Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

[Windsor 2,235]

With the Democratic nomination presumed to be in the bag what are your early predictions on who will win the US election presuming:

 

1) neither of them die

2) the election isn’t cancelled

[Deathray 2,942]

Who gives a fuck? America shmerica

[TQR 14,457]

Should be Biden but could be Trump because lots of thick people.

[Joey Russ 7,263]

Genuinely I think it’s too early to call. There really can be an argument for either of them winning at this point. I’ll choose none of the above for now...

[Joey Russ 7,263]

Btw, if I had to choose between Biden and Trump it would be Biden, but I’m nowhere confident enough to even say he has more than a 50/50 shot at winning at this point. In fact, if the coronavirus crisis didn’t happen, Trump would be a massive favorite to win. 

[Windsor 2,235]

I’d like to think Biden will clinch it for two reasons.

 

1) moderate Republicans (if there are any left) now know what a Trump Presidency is. The moderates might also be just about able to vote for Biden. 

2) Biden can probably win the rust belt states that Clinton lost which helps greatly in the electoral college stakes.
 

The thing that gets me are the Bernie supporters who won’t vote Biden even though it leaves the door open for Trump. Also, the Green Party basically gifted the election to Trump last time round so considering what he’s done to the Paris accord you’d think that would be enough for them to think they might want to sit this one out...but they won’t. 

Agreed it’s a bit early but despite everything telling me Biden will win there is a feeling in the pit of my stomach that Trump has the ability to somehow come through. Probably with the Russians...

[stonecold 51]

Hopefully Coronavirus will beat Trump before the election

[Joey Russ 7,263]

3 minutes ago, Windsor said:

I’d like to think Biden will clinch it for two reasons.

 

1) moderate Republicans (if there are any left) now know what a Trump Presidency is. The moderates might also be just about able to vote for Biden. 

2) Biden can probably win the rust belt states that Clinton lost which helps greatly in the electoral college stakes.
 

The thing that gets me are the Bernie supporters who won’t vote Biden even though it leaves the door open for Trump. Also, the Green Party basically gifted the election to Trump last time round so considering what he’s done to the Paris accord you’d think that would be enough for them to think they might want to sit this one out...but they won’t. 

Agreed it’s a bit early but despite everything telling me Biden will win there is a feeling in the pit of my stomach that Trump has the ability to somehow come through. Probably with the Russians...

I absolutely despise the idea that voting for third party is a vote for Trump. People need to earn their votes, and that was really why Clinton lost. She didn’t do enough to earn the votes of those who voted for someone else or stayed home.

Also, the Republican Party in general is basically lock step with trump at this point. He’s consistently received around 90 - 95% of republican support, so very few Republicans (if any) would even consider voting for Biden. 
If Biden can actually convince voters that he cares about them and he doesn’t sound like the cognitive decline he usually does in public, then he could certainly win. Hell, I think the best strategy for him is to stay out of the public eye as much as possible. But there’s no guarantee that it’ll work, especially since Republicans know how to play dirty politics extremely well. 

[Windsor 2,235]

8 minutes ago, stonecold said:

Hopefully Coronavirus will beat Trump before the election

Half the fun of this election will be to see what he does if he loses? He needs to live if only for that reason! 

[Windsor 2,235]

1 minute ago, Joey Russ said:

I absolutely despise the idea that voting for third party is a vote for Trump. People need to earn their votes, and that was really why Clinton lost. She didn’t do enough to earn the votes of those who voted for someone else or stayed home.

Also, the Republican Party in general is basically lock step with trump at this point. He’s consistently received around 90 - 95% of republican support, so very few Republicans (if any) would even consider voting for Biden. 
If Biden can actually convince voters that he cares about them and he doesn’t sound like the cognitive decline he usually does in public, then he could certainly win. Hell, I think the best strategy for him is to stay out of the public eye as much as possible. But there’s no guarantee that it’ll work, especially since Republicans know how to play dirty politics extremely well. 

Under normal circumstances I agree with you on third party candidates. The point I am making is that in this election there is a candidate who both the Greens and the Bernie supporters think is worse than Hitler. Yes they don’t like Biden, but if there is a chance your personal idea of Hitler was going to get into office (again) surely you’d want to vote for the only other candidate who could stop him?

[DeathClock 379]

Who would ever vote for Joe Biden? He looks like Sloth from Goonies. He looks like he had a stroke that the media is not reporting. No, I’m not making fun of people that have dementia.

[Windsor 2,235]

1 minute ago, DeathClock said:

Who would ever vote for Joe Biden? He looks like Sloth from Goonies. He looks like he had a stroke that the media is not reporting. No, I’m not making fun of people that have dementia.

Just wait til you see the other guy! 

[CaptainChorizo 1,991]

Biden and Trump are old and not in the best of health,I wouldn't be surprised if one or both of them don't even make it to Nov.   The 2020 Presidental election winner could end up being someone who didn't even run in the primary

[Sean 6,365]

Trump

[Torva Messor 281]

2 hours ago, CaptainChorizo said:

The 2020 Presidential election winner could end up being someone who didn't even run in the primary

I divine with a pendulum, and four out of four times I asked about Biden winning the US Presidency the pendulum stopped or dropped out of my hand, as opposed to a definitive no or yes answer. I don't think he'll be inaugurated in January, but I hope I'm wrong.

(No, I don't divine for Deathlist pool hits, but I do ask the pendulum if I'll get a hit in the next seven days. It has always given me a true answer.)

[paddyfool 379]

Guessing at Biden based on what I've seen of the polling. But as Joey says, it's too early to say which of these (possibly demented) old men will win.

[The Great Cornholio 902]

Speaking as a former editor, you guys have to understand that Trump has a very very loyal fanbase. 93% of republicans stand behind Trump. Even when Trump's reign is over, Trumpism or whatever you wanna call it will live on. Despite this, a fair amount of libertarians voted for Trump as he is less authoritarian than Hillary (despite being authoritarian nonetheless). I reckon Trump will have lost the libertarian vote.

 

During 2016 there was a lot of speculation that Trump will essentially kill everyone and will be worse that G.W.B. Right now people know what Trump is all about and what they will get with him in charge - be that a good thing or a bad thing.

 

When it comes to Joe Biden, the best argument for him is that fact that he is simply the 'Not Trump' option. Personally I don't think thatll be enough for him to win. Like Hillary, Joe Biden needs to offer a promise of significant change for him to win. As many know, Biden has a very creepy habit of sniffing young children and making contact with them inappropriately. Trump has not much more than mere accusations - although he is questionably grabby with his daughter Ivanka. From a social and moral standpoint, both men aren't exactly people you want hanging around your daughters. 

 

When we look back at the 2018 election, Trump lost the house but made gains in the Senate. Trump was the third president in 100 years to do this, which leaves me to believe that he will be re-elected no problem.

[Spade_Cooley 9,631]

Biden more comfortably than you'd think. I think people are forgetting how much the average American hated (and still hates) Hillary Clinton, which was what did the Dems in last time. If Trump had ran unopposed he would have lost.

[Spade_Cooley 9,631]

Having said that, two near-octogenarians (and a third one having just been inched out) fighting for control of a country is not a good look. Looks like the final days of a crumbling Eastern Bloc state.

[msc 18,536]

" When we look back at the 2018 election, Trump lost the house but made gains in the Senate. Trump was the third president in 100 years to do this, which leaves me to believe that he will be re-elected no problem."

 

Greatest hot take since "Tories are doing well in the English shires, bad news for Corbyn?" right there.

[gcreptile 11,074]

Biden is going to win, at least because of two fundamental reasons: He's more liked than Clinton (sexism, but also her just being her) and Trump hasn't done anything to expand his base - even though he basically just won on technicalities.

There's no state where Trump is more popular now than he was 4 years ago. If he's going to win votes in comparison to 2016, it has to be state demographics or other fundamentals moving in his favor, for example, Ohio and Iowa becoming redder, voter suppression in Wisconsin and Florida or something like that.

In short, Trump is not going to win any state he lost 4 years ago.

 

But the Democrats are going to move hard in Arizona and North Carolina. Michigan has a well-liked democratic governor and is hardly regarded as a swing state this time (polling consensus is "lean Dem"). And that's basically it.

From the 2016 map, I'd already give Arizona and Michigan to Biden, who then just needs to win one of the other battleground states:

Pennsylvania (good possibility), Wisconsin (50:50 - or better, having just witnessed the election there), North Carolina (where the Dems are going to win the Senate and gubernatorial race), Florida (De Santis is turning into a catastrophe), Ohio, or Georgia. The latter being less than 50% chances. And then there are the dream states Iowa and Texas.

 

Edit: Funnily, if Biden wins all of the above bar Texas, but Nebraska's 2nd (?) and all of Maine, he'll get the 375 electoral votes Obama got in 2008.

[The Great Cornholio 902]

8 hours ago, gcreptile said:

Biden is going to win, at least because of two fundamental reasons: He's more liked than Clinton (sexism, but also her just being her) and Trump hasn't done anything to expand his base - even though he basically just won on technicalities.

There's no state where Trump is more popular now than he was 4 years ago. If he's going to win votes in comparison to 2016, it has to be state demographics or other fundamentals moving in his favor, for example, Ohio and Iowa becoming redder, voter suppression in Wisconsin and Florida or something like that.

In short, Trump is not going to win any state he lost 4 years ago.

 

But the Democrats are going to move hard in Arizona and North Carolina. Michigan has a well-liked democratic governor and is hardly regarded as a swing state this time (polling consensus is "lean Dem"). And that's basically it.

From the 2016 map, I'd already give Arizona and Michigan to Biden, who then just needs to win one of the other battleground states:

Pennsylvania (good possibility), Wisconsin (50:50 - or better, having just witnessed the election there), North Carolina (where the Dems are going to win the Senate and gubernatorial race), Florida (De Santis is turning into a catastrophe), Ohio, or Georgia. The latter being less than 50% chances. And then there are the dream states Iowa and Texas.

 

Edit: Funnily, if Biden wins all of the above bar Texas, but Nebraska's 2nd (?) and all of Maine, he'll get the 375 electoral votes Obama got in 2008.

This seems to me this is a prediction made by the same people that said Trump doesn't have a chance in hell. In 2016, MSNBC predicted a huge landslide for Hillary - look how that turned out.

 

Plus I think I'd actually prefer that bitch Hillary over the alleged paedophile we have as the presumptive DNC nominee.

Edited April 15, 2020 by Paul Bearer
Tweeked slightly

[The Great Cornholio 902]

3 hours ago, msc said:

" When we look back at the 2018 election, Trump lost the house but made gains in the Senate. Trump was the third president in 100 years to do this, which leaves me to believe that he will be re-elected no problem."

 

Greatest hot take since "Tories are doing well in the English shires, bad news for Corbyn?" right there.

Except the Tories gave Labour the worst beating since 1935 last year...

 

EDIT: I didn't get the reference. I don't read the Guardian, unlike some of the white knights here who cant debate like adults (namely the people who disliked this post like Quim Rapist and Tosst).

[msc 18,536]

15 minutes ago, Kenny McCormick said:

Except the Tories gave Labour the worst beating since 1935 last year...

 

I presumed that point was succinct enough for anyone of intelligence to get, but here we are.

 

You don't base predictions on how folk do on their STRONGEST area of the fucking map. Of course Corbyn lost because he's Corbyn, but it wasn't lost in the seats won by the Tories since the Black Plague.It was in the competitive bits of the map and the seats they lost. And even if Trump does win, which he could easily do, it wont be on the 2018 map of super red seats the Republicans win 99 times out of 100. It'll be in the competitive bits not in play that particular time round.

 

No wonder you are a former editor if this is your understanding of politics.

[Death Impends 8,043]

The Senate gains in 2018 moreso highlighted just how dreadful a map it was for the Dems than any Trump strengths. 3 of the Dems who lost were in deep red states (and lucked out in 2012 to begin with by running against joke candidates in a less polarized era) and the fourth had the good sense to sleepwalk against an incumbent governor in a state that's always notoriously close.

 

Under Hillary, or even a more competent Republican, you'd have seen flips in West Virginia, Ohio, Montana, and possibly the Rust Belt. A net loss of two is frankly brilliant for the Dems considering that map.