Political Frailty

[Drewsky1211 4,730]

Former Ohio representative Bud Brown (served 1965 to 1983), as well as the acting Secretary of Commerce for a period in 1987, dead at 94.

 

 

Was also the father of Clancy Brown, best known as the voice of Mr. Krabs on SpongeBob.

[MortalCaso 1,624]

2 hours ago, Drewsky1211 said:

Former Ohio representative Bud Brown (served 1965 to 1983), as well as the acting Secretary of Commerce for a period in 1987, dead at 94.

 

 

Was also the father of Clancy Brown, best known as the voice of Mr. Krabs on SpongeBob.

At the time of his death:

 

14th Oldest Living (former or current) House Rep.

2nd Oldest Living Reagan Cabinet member. 12 members remain

 

Reminder, this helpful site exists for statistics such as those above.

[drol 11,920]

On 21/01/2022 at 18:19, arghton said:

https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/chandigarh-news/punjab-polls-parkash-singh-badal-managing-campaign-from-hospital-bed-101642785162875.html

Parkash Singh Badal stable and micromanaging his party's campaign from hospital.

Parkash to run for MLA.

 

 

[arghton 6,695]

Joseph Belmont, Seychelles VP 2004-2010 dead at 74 after long illness. He helped the small country become a popular tourist attraction with President James Michel. 

[Sir Creep 7,070]

The Office of North Dakota Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem announces he died unexpectedly Friday.

Stenehjem also served in the North Dakota Legislature for 24 years. He was in the House for four years and in the Senate for 20 years. He was chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee from 1995 to 2000.

SC

[Sean 6,311]

Labour MP Sir George Howarth still looks quite unwell.

 

 

[YoungWillz 21,025]

Liz Truss has the COVID.

 

Misses trip to Ukraine. Unmasked during the statement today.

 

Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

[The Old Crem 3,582]

Just now, YoungWillz said:

Liz Truss has the COVID.

 

Misses trip to Ukraine. Unmasked during the statement today.

 

Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

That’s not good timing. Does she take evening LFT’s? Most people take them in the morning. 

[Sean 6,311]

1 minute ago, YoungWillz said:

Liz Truss has the COVID.

 

Misses trip to Ukraine. Unmasked during the statement today.

 

Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

That is Boris back in hiding for another week then.

[Ulitzer95 12,576]

Shintaro Ishihara (wiki), former Governor of Tokyo for 13 years, dead at 89.

 

A past DDP pick (not this year though).

[gcreptile 10,963]

54 minutes ago, Ulitzer95 said:

Shintaro Ishihara (wiki), former Governor of Tokyo for 13 years, dead at 89.

 

A past DDP pick (not this year though).

picked him in a couple of things in the past, not this time though, sadly.

He was described as a Japanese Jean-Marie Le Pen.

[drol 11,920]

18 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

picked him in a couple of things in the past, not this time though, sadly.

He was described as a Japanese Jean-Marie Le Pen.

Today must be cuntday.

[Sir Creep 7,070]

Esteban Torres, who emerged from the Chicano civil rights movement in Southern California and went on to serve eight terms in Congress pushing for social and economic change to help empower Latinos, has died. He was 91.

Torres died Jan. 25 of natural causes.

SC

[Salmon Mousse 473]

6 hours ago, Ulitzer95 said:

Shintaro Ishihara (wiki), former Governor of Tokyo for 13 years, dead at 89.

 

A past DDP pick (not this year though).

 

Damn, found stories last year about him having pan can but "catching it early".  Decided to roll the dice on him in Alt Obits this year but ignored him everywhere else.

[gcreptile 10,963]

Ishihara's QO:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/japan-china-tokyo-beijing-kobe-b2004885.html

 

Bit annoyed at myself, but yes, I also read that his cancer was at an early stage. Well, even early pancreatic cancer has "only" 50% survival rate.

[Sir Creep 7,070]

7 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

Ishihara's QO:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/japan-china-tokyo-beijing-kobe-b2004885.html

 

Bit annoyed at myself, but yes, I also read that his cancer was at an early stage. Well, even early pancreatic cancer has "only" 50% survival rate.

That’s a 5-year survival rate, not 5 weeks 

[Joey Russ 7,220]

3 minutes ago, Sir Creep said:

That’s a 5-year survival rate, not 5 weeks 

Thank you Captain Obvious. Don’t think I would’ve figured it out otherwise…

[Sir Creep 7,070]

9 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

Thank you Captain Obvious. Don’t think I would’ve figured it out otherwise…

I bet you’re fun at parties.  

[gcreptile 10,963]

Well, I've wondered a bit about that. 1-year probability of survival is roughly twice the 5-year-survival. Say, stage IV brain cancer 5-year survival is 10%, and one year survival is 20% or something like that.

But the probability is not a straight line, but logarithmic, I.e. 50% survive in year one, 50% of 50% survive year two, etc...

So... if I find out about a stage IV cancer case in January 2022, what's the probability of dying in 2023? I guess "dying in 2023" is not the same as "dying before 2024". The difference is the probability of dying in 2022. So what's the probability of dying when I already know that the person has survived 2022 (when I want to pick them for the 2023 pools). I guess that's bayesian? 

[Sideik 236]

7 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

Well, I've wondered a bit about that. 1-year probability of survival is roughly twice the 5-year-survival. Say, stage IV brain cancer 5-year survival is 10%, and one year survival is 20% something like that.

But the probability is not a straight line, but logarithmic, I.e. 50% survive in year one, 50% of 50% survive year two, etc...

So... if I find out about a stage IV cancer case in January 2022, what's the probability of dying in 2023? I guess "dying in 2023" is not the same as "dying before 2024". The difference is the probability of dying in 2022. So what's the probability of dying when I already know that the person has survived 2022 (when I want to pick them for the 2023 pools). I guess that's bayesian? 

Not that simple in real context since p is not constant in time but I think geometric distribution is what you have in mind

[gcreptile 10,963]

15 minutes ago, Sideik said:

Not that simple in real context since p is not constant in time but I think geometric distribution is what you have in mind

Yes, I guess that's the crux of the matter. The p increases, which means, people get closer to the end the more time passes (with or without cancer).

And pancreatic cancer can move very fast once it moves. Also, Shintaro Ishihara was already old, so I think picking him for 2022 might have been roughly a 50:50 bet. 

 

Edit: Maybe a little lower because I didn't think he'd obit with absolute certainty.

[Salmon Mousse 473]

1 hour ago, Sir Creep said:

That’s a 5-year survival rate, not 5 weeks 

 

Found out about his pan can in late 2020.  Had him rostered on one of my DSCDP teams all last year and just sort of gave up on him (other than Alt Obits) after he failed to keel over... which is something that I let happen way too often.

[Sir Creep 7,070]

Former Portland (OR) Mayor Bud Clark died Tuesday, his daughter confirmed.  The cause of death was congestive heart failure, his daughter said.

He was 90.  He served as mayor from 1985 to 1992.  He ran for mayor when no one else would challenge then-Mayor Frank Ivancie.  He won with 54% of the vote.

At the time, he was a barkeep at the Goose Hollow Inn.
SC

[TomTomTelekom 3,727]

Former Greece President Christos Sartzetakis dead at 92 years:

https://www.ekathimerini.com/society/1176800/former-resident-christos-sartzetakis-dead-at-93/

[Ulitzer95 12,576]

Updated the Cold War leaders list following the death of Christos Sartzetakis.

Just Constantine II left from Greece. Still a pretty "young" name. 82 in June, though admittedly I know nothing of his current health.
 

Spoiler

Western Bloc

Australia
Elizabeth II (b. 1926)
Paul Keating (b. 1944)

Belgium
Mark Eyskens (b. 1933)

Canada
Elizabeth II (b. 1926)
Joe Clark (b. 1939)
Brian Mulroney (b. 1939)

Denmark
Margrethe II (b. 1940)

France
Laurent Fabius (b. 1946)
Édith Cresson (b. 1934)

Greece
Constantine II (b. 1940)
Christos Sartzetakis (b. 1929)

Iceland
Vigdís Finnbogadóttir (b. 1930)
Porsteinn Palsson (b. 1947)
Davíd Oddsson (b. 1948)

Iran
Ali Khamenei (b. 1939)
Abolhassan Banisadr (b. 1933)
Mir-Hossein Mousavi (b. 1942)

Iraq
NONE

Italy
Arnaldo Forlani (b. 1925)
Ciriaco De Mita (b. 1928)

Luxembourg
Jacques Santer (b. 1937)

The Netherlands
Beatrix (b. 1938)
Dries van Agt (b. 1931)

New Zealand
Elizabeth II (b. 1926)
Geoffrey Palmer (b. 1942)
Jim Bolger (b. 1935)

Norway
Harald V (b. 1937)
Gro Harlem Brundtland (b. 1939)
Kåre Willoch (b. 1928)

Pakistan
Elizabeth II (b. 1926)
Nawaz Sharif (b. 1949)

Philippines
NONE

Portugal
António Ramalho Eanes (b. 1935)
Francisco Pinto Balsemão (b. 1937)
Aníbal Cavaco Silva (b. 1939)

Spain
Juan Carlos I (b. 1938)
Felipe González (b. 1942)

Thailand
Thanin Kraivichien (b. 1927)
Anand Panyarachun (b. 1932)

Turkey
NONE

United Kingdom
Elizabeth II (b. 1926)
John Major (b. 1943)

United States
Jimmy Carter (b. 1924)

West Germany
NONE

Eastern Bloc

Albania
Fatos Nano (b. 1952)
Ylli Bufi (b. 1948)
Vilson Ahmeti (b. 1951)

Bulgaria
Georgi Atanasov (b. 1933)
Philip Dimitrov (b. 1955)

Byelorussia
Nikolay Slyunkov (b. 1929)
Yefrem Sokolov (b. 1926)
Stanislav Shushkevich (b. 1934)

Czechoslovakia
Karel Urbánek (b. 1941)
Lubomír Štrougal (b. 1924)
Marián Čalfa (b. 1946)

East Germany
Egon Krenz (b. 1937)
Sabine Bergmann-Pohl (b. 1946)
Hans Modrow (b. 1928)
Lothar de Maizière (b. 1940)

Hungary
Mátyás Szurös (b. 1933)

Poland
Lech Wałesa (b. 1943)
Jan Krzysztof Bielecki (b. 1951)

Romania
NONE

Soviet Union
Mikhail Gorbachev (b. 1931)
Nikolai Ryzhkov (b. 1929)
Ivan Silayev (b. 1930)

Ukraine
Leonid Kravchuk (b. 1934)
Vitold Fokin (b. 1932)