Derby Dead Pool 2018

[YoungWillz 21,050]

*chuckles* Surely the secret is to pick at least one cancer ridden young lady with no Wiki page.

 

You can have all the analyses you like, all the stats you want. I hope to live to see the day a winner wins without one of these dames.

 

Meantime I'll putter along with people I heard of and who will be missed outside of elites, cliques, family and friends. Because I will miss them...famous or infamous.

[gcreptile 10,972]

2 hours ago, Grim Up North said:

 

Hmmm but only the top 4 would currently be over 100 points without Drop 40 bonuses (so although I agree that research is better (and possibly easier now) you can't ignore the extra points that the Drop 40 bonuses deliver.

Also true - you could make an argument that 2016 was the best deadpooling year ever. Though I guess the difference is that Leah Bracknell and Marieke Vervoort didn't die. If they had, in their respective joker years, than we'd still see a big step up.

[RadGuy 1,614]

Well, I'm bored on this Saturday morning, so here's some Rain Man-style good ol' fashioned DDP analysis.

 

With about 2 and 1/2 months left in the year, I'd say it's very likely that the DDP winner will be one of the top 3: Thomas Jefferson Survives, Day in the Death, or Pity Da Foolz - barring a miraculous 2013 Spade-like march to the top from another team. These teams sit at 128, 126, and 124 points respectively, and have separated themselves from the rest of us by at least 7 points.

 

So here's a look at their surviving members and likeliness of dying by the end of December, imho.

 

1. Simon Ricketts (Pity Da Foolz) - Had some bad news in the summertime, looks to be on the clock. And of course, he'll die to piss off all those that dropped him this year.
2. Clive James (Day in the Death) - Looking very frail with breathing and sight issues. He's a fighter, but looking like his time will soon come.
3. Mike Willesee (Pity Da Foolz) - No official news, but very suspicious that he apparently didn't pay tribute to his friend who recently died. Could be nearing death, or in good shape. Big question mark imho.
4. Johnny Clegg (Thomas Jefferson Survives) - With the recent news of his cancer spreading, he seems to have all the makings of a Ray Price, Sharon Jones, Charles Bradley, what have you.
5. Nobby Stiles (Thomas Jefferson Survives, Pity Da Foolz) - Has had advanced dementia for a while, perhaps the cold weather will be too much to handle for him this autumn. But at this point it's quite reasonable to see him survive the year now.
6. Fernando Ricksen (Day in the Death) - People seem to be considering him good to go for 2019, but he was hospitalized this week. Tough one to call.
7. John Cocks (Day in the Death) - Living months past what his doctors told him, and apparently using Te Kiri Gold water: how did that work out for Colin Meads?
8. Anne Hamilton-Byrne (Pity Da Foolz) - Ancient, and she's been in "palliative care", but for years, so she's not especially likely to die. But could be one of those end-of-year plot twists.
9. Pete Frates (Pity Da Foolz) - Survived with ALS for what, 6 years now? Besides that big scare a year ago, he's doing well, it seems.
10. Leah Bracknell (Thomas Jefferson Survives, Day in the Death, Pity Da Foolz) - Only one left that's on all teams, none jokered her. So she makes no difference. Either way, seems to still be in relatively good form and beating the odds.
11. Devin Lima (Pity Da Foolz) - Pretty good news in February that was only recently unearthed by us poolers, but crickets since then. Decent bet he's doing okay, though.
12. Stuart Fraser (Day in the Death) - Still out and about. But lung cancer's a bastard so you never know.
13. Marieke Vervoort (Thomas Jefferson Survives - joker, Day in the Death - joker) - Looks to be putting her euthanasia on hold. Currently visiting Oregon as seen on her Facebook page. Seems cheery, and I really doubt that changes in the next 11 weeks.
14. Greg Gilbert (Thomas Jefferson Survives, Day in the Death) - Cheating death still. However he is looking for new treatments options, so not impossible that nothing works and he has a quick decline. But probably not until next year.
15. Linda Nolan (Day in the Death, Pity Da Foolz) - In fine shape still. Probably won't die next year, let alone this year,
16. Tiffany Youngs (Thomas Jefferson Survives) - In remission. Even if the cancer comes back, it won't kill her in 11 weeks.

 

So, if you ask me, I'd say the likely winner will be Pity Da Foolz. Only a Vervoort death would tip it in favor of the other two. Definitely too close to call, anyway.

[Joey Russ 7,228]

Stuart Fraser won’t be dying anytime soon afaik. I’ve discovered that one of his scans has showed that he is clear of lung cancer, so I think he’s probably safe for a few years at least. And Cocksy is one I don’t think will get a QO even if he does die this year. But overall a very solid analysis...

[drol 11,951]

I'm a bit suprised my team is not having hits. At least three survivors are on the very brink of death, and I don't know how Peter Lorimer and Denis Goldberg are doing. José José is a fraudster.

[Joey Russ 7,228]

3 minutes ago, drol said:

I'm a bit suprised my team is not having hits. At least three survivors are on the very brink of death, and I don't know how Peter Lorimer and Denis Goldberg are doing. José José is a fraudster.

Re Lorimer, I believe you have fallen for some Chinese whispers that isn’t true at all. Sorry to tell you that (though I still picked him in a few pools, so didn’t completely realize that till his appearance). Goldberg is a question mark, he’s on a nasal cannula, but he didn’t look too bad at a recent public appearance besides that...

[Death Impends 7,977]

Using the color-urgency motif I do on my spreadsheet, good Rad!

 

Still think it's tricky for me to win. I need Clegg to counter one PDF hit (I'd be one point behind if the hit is Lima though), Stiles to counter Clive James, or both to counter Ricksen. That or absolutely nothing to happen with the contending names for the rest of the year, but there's usually a December surprise... Ricketts is still very active on Twitter, but that means sod all for his chances of having another 2 1/2 months on this planet. Sam Simon and Kate Granger still tweeted within a week of their death. And AHB being the year's King Michael equivalent wouldn't surprise me.

[Joey Russ 7,228]

I was chatting with msc, and he told me that each of the top three teams have a fascinating story though. One is the best player of the decade who never won a title before, one is a young breakout star, and one is an unheralded team who most people wouldn’t have said they had a shot of winning until this year. 

Personally, I’m content with my overall performance and will be happy with wherever I place, as two years ago I never would’ve thought I even had a shot at the title. But here I am now, watching the last two and a half months to see which of the three of us will eventually win the title...

[YoungWillz 21,050]

Two and half months.

 

And they are already writing off the hundreds of other teams in the competition because they believe only 3 can win.

 

Lawdy.

[Going Underground 74]

On 13/10/2018 at 20:18, Joey Russ said:

I was chatting with msc, and he told me that each of the top three teams have a fascinating story though. One is the best player of the decade who never won a title before, one is a young breakout star, and one is an unheralded team who most people wouldn’t have said they had a shot of winning until this year. 

Personally, I’m content with my overall performance and will be happy with wherever I place, as two years ago I never would’ve thought I even had a shot at the title. But here I am now, watching the last two and a half months to see which of the three of us will eventually win the title...

 

On 11/10/2018 at 22:11, Deathray said:

 

Fuck off cunt.

 

[Dr_T 254]

Well no-one has ever accused me of having a fascinating story before.  If you want a fascinating story I'll tell you about my trip to Rotorua in 2004 (just make sure the kiddies are in bed first).

 

In truth, my team should have been called "Let's Not Re-Invent the Wheel" because mostly I looked through the top half a dozen teams from last year to see who was worth recycling and then added a few of my own.  Those few of my own are doing remarkably well for the most part-with only Falkholt and Goodwin having scored apart from the obvious John McCain. I would never have heard of the likes of Cryne, Nevin, Miller etc but for their previous involvement in the other's teams.  I guess there was some luck or skill involved in making the scoring selections, but no great originality. 

 

In terms of my chances of winning, I think it depends almost solely on Ricketts (assuming Vervoort survives).  Anne Hamilton-Byrne is obviously a show (may not QO though) as she could drop off any time with no surprise.  I think we would have heard more bad news about Lima should he be checking out.  Willesee is a wild card.  I had given up on him after seeing some positive news.  The was a recent report that he had to be air-lifted out from Torres Strait after a fall (August 8), but I thought that the fact he was prepared to go to Torres Strait was an indication that he was ok.  However, as others have pointed out, the lack of an appearance in the wake of Quentin Kenihan's death could be a sign that he has deteriorated. 

 

With 2.5 months left in the year it is hard to see a winner outside of the top 3 because of the number of shared picks.  Bucket of Blood is 4th, but 11 points behind the lead and while it is a mathematical possibility that they win it seems most unlikely.  Grim Up North in 5th/6th is 17 behind and has more or less conceded in this forum that they are very little hope of figuring in the finish.  If the win does come from outside the current top 3 it would be a win for the ages.

[Grim Up North 3,726]

7 hours ago, Dr_T said:

With 2.5 months left in the year it is hard to see a winner outside of the top 3 because of the number of shared picks.  If the win does come from outside the current top 3 it would be a win for the ages.

 

I think these comments overlook Pan Breed is highest ranked team with Leah Bracknell as a joker. If Leah goes (and whilst it looks unlikely now nobody would be surprised if she went downhill quickly) he will be only 7 points behind TJS which is much more doable.

 

7 hours ago, Dr_T said:

Grim Up North in 5th/6th is 17 behind and has more or less conceded in this forum that they are very little hope of figuring in the finish. 

 

Yes if Leah and/or Vervoort die I drop like a stone despite having them both in my team. 

 

Presuming they both live (and none of the people I don't have in my team but others do die) a Simon Ricketts death would lift me above Bucket but then it gets much harder.

 

Ricketts and Stiles would get me past D in the D but not PdF or TJS

 

Ricketts and Frates would get me past TJS and D in the D but not PdF (and same with Ricketts, Stiles and Frates).

 

Even if Steffan Lewis dies I'm still 3 points behind PdF.

 

My only other differentials with PdF are:-

 

Vervoort - but then I lose so much ground on TJS and DintheD that it really doesn't help;

 

and a whole bunch of people who are not going to die this year - Tiffany Youngs, Greg Gilbert, DJ Casper and either Gabe Grunewald or Ami Brown.

 

Looking at the other teams around me I'd settle for no-one else dying at all and keeping my 5th place!

 

[Joey Russ 7,228]

4 hours ago, Grim Up North said:

Yes if Leah and/or Vervoort die I drop like a stone despite having them both in my team. 

 

Presuming they both live (and none of the people I don't have in my team but others do die) a Simon Ricketts death would lift me above Bucket but then it gets much harder.

 

Ricketts and Stiles would get me past D in the D but not PdF or TJS

 

Ricketts and Frates would get me past TJS and D in the D but not PdF (and same with Ricketts, Stiles and Frates).

 

Even if Steffan Lewis dies I'm still 3 points behind PdF.

That’s assuming that everyone else on my team survives the rest of the year, which may or not happen at this point, particularly with Clive James and Fernando Ricksen. While them surviving the year wouldn’t shock me in the slightest, their demise equally wouldn’t shock me. Interesting times ahead...

[Grim Up North 3,726]

41 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

That’s assuming that everyone else on my team survives the rest of the year, which may or not happen at this point, particularly with Clive James and Fernando Ricksen. While them surviving the year wouldn’t shock me in the slightest, their demise equally wouldn’t shock me. Interesting times ahead...

 

5 hours ago, Grim Up North said:

(and none of the people I don't have in my team but others do die)

 

[Sir Creep 7,070]

When my conjoined twins die on their birthday Oct 28, you’ll be singing a different tune.  

[Dr_T 254]

@SC...If your conjoined twins simultaneously shot each other on their birthday things would really be looking up.

 

Would it be a murder suicide, a murder murder, or a suicide suicide?

[Spade_Cooley 9,530]

OK, so due to work nightmares I've not touched the DDP this week. Just done an under-the-carpet update, am I right that Cicely Berry is the only death we've had since Doug Ellis? Paul Allen, Pik Botha and Denzil Davies have all been added to the LOTM.

[RadGuy 1,614]

2 hours ago, Spade_Cooley said:

Just done an under-the-carpet update, am I right that Cicely Berry is the only death we've had since Doug Ellis?

Mary Midgley died back on October 10th, with obits coming a couple days later. Here's the Telegraph.

Hit for 2 teams.

[gcreptile 10,972]

Gemma Nuttall also LotM...

[Death Impends 7,977]

Vicente Almeida d'Eca, picked 2017, is another List of the Missed-er.

[888-333 12]

You know its a slow time when the last post here was a week ago

[gcreptile 10,972]

Szaboss is probably going to be player of the month with only 20 points from a single hit.

[Sir Creep 7,070]

Sir Creep's chances with Cancel My Appointments rides on the absolute certain deaths today of siamese (er....conjoined) twins Ronnie and Donnie Galyon.  It's their birthday today, (HAPPY 66th), so a double hit double party pooper.  C'mon fellas don't let me down!
SC
  

[Spade_Cooley 9,530]

In a world where nobody dies, an update.

[Sir Creep 7,070]

1 hour ago, Spade_Cooley said:

In a world where nobody dies, an update.

How am I to expose my 8-year old daughter to the fine art of deadpooling when a flippant 'fuck' is tossed in there willy-nilly?  
'Here, boo, read Spade's latest update.....WHOA!!!  ...... Ah dinnae ken what passes for proper language for me lassie, but nay shall she be subject to any more 'updates'.

SC