Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

[runebomme 377]

"The election will be called tonight"

or another groundhog day

[RoverAndOut 4,755]

49 minutes ago, runebomme said:

"The election will be called tonight"

or another groundhog day

 

Yeah, realised after posting that might be a bit premature, but not really. Nevada is virtually there already, so Biden would need one more state. Pennsylvania is hoping to have a clear picture by the end of the night, which would put him over the top. There's a reason Trump came out tonight to cry foul, he knows defeat is going to be declared soon. Still expect him to urge people to take to the streets. Waiting to see Republicans stand up to him and tell him to accept defeat. But also kinda looking forward to the Republican Supreme Court throwing his case out, including the 3 justices he put there.

[ajlposh 561]

[MrWonderful 483]

Biden has closed to within about 22K in PA.  Just a matter of time.  As soon as he takes the lead there, I'd imagine the race gets called.  

[Joey Russ 7,265]

Meanwhile, Martha McSally has done the job of losing two senate seats in a row. Great job McSally. 

 

[ThereWillBeDeaths7 754]

1 hour ago, Joey Russ said:

Meanwhile, Martha McSally has done the job of losing two senate seats in a row. Great job McSally. 

 

 

[TQR 14,462]

And the inevitable: Biden has now overtaken Trump in Georgia.

 

Expect the same to happen in Pennsylvania too.

 

As an aside, I fucking hate this election. At least in the UK we’re told whether we’re fucked or not within a few hours.

[TQR 14,462]

Still, hats off to CNN, after 3 days their minds are still fully on the job:

 

 

[En Passant 3,755]

Mark Steel in the Indy on the prospect of Biden getting over the line...

 

"It’s a cause of celebration in the same way that if your dog won the “Best Breed” award at Crufts, when the only other entrant was a chicken. But even then, at one point during the counting, it looked as if the chicken would win."

 

Bwhahahaha 

 

 

Oh and

"The easiest way to explain this would be to describe Mr Trump’s supporters as idiots and racists. One poll suggested 91 per cent of Biden voters thought racial inequality was the most important issue, against only 8 per cent of Trump voters. And that 8 per cent probably thought it was important because there’s not enough of it."

 

Always did like Mark Steel, was never on the tv as much as he deserved.

 

 

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/election-results-biden-trump-supreme-court-votes-count-b1616557.html?fbclid=IwAR0fKW3rDCEkgmOINYwxDSexGZ7Fkk169-OCbr9nYYaWQgfI2Uy5yr2sGV4

 

[TomTomTelekom 3,731]

Last time the world heard someone call for a “total war” was Joseph Goebbels in 1943. Trump and his team apparently have a huge history education deficit. He's like a villain in a videogame spawning evil minions. On another note, 2020 truly has been a ride. It has had more plot twists than an M. Night Shyamalan movie.

[Toast 16,234]

Can't someone just get him sectioned?  He's clearly insane.

[Toast 16,234]

I have a question.

Why are some news agencies "calling" or "projecting" results before the counts are finished?

For instance, the Guardian is following AP and counting Arizona as a Biden win, while the BBC and CBS follow Reuters and do not.

Why don't they all wait till all the votes have been counted?

[YoungWillz 21,213]

So, Pennsylvania and Georgia might give Biden the win.

 

PAGA beats MAGA! 

[Death Impends 8,043]

America's theme is now "Georgia on My Mind".

 

Trump's is "They're Coming to Take Me Away, Ha-Haaa!".

[TQR 14,462]

I’m going to assume Trump will refuse to attend his successor’s post-election inauguration, the first since Johnson and Grant over 150 years ago so Google tells me.

[RoverAndOut 4,755]

36 minutes ago, Toast said:

I have a question.

Why are some news agencies "calling" or "projecting" results before the counts are finished?

For instance, the Guardian is following AP and counting Arizona as a Biden win, while the BBC and CBS follow Reuters and do not.

Why don't they all wait till all the votes have been counted?

 

It comes down to where the outstanding votes are. So obviously lots of states are called quickly because it's clear that there are no surprises in the voting patterns and they're reliably Republican or Democrat. In states that are too close to call, they wait for evidence of a clear winner. Michigan got called for Biden because he was pulling away from Trump with yet more mail-in votes to be counted. Lots of people thinking Nevada should be called for Biden because he's maintained his 10,000 or so lead and the remaining votes are from the most heavily Democratic area of the state - it's nigh on impossible to imagine Trump will win the remaining votes by the margin required for victory.

 

Arizona is an interesting one, Fox called it on election night when Biden had a big lead (around 47,000), but the other networks have so far still refused to and with good reason. It's traditionally a Republican state, there's still around 10% of the vote outstanding and Trump has been narrowing the lead throughout the past 24 hours. If the next vote count in Arizona expanded Biden's lead significantly though, then it would become increasingly unlikely that Trump could catch up. The other odd thing with Arizona is mail-in voting is quite common there and a lot more Republicans do it than anywhere else, so there's not the same guaranteed expectation that the remaining mail-in vote will go Biden's way.

 

Georgia won't be called for a while. It's just too close, there's less than 1,000 votes in it, Biden's leading, it's a traditionally Republican state, so they'll have to wait for every single vote to come in. Pennsylvania on the other hand is likely to be callable once Biden gets in front, because the mail-in vote is so heavily Democratic that he's only going to pull away from Trump and it won't remain competitive.

 

Why don't they wait for every vote to be counted? I guess you're meaning like UK elections with the returning officer, etc. Think of it less like an individual constituency and more like the UK Parliament. We don't need all the seats in to declare who's won because you can see a clear trend and you know who's likely to win the remaining seats based on what's gone before. The full count takes ages in the USA, with absentee ballots, provisional ballots (ones where they need to make sure people haven't both voted by mail and then in person), overseas votes (particularly military personnel) - they're not fully ratified until the beginning of December I think. But usually it's clear who's won - there's always the odd close state but this is a weird year with the amount of mail-in ballots due to corona. But if I were you, I'd ignore Arizona for now, until the other networks call it.

[Toast 16,234]

I have been thinking of it like the UK Parliament, with the states as constituencies.

But I don't get why some sources report a state as a win when it's still only an assumption.   

Obviously if a candidate is leading by more votes than remain to be counted, they've won, but this doesn't seem to be the case.

[Joey Russ 7,265]

[TQR 14,462]

Donald Trump has now surpassed Barack Obama’s record of popular votes (69.4m) by about 200k so far. Biden’s now 4m ahead.

[Grim Up North 3,771]

5 minutes ago, The Quim Reaper said:

Donald Trump has now surpassed Barack Obama’s record of popular votes (69.4m) by about 200k so far. Biden’s now 4m ahead.

 

I think in the middle of all this Trump slagging off (which is a whole load of fun) there is one major question that needs answered.

 

Huge numbers of Americans voted for him (69.4m and counting - thanks Quim ). Wyoming voted 70% for Trump and many other states are well into the 60s.

 

It seems insane but Trump is obviously offering something that nearly 50% of Americans want - until their voices are heard and their concerns are addressed to some extent then the problems in US will not be resolved simply by the disappearance of their current ringleader. 

[CoffinLodger 1,248]

1 hour ago, The Quim Reaper said:

I’m going to assume Trump will refuse to attend his successor’s post-election inauguration, the first since Johnson and Grant over 150 years ago so Google tells me.

It will be a socially distanced inauguration.Joe Biden will be in Washington DC. Donald Trump will be at Mara Lago...

[Genfærd 452]

Trump must be in the meltdown of his lifetime. Joe flipped Georgia and Pennsylvania - crazy.

[TQR 14,462]

50 minutes ago, Grim Up North said:

It seems insane but Trump is obviously offering something that nearly 50% of Americans want - until their voices are heard and their concerns are addressed to some extent then the problems in US will not be resolved simply by the disappearance of their current ringleader. 

Which is a very, very sorry indictment of the electorate indeed in my view, this vast amount of people either accepting or actively wanting white supremacy, poisonous and oppressive conservatism and deeply unpleasant serial liars to paint a picture for them. The first time, not so much, but for him to get 6m more votes this time, with his proven record, is horrifying.

 

Everywhere’s going to be divided, of course it is, but as it’s been said before, even though Biden has won, the result is not a good sort of eye-opener.

[MrWonderful 483]

Biden just took the lead in PA.  

[Joey Russ 7,265]

Pennsylvania has been called by one organization, I imagine others will follow soon: