Thoughts On The 2017 List

[Joey Russ 7,220]

Me think that even if the committee didn’t go for the likes of  Christie or Downie, the record still would’ve been broken...

[ebless 203]

My current verdict with eight weeks left of 2017.

 

Massive danger - Leah Bracknell, King Michael of Romania, Nobby Stiles, George Bush Sr, Valerie Harper

 

Will they won't they - Jill Gascoine, Kirk Douglas, Billy Graham, Denis Norden, Pierre Cardin, Hernan Wouk, Leslie Phillips, Javier Perez de Cueller, Bob Barker, Pope Benedict

 

Little Chance - Vera Lynn, Lord Carrington, Duke Of Edinburgh, Stan Lee, Olivia De Havilland, Bob Dole, Jimmy Carter, Robert Mugabe, Betty White, Doug Ellis, Honor Blackman, Ian St John, David Prowse, Hosni Mubarak, Desmond Tutu

 

Safe for 2018 - Queen Elizabeth II, Sandy Gall, Emperor Akihito, Gay Byrne

[Deadpool 166]

How many deaths left until 31 December? 1? 2? 0?

[Youwanticewiththat 611]

49 minutes ago, Deadpool said:

How many deaths left until 31 December? 1? 2? 0?

4

[msc 18,421]

51 minutes ago, Deadpool said:

How many deaths left until 31 December? 1? 2? 0?

 

6.8 million.

 

151, 600 a day, roughly, x 45 days till Hogmanay.

 

Well, you weren't specific.

[Deadpool 166]

1 hour ago, msc said:

 

6.8 million.

 

151, 600 a day, roughly, x 45 days till Hogmanay.

 

Well, you weren't specific.

 One of them it's yours? 

[Deadpool 166]

1 hour ago, Youwanticewiththat said:

4

Which ones? (Asking about the 36 names left on the list )

[Joey Russ 7,220]

9 minutes ago, Deadpool said:

 One of them it's yours? 

Hope not. Who would run the crowdsource deathlist for the next year then? 

[msc 18,421]

You!

 

Hope not, there's people on this planet I am looking forward to hopefully outliving. Not the cheeriest outlook, perhaps, but it is honest!

[ebless 203]

King Michael is fucked, still think Bracknell will go before the year is out, I have a feeling for Wouk and Stiles could literally go any day from now to at least this winter's end. So a final total of 20 deaths looks to be the target. 

[Sir Creep 7,070]

23 minutes ago, ebless said:

King Michael is fucked, still think Bracknell will go before the year is out, I have a feeling for Wouk and Stiles could literally go any day from now to at least this winter's end. So a final total of 20 deaths looks to be the target. 

That ^^^^ was post #195000 on the site.  Hopefully we will do better for #196000.
SC

[Joey Russ 7,220]

1 minute ago, Sir Creep said:

That ^^^^ was post #195000 on the site the main forum of this site.  Hopefully we will do better for #196000.
SC

FTFY

[Life Is Beautiful 716]

Well I was dead bored and I did some research, turns out December always brings out the biggest/oldest/most iconic Deathlist names.

 

Maybe it's the cold, but December rewarded Deathlist with some of its most famous names:

Gerald Ford and Pinochet in 2006, Mark Felt in 2008, Kim Jong-Il in 2011, Niemeyer in 2012, Peter O'Toole, Mandela and Deathlist icon Ronnie Biggs in 2013, Luise Rainier in 2014, Zsa Zsa Gabor in 2016...

 

So, I still think we're due a very, very big name next month.

[ebless 203]

28 minutes ago, Life Is Beautiful said:

Well I was dead bored and I did some research, turns out December always brings out the biggest/oldest/most iconic Deathlist names.

 

May it's the cold, but December rewarded Deathlist with some of its most famous names:

Gerald Ford and Pinochet in 2006, Mark Felt in 2008, Kim Jong-Il in 2011, Niemeyer in 2012, Peter O'Toole, Mandela and Deathlist icon Ronnie Biggs in 2013, Luise Rainier in 2014, Zsa Zsa Gabor in 2016...

 

So, I still think we're due a very, very big name next month.

That will be Kirk Douglas. 

[Deadpool 166]

I think there has to be (at least) another hit for the deathlist. I don't know how big but...

[Deadpool 166]

On 27/11/2017 at 21:01, Life Is Beautiful said:

Well I was dead bored and I did some research, turns out December always brings out the biggest/oldest/most iconic Deathlist names.

 

Maybe it's the cold, but December rewarded Deathlist with some of its most famous names:

Gerald Ford and Pinochet in 2006, Mark Felt in 2008, Kim Jong-Il in 2011, Niemeyer in 2012, Peter O'Toole, Mandela and Deathlist icon Ronnie Biggs in 2013, Luise Rainier in 2014, Zsa Zsa Gabor in 2016...

 

So, I still think we're due a very, very big name next month.

I was just doing some research as well and there have been two years in a row  (2002-2003) without any death in the last two months... it seems unlikely that will happen again... or not? And recently  just 2015 without a hit during December 

[Leon Brittan 293]

Got a feeling George Bush Seniors on his way out soon.

[Grim Up North 3,723]

So the death of King Michael finally drags the Committee's choice of people over the age of 95 up to the average of expected deaths - not particularly impressive particularly as a lot of them are over 95 so the average should actually be higher (but I cba to work it out year by year).

 

So 16 names on the Death List are 95 or older.

Average likelihood to die in a year when you are 95 is 0.233.

So picking any random sixteen 95 year olds you could expect 4 of them to die.

 

The 4 are King Michael, Peter Sallis, Jake LaMotta and David Rockefeller.

 

What this means is that if you are 95 or older you don't need to worry about being on the Death List as you are no more likely to die than any other 95 year old. Which suggests that the Committee simply pick on age at random rather than based on any medical evidence (which is probably true in the main with King Michael being an exception).

 

EDIT: Although 7 out of 17 in 2016 was a better success rate as was 6 out of 16 in 2015 so perhaps this is just a good year for being an old person on the Death List.

Edited December 5, 2017 by Grim Up North

[ebless 203]

My updated verdict with King Michael gone

 

Still in massive danger - Leah Bracknell, Nobby Stiles, George Bush Sr

 

Will they won't they - Kirk Douglas, Billy Graham, Duke of Edinburgh, Denis Norden, Herman Wouk, Leslie Phillips, Javier Perez De Cueller, Jill Gascoine, Bob Barker 

 

Little chance - Vera Lynn, Lord Carrington, Pierre Cardin, Stan Lee, Olivia De Haviland, Bob Dole, Robert Mugabe, Betty White, Doug Ellis, Honor Blackman, Ian St John, David Prowse, Pope Benedict, Hosni Mubarak, Desmond Tutu, Valerie Harper

 

Safe for 2018 - Jimmy Carter, Queen Elizabeth II, Sandy Gall, Emperor Akihito, Gay Byrne 

[Deadpool 166]

On 15/08/2017 at 12:19, Sean said:

So we need 7 to die to get the record so here is my assessment of the 14 most likely to die

1)Jerry Lewis (Heart problems dating back to 1960 as well as many gealth problems.Now has difficulty swallowing following an infection:Been very quiet these past few weeks)

2)Tony Booth (Advanced Alzheimers COPD and congestive heart failure and still smoking)

3)Gord Downie (Now 20months into a glioblastoma diagnosis which is above average.Been quiet again recently.

4)Nobby Stiles (End stage alzheimers dating back well over a decade.In a nursing home and seems close to death according to son.Also has prostate cancer and several strokes.

5)Leah Bracknell (11 months into stage 4 lung cancer and reliant on quack medicine for several months.Nearly died from a build up of fluid on heart last year.)

6)Jake LaMotta (Extremely elderly frail and in a nusing home now.Has had heart problems too)

7)King Michael (Two types of cancer frail but stable but at nearly 96 and a lot of time in hospital things can only get worse)

8)HermanWouk(Exceptionally old wheelchair bound and reliant on oxygen tank.)

9)Jill Gascoigne (Had Alzheimers and has been a nursing home for about 3.All reports seem bleak)

10)Liz Dawn (Had emphysema nearly 15 years is wheelchair bound has heart problems and is prone to pneumonia.Very quiet since heart surgery in June)

11)Valerie Harper (Has metastatic lung cancer in the meninges.Been dying for 4 and a half years but no recent update.)

12)Leslie Philips (Had a serious stroke 2 years ago.Wheelchair bound and nearly died from a seizure a while back.)

13)George H W Bush (Has a form of parkinsons and keeps getting a recurrent lung infection.)

14)Bruce Forsyth (Not been seen orphotographed since 2015 when he had anerysm surgery.At 89 such a slow recovery can't be a good sign)

 

Seems plausible half will go by December 31st.Even if not still a lot of over 90s on this list.Still achievable.

 

 

Ah! Almost forgot! 

7/14

Well done! 

[Sean 6,309]

On 26/10/2017 at 00:25, Joey Russ said:

Me think that even if the committee didn’t go for the likes of  Christie or Downie, the record still would’ve been broken...

Yep

[theoldlady 2,292]

The List for 2017 was great! Congratulations to the Committee! 

[Deathbysnoosnoo 28]

Nae done quite yet

[TomTomTelekom 3,727]

On ‎26‎.‎10‎.‎2017 at 01:25, Joey Russ said:

Me think that even if the committee didn’t go for the likes of  Christie or Downie, the record still would’ve been broken...

Well, instead of Christie or Downie  the committee could alternatively pick really famous people like Helmut Kohl or Chuck Berry, right?

I had neither downie, nor christie or bracknell on my list, no matter how death-cert they are, if these people are not representative enough on a worldwide perspective and I never heard of them outside this page, why should I include them on the list? but of course everyone has the free choice to make their own decision, the committee too.....

 

Wish all of you a happy and healthy Christmas

 

 

 

 

 

[Toast 16,112]

My rule of thumb is not so much whether I've heard of them, but would somebody I know have heard of them?  I might not be familiar with someone in a narrow field that is outside my knowledge and experience, but someone down the pub on a Friday night might well be.  Scientific types, for instance.  Or actors in a popular TV series that I don't watch.

 

I also think people with less-than-household names can qualify if the context is there.  For instance, Nobel Prize winners.

Or:

"Who's John Wetton?"

"He was in King Crimson.  And Asia."

"Oh, yeah,  I liked some of their stuff."