By-Election Bingo

[YoungWillz 20,918]

 

Michelle Thomson (SNP, Edinburgh West) has had the whip withdrawn after being questioned over property deals and is currently sitting as an independent. I think this is your first by-election of the 2015 parliament.

 

That will be a damn shame as she was overlooked because of the wide variety of New untested SNP blood available.

 

Could be a gift to Corbyn though.

 

 

I have read through the finding of the Discipline Tribunal on the solicitor who was struck off. Indeed, any one of the transactions in which he was involved would have justified his removal from the list of enrolled solicitors in Scotland, due to his failures in his legal duties to the appropriate mortgage lenders.

 

However, I don't detect any actual illegal activity on the part of the MP in question from the report. No doubt the investigation will clarify some aspects of the transactions, but unless there were deliberate instructions to perpetrate some form of mortgage fraud, I think she is likely to be cleared. There is no indication that the mortgages were defaulted upon or that the lenders have suffered any form of loss. Even if separate lawyers had been used, and the position declared to the lenders, I can see that the transactions would have likely progressed (personal knowledge of how things work up here). Highly dependent on valuations of property given by surveyors at each stage, yet no indication of wrongdoing on their part?

 

The lawyer was indeed a fool in respect of his dealings (most are, money in their account matters more than ethics, which is why I'm glad I'm out of it), but transactions like the ones in which this MP were involved with happen every day. I've no doubt two things are important here - first, the investigation will take some months and probably report just before the Scottish Parliament elections, and second, Corbyn was elected to get a quick win for Labour in Scotland next year (no coincidence he was up here today) and will be gone by 2020.

 

Simple smear campaign. Though this is the first time I've seen Sturgeon flustered at FMQs, she normally destroys the idiots in the other parties when they ask their questions. Wider public? Won't give a stuff by 2016.

[Bibliogryphon 9,509]

Zac Goldsmith is Tory candidate for London mayor that means that unless there is a shock result. A currently sitting MP will win the election. I am not sure what Zac's mini referendum in his constituency actually meant and whether it means he will continue in both roles until 2020.

[the_engineer 1,414]

http://news.sky.com/story/1568374/man-quizzed-after-abuse-victim-waives-anonymity

 

A 55 year old man has been questioned under caution by the police with regards to child abuse. It doesn't say if he is a current MP though this woman did say

he was an MP at the time of the abuse. The police said his identity would be anonymous until charge . Whether that means he will be charged or not i'm not sure

and whether he is still an MP is up in the air. If both of these turn out to be true we will definitely have a by election in his constituency. BRB Off to check 55 year old MP's he look a bit pervy .

[msc 18,397]

Oh, this is a follow up to the Liberal one from May by the looks of it. Which narrows things considerably, at a guess.

 

It would have kept an innocent family friend in the frame too if the Reaper hadn't removed him from suspicion earlier this year, in a manner of speaking.

[Sir Creep 7,069]

Only 4-3/4 years to go I know; still, it's disheartening every time someone says a possible name it's not only someone I don't have, they never seem to be anyone that ANYONE has :-( I should be more patient.

SC

[msc 18,397]

Only 4-3/4 years to go I know; still, it's disheartening every time someone says a possible name it's not only someone I don't have, they never seem to be anyone that ANYONE has :-( I should be more patient.

SC

 

I wouldn't worry: nine out of ten by-elections come entirely out of the blue.

 

I mention Jim Dobbin again, because no one had ever heard of him, until he died one night during a foreign junket, overdosing on Polish absinthe!

[Bibliogryphon 9,509]

Only 4-3/4 years to go I know; still, it's disheartening every time someone says a possible name it's not only someone I don't have, they never seem to be anyone that ANYONE has :-( I should be more patient.

SC

 

Patience is a key part of this game. We have less than 200 names in the game against 650 MPs so we have to understand we won't get them all. If I had allowed 50 picks per player then we might have got better coverage but if every player had picked each unique pick we would only have got 510.

 

Might review the rules for 2020 (if that is when the next election is)

[Sir Creep 7,069]

I'm kinda rooting for all of us right now, just to see if dumb luck provides a hit. Coulda simply picked the 20 eldest MPs but what fun is that. Review of rules for 2020 'I'll get right on that' haha

SC

[Handrejka 1,903]

Pity the Isle of Man doesn't count.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-isle-of-man-34504188

[gcreptile 10,939]

So is this a half-resignation? No idea....

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-34541099

[Deathray 2,940]

So is this a half-resignation? No idea....

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-34541099

Useless for our purposes

[Bibliogryphon 9,509]

Game ON

[Spade_Cooley 9,474]

It will be the first by-election in Oldham West and Royton (then known as Oldham West) since 1968, when Meacher himself was the losing candidate. Also, as a safe Labour seat, it'll be interesting to see who Corbyn picks as the anointed one for it.

[Bibliogryphon 9,509]

First scoreboard

 

Bibliogryphon - Bg 30

RockHopperPenguin - Rp 30

Shaun of the Dead - Sd 30

Rotton Ali - Ra 30

time -Tm (Party Time) 30

The Engineer - En 30

Voice of Young Maryport - Ym 30

Rover & Out - Ro (For Whom The Division Bell Tolls) 30

 

Young Wilz - Yw (No Seat For Rump Parliament)

Deathray - Dr

Sir Creep - Sc (Haq Attack)

Handrejka Hj

msc - Ms

Phantom - Ph

MPFC - Mp

The Dead Cow - Dc

Manuel - Mn

[Bibliogryphon 9,509]

Michael Meacher was the least picked of the four surviving MPs from the 1970 parliament.

[msc 18,397]

Michael Meacher was the least picked of the four surviving MPs from the 1970 parliament.

 

He was many people's picks for Father of the House in 2020!

[Bibliogryphon 9,509]

It will be the first by-election in Oldham West and Royton (then known as Oldham West) since 1968, when Meacher himself was the losing candidate. Also, as a safe Labour seat, it'll be interesting to see who Corbyn picks as the anointed one for it.

 

Unfortunately this means that the pressure is on Corbyn. Cameron can get his excuses in earlier and argue that even if he picked Harry Styles as the Conservative candidate they are never going to win in Oldham. There will be a lot of analysis of turnout and voting share. Labour have to win big on a good turnout. Might be a gift to UKIP.

[Bibliogryphon 9,509]

The timing of the by-election could be difficult because I don't think there is enough time for this to be held before Christmas and therefore may not end up being held until the end of February because

 

( It is inexpedient for by-elections to be held in August, or at the time of local elections in April/May, or in the period from mid-December to mid-February before (under present arrangements) a new Register is issued.

 

Not sure what the time scale is required from issuing a writ to actual date of the by-election.

[YoungWillz 20,918]

I thought long and hard about Michael Meacher, but lack of health history and the fact he stood again made me disregard him. Rest well, sir.

[msc 18,397]

At a guess, 19th or 26th November 2015.

[Deathray 2,940]

The timing of the by-election could be difficult because I don't think there is enough time for this to be held before Christmas and therefore may not end up being held until the end of February because

 

( It is inexpedient for by-elections to be held in August, or at the time of local elections in April/May, or in the period from mid-December to mid-February before (under present arrangements) a new Register is issued.

 

Not sure what the time scale is required from issuing a writ to actual date of the by-election.

It's around 6 weeks iirc.

[RoverAndOut 4,726]

Finally! I was beginning to think we weren't going to have a by-election at all! Great to get a success right out the gate and put a score on the board.

 

Regarding when the election could be held, it is quite common for them to be held just over a month after the vacancy emerges. I don't think Corbyn will want to wait until the new year to get it filled, not least as it increases the Tory majority slightly.

 

In the last parliament, both Manchester Central and Cardiff South and Penarth had vacancies on 22 October 2012 that were filled on 15 November 2012; Rotherham had a vacancy on 5 November 2012 and it was filled on 29 November; Middlesbrough had a vacancy on 13 October 2012 and it was filled on 29 November. So plenty of examples of it being held before Christmas.

 

Even closer, Feltham and Heston had a vacancy on 10 November 2012 and that was filled on 15 December, so plenty of scope to cram it in before Christmas. In all, there were 6 (SIX) by-elections between August and December 2012! Just think if we hit that kind of run now!!

[Spade_Cooley 9,474]

 

It will be the first by-election in Oldham West and Royton (then known as Oldham West) since 1968, when Meacher himself was the losing candidate. Also, as a safe Labour seat, it'll be interesting to see who Corbyn picks as the anointed one for it.

 

Unfortunately this means that the pressure is on Corbyn. Cameron can get his excuses in earlier and argue that even if he picked Harry Styles as the Conservative candidate they are never going to win in Oldham. There will be a lot of analysis of turnout and voting share. Labour have to win big on a good turnout. Might be a gift to UKIP.

 

 

An organised Ukip with a good ground game and a decent list of candidates would put up a fight against Labour in this seat, they polled 20.6% there last time out. As it is, they'll just field whichever retired Tory councillor they can find who hasn't upset Nige recently.

[maryportfuncity 10,616]

Michael Meacher was the least picked of the four surviving MPs from the 1970 parliament.

 

 

Aye, but The Voice of Young Maryport had him and I've already been reminded of this fact about seven times!

[rockhopper penguin 2,265]

Wow, joint first place on a death list for the first time ever - exciting! (also second on the list for a reason I can't work out but I'm not complaining).