The Ukraine Crisis

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

On 11/03/2022 at 20:49, Lord Fellatio Nelson said:

The only reason Putin wants foreign fighters to join in on the invasion is to reduce the amount of fatalities within the Russian armed forces.

They may be cannon fodder to him but more and more are dead and will not be going home and the implications for any support for the invasion back in Russia is obvious.

 

Fairly certain that Syrian mercenaries aren't going to feel the same sense of shared history and brotherly spirit that some of the Russians feel towards Ukraine either. Kill as many Ukrainians as you can as quickly as you can for Comrade Putin.

[the_engineer 1,415]

Another potential escalation point has emerged with Putin saying arms shipments are legit targets. I imagine that British, American and other western ships are being used to transport them. If Russia engages and destroys western arms shipments and kills , Britons or Americans etc during the attack would that be seen as a declaration of war and how would that country respond?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/12/arms-shipments-are-a-legitimate-military-target-kremlin-warns-west

 

[prussianblue 1,027]

Kadyrov seemingly is or was north of Kyiv with the Chechan contingent. Is it too much to hope for that the Ukrainians get lucky or the indiscriminate Russian bombardment generates a friendly fire incident?

[drol 11,944]

5 hours ago, prussianblue said:

Kadyrov seemingly is or was north of Kyiv with the Chechan contingent. Is it too much to hope for that the Ukrainians to get lucky or the indiscriminate Russian bombardment generates a friendly fire incident?

Kadyrov has said "Ukrainians will be finished if they don't give up" and wants to be the first commander to enter in Kyiv. I hope a bullet is waiting for his fucking head.

[DevonDeathTrip 2,358]

An interesting new development 

 

 

[The Old Crem 3,583]

I can see Zelinksy trying to get a peace deal past his own people but then being ousted as I don’t think even ruling out nato (the ‘least’ controversial compromise) will be accepted. However that could well then see Russia turn to just bombing Kyiv to the ground with no attempt to capture it. 

[prussianblue 1,027]

Saw John Simpson comparing it to the Winter War between the USSR and Finland. Much larger and more powerful state thinks it'll easily conquer a neighbour, but faces fierce resistance and gets bogged down with weather, terrain and logistical problems.

He was suggesting that the outcome of this war may well be similar, a face-saving peace treaty, the invaded country swallowing some territorial losses to maintain independence for the vast majority of the country. As with the Finns post-WWII, Ukraine could pledge to become a neutral state (so no NATO, EU aspirations less clear-cut).

This all seems logical, but it really all depends how logical Putin is feeling!

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

On 16/03/2022 at 10:03, The Old Crem said:

I can see Zelinksy trying to get a peace deal past his own people but then being ousted as I don’t think even ruling out nato (the ‘least’ controversial compromise) will be accepted. However that could well then see Russia turn to just bombing Kyiv to the ground with no attempt to capture it. 

 

Zelensky is a savvy political operator and a superb orator. He's already addressing his citizens by saying we're probably not going to join NATO, they clearly don't want us and haven't really helped us. Puts the blame on NATO, which they can manage with, and give Putin something to say to the masses back home to claim some pyrrhic victory. The Ukrainians want the war to stop and want to remain an independent country. If joining NATO has to go on hold (perhaps permanently), I think most would accept that, so long as it wasn't because Putin told them to (and Zelinsky's trying to spin it away from that already).

[arghton 6,715]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-23/putin-adviser-chubais-quits-over-ukraine-war-and-leaves-russia

Anatoly Chubais has left Russia. Highest level official to quit this far. 

 

Oh and Defence Minister Shoigu reportedly hasn't been seen in two weeks.

[ladyfiona 2,578]

Roman Abramovich was apparently poisoned during peace talks. (BBC)

[CastAway 488]

I'm including no tweets or articles here due to the graphic nature of the images attached. 

 

However, horrific reports are tricking in from Bucha, a suburb of Kyiv. The city of about 30k people (population per Wikipedia) was liberated from Russian troops just over a day ago. Now, images of dead civilians lying on the roads with their hands tied behind their backs are coming out, as well as reports that the Russians went door-to-door and killed every man of fighting age (between 18-60). 

[The Old Crem 3,583]

What affect would gas and electricity rationing have on European society. It’s going to have to come but I am not sure if people in places like Germany and Italy will be willing to sacrifice stuff for too long for Ukrainians. Not after two years of Covid lockdowns as well. People are always rightly outraged until it actually affects them.

[ladyfiona 2,578]

It depends if Ukraine gets access to the oil they recently discovered which is by Crimea/Odessa. If they win back Crimea/Odessa etc they will have access to oil fields and they can then trade with rest of Europe when things calm the fuck down.

[The Old Crem 3,583]

44 minutes ago, ladyfiona said:

It depends if Ukraine gets access to the oil they recently discovered which is by Crimea/Odessa. If they win back Crimea/Odessa etc they will have access to oil fields and they can then trade with rest of Europe when things calm the fuck down.

I suspect Russia will more likely start a nuclear war than let the Ukraine capture it.

[Toast 16,137]

12 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

I suspect Russia will more likely start a nuclear war than let the Ukraine capture it.

 

I see your usual optimism is on display.

[The Old Crem 3,583]

Does anyone have any good reasons why NATO should now not get involved. Putin’s troops are committing genocide and NATO has rightly got involved  in genocide before!

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,218]

8 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

Does anyone have any good reasons why NATO should now not get involved. Putin’s troops are committing genocide and NATO has rightly got involved  in genocide before!

Because it suits everybody to keep the war in one country rather than have the whole of fucking Europe having their streets bombed etc.

Also, in case you haven't figured it out, Russia is losing and are pulling out of all other areas to regroup and try and take all of the disputed regions in Ukraine.

A face saving exercise because they have proved themselves to be fucking useless at fighting a war.

 

[ladyfiona 2,578]

The Ukrainian farmers have more tanks than Russia I think. I heard they stopped making tanks in Russia because ran out of spare parts.

[The Old Crem 3,583]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/09/firms-will-go-bust-germany-prepares-for-a-future-without-russian-gas
An interesting article about what is to come to Germany when the Gas is inevitably turned off soon. 

[CastAway 488]

 

Russia confirms major fire onboard the flagship of the Black Sea fleet, the Moskva. Per multiple Ukrainian sources, the cause of said fire was two anti-ship Neptune missiles hitting the Moskva. 

 

 

[Drewsky1211 4,734]

20 hours ago, CastAway said:

 

Russia confirms major fire onboard the flagship of the Black Sea fleet, the Moskva. Per multiple Ukrainian sources, the cause of said fire was two anti-ship Neptune missiles hitting the Moskva. 

 

 

 

 

 

Moskva sunk according to Russian state media.

 

[Toast 16,137]

[One shot Paddy 1,206]

[arghton 6,715]

Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin Press Secretary...

Comical Dmitry? Lying Dima? Pesky Peskov?

1 March: "We don’t have assets in the west. Punish all you want, not a big deal."

"Russian troops in Ukraine do not carry out strikes on residential complexes, that is out of the question"

16 March: "Putin’s emotional state is normal"

23 March: "Putin has not yet received information on why conscripts ended up in Ukraine"

7 April: "Russia is in Ukraine to prevent World War III"

13 April: "We categorically disagree and consider unacceptable any attempt to distort the situation in this way, especially since it is hardly acceptable for the president of the United States. U.S. has committed well-known deeds in modern and recent history."

15 April: "If Ukraine continues its provocations by attacking Russian cities, Russia will be forced to declare war against Ukraine"

22 April: "Russians have never hit any civilian targets in Ukraine"

[Great Uncle Bulgaria 1,282]

I don't get the assertions that Russia is losing. Certainly it's  not gone to plan for the Russians but nevertheless they've taken a lot of Ukraine territory and I don't see any reason why they won't continue to do so, particularly in the south (where they have much of the coast already) and the East. The Ukrainians don't have enough men and equipment on the ground. Clearly NATO (sensibly) doesn't want to get directly involved and the best case scenario is that an agreement is reached whereby Russia keeps what it's taken but undertakes not to try and take the rest of Ukraine (at least until it comes back for another go in 5 years' time when it is convinced it can get the rest of it more quickly than it has done this time). There's a lot of good will towards Ukraine in the West now but after a few months of fuel rationing, shortages of some foodstuffs, inflation etc  I think public opinion will selfishly tire of making 'sacrifices' to support them.