DCI Frank Burnside 3,846 Posted June 3 YouGov is a plausible result IMO Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DCI Frank Burnside 3,846 Posted June 3 Great Fucking Job Keegan's seat in danger under the YouGov one. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 14,317 Posted June 3 YouGov reckons Labour on 422, Tories on 140; a working majority of 194. That’s bigger than Blair’s, and the biggest since Baldwin’s 100 years ago. It reckons losses include cabinet ministers Jeremy C-hunt, Corinne Shapps, Penny Dreadful, Alex Chalk, Gillian Fuckinggood-Job, Victoria Prentis, David Davies, Mel Stride, Mark Harper and Johnny Mercer. BrexitHardManSteve Baker, Bin Afolami and Lee Rowley also in trouble. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
YoungWillz 20,700 Posted June 3 Rees-Mogg projected to lose? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 14,317 Posted June 3 3 minutes ago, YoungWillz said: Rees-Mogg projected to lose? Yep; leaning Labour. Dan Norris, Mayor of the West of England and MP for Wansdyke from 1997-2010, is their candidate. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DCI Frank Burnside 3,846 Posted June 3 If anyone is doing a drinking game for each loss they'll be in a bad way all day Friday and probably Sat too Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Brad252 765 Posted June 3 There are a lot of Tory hold seats on that poll, especially in the south, that the Tories would actually lose if tactical voting gets somewhere, we're talking only a few % in it, such as Tunbridge Wells plus Glastonbury & Somerton. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
msc 18,289 Posted June 3 1 hour ago, DCI Frank Burnside said: Outcome I reckon will be somewhere in between this one and the ones that had them on 60odd and 70odd. Everyone is trying MRP now but I'll wait for the YouGov one as they have a proven track record in getting the gist correct with them. 39 minutes ago, TQR said: YouGov reckons Labour on 422, Tories on 140; a working majority of 194. That’s bigger than Blair’s, and the biggest since Baldwin’s 100 years ago. Fucking hell! 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,450 Posted June 3 48 minutes ago, TQR said: YouGov reckons Labour on 422, Tories on 140; a working majority of 194. That’s bigger than Blair’s, and the biggest since Baldwin’s 100 years ago. It reckons losses include cabinet ministers Jeremy C-hunt, Corinne Shapps, Penny Dreadful, Alex Chalk, Gillian Fuckinggood-Job, Victoria Prentis, David Davies and Johnny Mercer. BrexitHardManSteve Baker, Bin Afolami and Lee Rowley also in trouble. Steve Baker’s seat is even described as Safe for Labour because Emma Reynolds majority could be that big there Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RoverAndOut 4,672 Posted June 3 1 hour ago, DCI Frank Burnside said: If Farage still doesn't win a seat in somewhere like Clacton in this climate it will undoubtedly be one of the funniest things of the election He blamed Tory fraud for failing to win in 2015, when he lost in Thanet South by a couple of thousand votes, so don't worry. If he doesn't win, it will be someone else's fault: the dark forces of the state denying him a voice. Suspect he's only standing because it's a slam dunk victory for him unfortunately. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DCI Frank Burnside 3,846 Posted June 3 Tremendous 1 6 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DCI Frank Burnside 3,846 Posted June 3 45 minutes ago, DCI Frank Burnside said: Tremendous Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DCI Frank Burnside 3,846 Posted June 3 Ironically a party also called Reform caused issue for the Canadian Tories in 1993 as well Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 14,317 Posted June 3 Just incase you were running low on reasons why Rishi Sunak is a cunt, here's Jon Richardson with another: (YT link won't embed cos there's an emoji in the title) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Father Brown 198 Posted June 3 Farage standing in Clacton means he's pretty much restricted to travelling the constituency AND it'll split the Tory vote there. Doing us all a favour it seems! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DCI Frank Burnside 3,846 Posted June 3 Watching this has gotten me thinking as to who will be the "Michael Forsyth" of 2024. If the declaration times are broadly similar to 2019. It'll be after 3am but we'd then potentially get a load of them in the space of an hour or so. Based on 2019 Mordunt is potentially the 1st up closely followed by David TC Davies https://electionresults.parliament.uk/general-elections/4/declaration-times Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RoverAndOut 4,672 Posted June 3 4 minutes ago, DCI Frank Burnside said: Watching this has gotten me thinking as to who will be the "Michael Forsyth" of 2024. If the declaration times are broadly similar to 2019. It'll be after 3am but we'd then potentially get a load of them in the space of an hour or so. Based on 2019 Mordunt is potentially the 1st up closely followed by David TC Davies https://electionresults.parliament.uk/general-elections/4/declaration-times For those keeping score, Dimbleby announced mid-morning that 7 Cabinet Ministers lost their seat on Election Night 97, which was a record. Might not be anymore... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
maryportfuncity 10,475 Posted June 3 4 hours ago, RoverAndOut said: He blamed Tory fraud for failing to win in 2015, when he lost in Thanet South by a couple of thousand votes, so don't worry. If he doesn't win, it will be someone else's fault: the dark forces of the state denying him a voice. Suspect he's only standing because it's a slam dunk victory for him unfortunately. He had a point to be fair, they dragged in money over and above their allowed spend, because they were bricking it that he'd win. One of the staffers helping Craig Mackinlay win that time - Marion Little - was eventually fined and given a suspended sentence for the way she handled funds. Mackinlay was interviewed under caution. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RoverAndOut 4,672 Posted June 3 2 minutes ago, maryportfuncity said: He had a point to be fair, they dragged in money over and above their allowed spend, because they were bricking it that he'd win. One of the staffers helping Craig Mackinlay win that time - Marion Little - was eventually fined and given a suspended sentence for the way she handled funds. Mackinlay was interviewed under caution. Fraudsters defrauding fraudsters. My heart bleeds. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RoverAndOut 4,672 Posted June 3 5 hours ago, The Old Crem said: Just for the hilarity of how ridiculously preposterous this poll is (48% for Labour, really?) but Electoral Calculus says Labour would have a majority of 388. They would hold all bar 131 seats in the entire House of Commons. The Tories would have 58, Lib Dems 37. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DCI Frank Burnside 3,846 Posted June 3 23 minutes ago, DCI Frank Burnside said: Watching this has gotten me thinking as to who will be the "Michael Forsyth" of 2024. If the declaration times are broadly similar to 2019. It'll be after 3am but we'd then potentially get a load of them in the space of an hour or so. Based on 2019 Mordunt is potentially the 1st up closely followed by David TC Davies https://electionresults.parliament.uk/general-elections/4/declaration-times This is of course on the assumption that Badenoch keeps her seat (which I assume and expect she does). If she doesn't then hoo boy we're likely into some sort of Canada '93 territory not as low as 2 but definitely the Tories only ending up with MP's in double figures. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
