Castle Point are more likely Reform gains. Or even a Barnsley seat from Labour. . Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RoverAndOut 4,746 Posted June 28 Just catching up with Keir Starmer's interview with Paul Brand and he mentioned he's 17 years older than the Prime Minister. I knew Keir was 61 but it occurred to me that the last 2 changes of government have both been won by young leaders - Blair then Cameron. Thought I'd see when the last 60-something came to power (I'm not counting those who became leader and Prime Minister between elections). Obviously Churchill was 77 when he returned to power, but he'd already done the job. Astonished to discover that nobody older than Sir Keir has been elected as a new Prime Minister since Clement Attlee (62) in 1945! Before that it was Bonar Law in 1922 (he was 64 and died the following year). Prior to Sir Keir, the last older Prime Minister to assume office was Jim Callaghan, who was 64 in 1976 when he took office from Wilson, although he had already undertaken all 3 other Great Offices of State by then. Theresa May, John Major and Margaret Thatcher were all older than Starmer currently is when they left office (interestingly, Brown wasn't yet 60 when he left office). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,582 Posted June 28 She clearly doesn’t know David’s personal circumstances at all. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,582 Posted June 28 We could be seeing multiple Pro Gaza independent or worker party candidates getting elected. . Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,582 Posted June 28 2 hours ago, gcreptile said: Angela Rayner must have replaced Diane Abbott as the conservatives' favourite boogeywoman, as there always has to be a woman from the centre-left party who is implied to be too close to communism and too soft on crime in her spare time. The progressive left have started to turn on anyway on Twitter for some comments she has made regarding protecting single sex spaces. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BuffaloPhil 926 Posted June 29 Not sure what all the Tory waffle about a "dangerous super-majority" is about - what exactly could Labour do with a majority of 300 that they couldn't with a majority of 30? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
