President al-Assad of Syria

[maryportfuncity 10,684]

57 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

Sky News reporting that he and his family are in Moscow. 

 

 

Ooohhh, that'll feel a bit cold after Syria

[ObakeFilter 964]

1 hour ago, The Old Crem said:

Sky News reporting that he and his family are in Moscow. 

If he is really dead and they are pulling off a weekend at bernie's this is going to be the funniest thing ever. 

[Toast 16,232]

I thought I had him in a deadpool somewhere but apparently not.  Disappointment cancelled.

[The Old Crem 3,628]

Be interesting to see how Syria deals with the probable mass return of refugees and how politics in likely moves in some European countries towards debating if to encourage the departure of even those who have taken up their current countries citizenship. 

[Brad252 821]

https://x.com/LuisMorenolg/status/1865481929602023463

 

[gcreptile 11,066]

1 hour ago, The Old Crem said:

Be interesting to see how Syria deals with the probable mass return of refugees and how politics in likely moves in some European countries towards debating if to encourage the departure of even those who have taken up their current countries citizenship. 

It's always the well-educated people who leave. Syria will be fine. I actually thought it was rather cynical when Europe, and especially Angela Merkel decided to accept the Syrian refugees in 2015. It bleeds those countries dry. And European economies might almost wish for conflict abroad if it nets them more labour. (Which is why the Tories didn't manage to curb immigration - they didn't want to. Old school conservatives, like Ronald Reagan and Helmut Kohl actually never really do.)

[arghton 6,867]

6 hours ago, The Old Crem said:

Sky News reporting that he and his family are in Moscow. 

Not the only former dictator or dictator wannabe there. Viktor Yanukovych, Askar Akayev and Kurmanbek Bakiyev are living there too as far as I know. Maybe others. 

 

Hopefully Syria will become an atleast somewhat democratic country and not an extremist shithole as Afghanistan. I personally don't trust al-Julani or Sheikh Osama al-Rifai who also seems to potentially hold a lot of power here.

[The Old Crem 3,628]

1 hour ago, gcreptile said:

It's always the well-educated people who leave. Syria will be fine. I actually thought it was rather cynical when Europe, and especially Angela Merkel decided to accept the Syrian refugees in 2015. It bleeds those countries dry. And European economies might almost wish for conflict abroad if it nets them more labour. (Which is why the Tories didn't manage to curb immigration - they didn't want to. Old school conservatives, like Ronald Reagan and Helmut Kohl actually never really do.)

Not sure the majority of the refugees in Europe are from the middle class educated elite. 

[Insane 354]

Is there still time to change our ddp 2025 picks even if I already submitted it, i had him on it..

[gcreptile 11,066]

3 hours ago, The Old Crem said:

Not sure the majority of the refugees in Europe are from the middle class educated elite. 

Probably not, but we weren't talking about all of them, but about the Syrians. The former are often "economic" refugees. The latter are those actually fleeing from war and the Assad government. 

[Bentrovato 1,104]

I wonder how long it will be until the useless baggage/embarrassment that is al-Assad accidentally falls out of a window/is involved in a car crash/crashes his light aircraft/eats some dodgy seafood etc?

[An Fear Beag 1,560]

I am not nearly as well versed as others on this forum about middle-eastern politics, and I find the whole thing to be very confusing at times. This my current understanding of what is happening:

 

The rebels are currently considered the Good Guys, because they are fighting against Al-Assad, who is officially a Bad Man who is supported by Russia and Iran. 

 

So we are hoping they win and Al-Assads regime is toppled (which seems to have already happened). Until, of course, they actually take control of the country. At that point, we will suddenly remember that they are actually blood-thirsty Jihadists, with links to Al-Qaeda, and they will then take their turn as the Bad Guys. While the country, and possible wider region, descends into chaos yet again.

 

I realise that it is far more complicated and nuanced than that, but have I got the general gist right?

[YoungWillz 21,189]

21 minutes ago, An Fear Beag said:

I am not nearly as well versed as others on this forum about middle-eastern politics, and I find the whole thing to be very confusing at times. This my current understanding of what is happening:

 

The rebels are currently considered the Good Guys, because they are fighting against Al-Assad, who is officially a Bad Man who is supported by Russia and Iran. 

 

So we are hoping they win and Al-Assads regime is toppled (which seems to have already happened). Until, of course, they actually take control of the country. At that point, we will suddenly remember that they are actually blood-thirsty Jihadists, with links to Al-Qaeda, and they will then take their turn as the Bad Guys. While the country, and possible wider region, descends into chaos yet again.

 

I realise that it is far more complicated and nuanced than that, but have I got the general gist right?

I think so.

 

Israel have moved in with their forces. The US reportedly carries out precision bombing. Way to go to win over the rebels, a proscribed organisation.

 

Carved up like the Balkans? A ruling bunch of ragbag rebels? How about those Kurds, who have been attacked by everybody since at least when I was at Uni?

 

Game of Risk, anyone?

[Thatcher 2,470]

29 minutes ago, An Fear Beag said:

I am not nearly as well versed as others on this forum about middle-eastern politics, and I find the whole thing to be very confusing at times. This my current understanding of what is happening:

 

The rebels are currently considered the Good Guys, because they are fighting against Al-Assad, who is officially a Bad Man who is supported by Russia and Iran. 

 

So we are hoping they win and Al-Assads regime is toppled (which seems to have already happened). Until, of course, they actually take control of the country. At that point, we will suddenly remember that they are actually blood-thirsty Jihadists, with links to Al-Qaeda, and they will then take their turn as the Bad Guys. While the country, and possible wider region, descends into chaos yet again.

 

I realise that it is far more complicated and nuanced than that, but have I got the general gist right?

That’s about right. The rebel group that are leading the charge are currently on the UK’s terror list, though that is likely to be reviewed. 
 

Everyone agrees Assad is an oppressive dictator, and it’s certainly to be welcomed he’s no longer in power and that regime has fallen. Though the adage out of the frying pan and into the fire comes to mind. Whenever these Middle Eastern countries overthrow a dictator it is a chaotic free for fall to seize power (Hussain, Gaddafi et. al). 
 

I think people occasionally see these liberations through the lens of the Cold War where communist regimes were generally transitioned to functioning democracies. That is not the case with Middle Eastern countries, compounded by the fact that examples of democracies in the Middle East are few and far between. 

[prussianblue 1,067]

9 hours ago, Bentrovato said:

I wonder how long it will be until the useless baggage/embarrassment that is al-Assad accidentally falls out of a window/is involved in a car crash/crashes his light aircraft/eats some dodgy seafood etc?

 

Tbf, Assad actually has valuable skills, especially in a country that's suffered a brain drain like Russia has. He can get a decent job in a Muscovite eye hospital. 

[An Fear Beag 1,560]

26 minutes ago, Thatcher said:

 The rebel group that are leading the charge are currently on the UK’s terror list, though that is likely to be reviewed. 
 

 

Why? Because they won?

[MortalCaso 1,640]

4 minutes ago, An Fear Beag said:

Why? Because they won?

Of course. Look what is happening with the Taliban.

[prussianblue 1,067]

34 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

I think so.

 

Israel have moved in with their forces. The US reportedly carries out precision bombing. Way to go to win over the rebels, a proscribed organisation.

 

Carved up like the Balkans? A ruling bunch of ragbag rebels? How about those Kurds, who have been attacked by everybody since at least when I was at Uni?

 

Game of Risk, anyone?

 

I wonder if the rebels will let the Kurds formally secede or at least 'grant' extensive autonomy, rather than attempt to reassert central control over a large area that's been de facto independent for several years now.

[Bentrovato 1,104]

38 minutes ago, prussianblue said:

 

Tbf, Assad actually has valuable skills, especially in a country that's suffered a brain drain like Russia has. He can get a decent job in a Muscovite eye hospital. 

Not sure Putin thinks like that. Jobs for the failed boys. And al-Assad's skills and studies are very much last century.  I give him until his wife pegs it.

[arghton 6,867]

I don't have a wide knowledge on this subject but there seems to be many very different rebel groups, out of which al-Julani's one is the most powerful currently. Quite a mess if you read about those.

 

(Some) Main players seem to be:

Abu Mohammad al-Julani - Emir of Tahrir al-Sham. Radicalized at 17 or 18 and joined Al-Qaeda, rose through ranks and was imprisoned by US forces in Iraq in the late 2000s. After being freed, had some tension with Al-Qaeda's leadership. Established Al-Nusra Front (originally the Al-Qaeda branch in Syria - two birds with one stone as the Al-Qaeda leadership got him away from Iraq) through an agreement with ISIS caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Eventually started having disagreements with al-Baghdadi that ended in armed clashes during which he was supported by Al-Qaeda head al-Zawahiri. After the forming of Tahrir al-Sham in 2017 he also went against Al-Qaeda to get Western support. He has ruled parts of Idlib with an iron first for a few years, crushing dissidents. Now he has pledged to support minority groups and help rebuild the country, but will that happen? Probably not. His largest problem is allegedly the infighting in Tahrir al-Sham.

Hadi al-Bahra - Second main opposition figure, head of Syrian National Army, Syrian Interim Government, Syrian National Revolutionary Coalition and a billion smaller groups working under these. Strongly supported by Turkey. Called for an 18 month transition period yesterday. Seems to have very strong ties with al-Julani.

Mohammed al-Bashir - A nobody two weeks ago, named transitional Prime Minister today. Said to be the man behind economic prosper in al-Julani's Idlib. Engineer, former department head at a gas plant.

Abdurrahman Mustafa - Syrian Turkmen politician and Prime Minister of the umbrella opposition group Syrian Interim Government. Risen in power since 2014 and has been supported by multiple countries. A bit invisible the last days. Seems less a major leader and more a right-hand man of al-Bahra. 

Abu Jaber Shaykh - Shura council head of al-Julani's Tahrir al-Sham. Has resigned or been kicked out of some previous groups. Used to be a critic of al-Julani's former group. 

Salem Turki al-Antri - Head of the US, UK and France-supported, US-trained Revolutionary Commando Army. Former officer in Assad's army. Also allegedly a former member of ISIS.

Mazloum Abdi - Head of the Kurdish US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. Doesn't really seem on friendly terms with anyone but has called for dialogue.

Sheikh Osama al-Rifai - Grand Mufti of Syria. Has given multiple speeches in the last week - first he warned against harming civilians, today he has warned against sedition and has called for the people to cooperate. He has previously been very anti-West, god knows what his actual motives now are but I doubt he supports democracy. 

[prussianblue 1,067]

Worth noting that Syrians generally aren't strongly religious and have an understandable aversion to extremism of any flavour. Whether that realpolitik makes this alphabet soup of groups moderate their stances and cooperate remains to be seen.

[One shot Paddy 1,209]

2 hours ago, Bentrovato said:

Not sure Putin thinks like that. Jobs for the failed boys. And al-Assad's skills and studies are very much last century.  I give him until his wife pegs it.

 

 

[drol 12,130]

And now the question no one but deadpoolers care about: what will happen to elder cronies of Assad?

 

Najah al-Attar, 91, served as VP until the regime's fall. Farouk al-Sharaa is 86. Elder reviled henchmen Ali Aslan and Rauf al-Kasm are both 92. 

 

Will they finish in a mass grave? Will they be exiled? Simply no one gives a single fuck then they will die in obscurity?

[arghton 6,867]

I googled al-Attar earlier. There's lots of resentment against her currently, but I don't think she's made any public appearances in a while. Might be ill? al-Sharaa has said that the regime change is welcome. 

 

There's some talk on Arab facebook and twitter about the possibility of former VP Shibli al-Aysami still being alive. Extremely unlikely, he was kidnapped in 2011 and would be 99 now. However I wouldn't be suprised if others kidnapped turned out alive - Austin Tice reportedly is.

 

Edit: Funny. Didn't notice there's a report of al-Julani's death on page 3. 

[Youth in Asia 1,088]

12 hours ago, Bentrovato said:

Not sure Putin thinks like that. Jobs for the failed boys. And al-Assad's skills and studies are very much last century.  I give him until his wife pegs it.

His wife can't be too happy at having to exchange the designer lifestyle as presidential wife, to cold and miserable Moscow with all the other ex dictators and their families.