Guess the date of the next UK General Election Sweepstake!

[The Old Crem 3,608]

31st October 2024. Halloween election.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

34 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

31st October 2024. Halloween election.

 

Already chosen.

[The Old Crem 3,608]

Just now, RoverAndOut said:

 

Already chosen.

19th December 2024 then.

[ladyfiona 2,592]

12th September 2024.

[TQR 14,402]

Let's get a list going:

 

2 May 24: RoverAndOut

9 May 24: Dying Probably

16 May 24: BuffaloPhil

23 May 24: Paul Bearer

6 Jun 24: Redrumours

13 Jun 24: DCI Frank Burnside

4 Jul 24: Sir Creep

5 Sep 24: Bentrovato

12 Sep 24: ladyfiona

10 Oct 24: Bibliogryphon

17 Oct 24: Sly Ronnie

24 Oct 24: Diego

31 Oct 24: msc

7 Nov 24: TQR

14 Nov 24: Great Uncle Bulgaria

21 Nov 24: lilham

28 Nov 24: Root Inspector

12 Dec 24: Clorox Bleachman

19 Dec 24: The Old Crem

28 Jan 25: Toast

[lilham 757]

November 21st 2024

[BuffaloPhil 929]

16th May 2024

[Great Uncle Bulgaria 1,290]

14/11/24

[Redrumours 861]

6th June 2024.

[dodrade 94]

Are we allowed to pick a date already chosen by someone else?

 

October 24th 2024 looks likeliest as the last Thursday before the clocks go back. The economy might have picked up slightly by then but I doubt it will make much difference.

[Paul Bearer 6,102]

6 hours ago, dodrade said:

Are we allowed to pick a date already chosen by someone else?

Personally I don’t have a problem with that.  

[Clorox Bleachman 2,441]

11 hours ago, dodrade said:

Are we allowed to pick a date already chosen by someone else?

 

October 24th 2024 looks likeliest as the last Thursday before the clocks go back. The economy might have picked up slightly by then but I doubt it will make much difference.

You're probably right, but I'd say it defeats the purpose of a sweepstake if there can be multiple winners. All the other sweepstakes we have don't allow people to choose the same date.

[Bibliogryphon 9,588]

1 hour ago, Clorox Bleachman said:

You're probably right, but I'd say it defeats the purpose of a sweepstake if there can be multiple winners. All the other sweepstakes we have don't allow people to choose the same date.

 

If you did a poll of potential dates that would be different

[Root Inspector 184]

28th November

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

13th June 2024 

[Sir Creep 7,070]

Maybe the Scots can share an Independence Day with us Yanks: 4 July 2024

[dodrade 94]

2nd May (already taken I know) looking more likely after last night's by-elections. If the Tories accept the game is up then holding them on the same day as local elections means the higher turnout might at least save some councillors and gives them all summer for the next leadership contest. It probably also brings the election after next a little closer.

[Bibliogryphon 9,588]

24 minutes ago, dodrade said:

2nd May (already taken I know) looking more likely after last night's by-elections. If the Tories accept the game is up then holding them on the same day as local elections means the higher turnout might at least save some councillors and gives them all summer for the next leadership contest. It probably also brings the election after next a little closer.

 

I think we are now heading for the latest possible date. The Tories probably can't see a way forward to improve the polls (and keep the party together) so their only hope is hold off as long as possible and hope that Labour manage to cock it up big style. Fifteen more months of the shit show folks

[The Old Crem 3,608]

3 hours ago, dodrade said:

2nd May (already taken I know) looking more likely after last night's by-elections. If the Tories accept the game is up then holding them on the same day as local elections means the higher turnout might at least save some councillors and gives them all summer for the next leadership contest. It probably also brings the election after next a little closer.

Equally the turnout of some demographics that Leah labour but don’t bother normally with local elections could lose some councillors in some places. Sadiq Khan would have a greater chance of remaining Mayor of London vs losing to Susan Hall if the general election was the same day 

[Toast 16,150]

I've thought for some time that there won't be a general election.  These cunts will work out a way to stop us having one.

[BuffaloPhil 929]

4 minutes ago, Toast said:

I've thought for some time that there won't be a general election.  These cunts will work out a way to stop us having one.

That is the scary scenario that I'm trying very hard to ignore.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

21 minutes ago, Toast said:

I've thought for some time that there won't be a general election.  These cunts will work out a way to stop us having one.

 

Practically impossible (I think?). I understand the concern, but I don't see how they could pull it off. We announced an election in 1945 before VJ Day. We didn't need an election during Covid due to the December 2019 election, but I can't foresee any world event that would cause a general election to be suspended, and the outrage would grow exponentially. As and when a vote was held, it would be carnage.

 

I'm not quite old enough to remember the '97 landslide (beyond "Things Can Only Get Better" - my first clear memory of a news event is Princess Diana, but I probably remember a new Prime Minister coming in a few months earlier). Can someone who lived through it confirm if it felt as doomed as it does now? And how was it for the last few months? The 92 surprise was held in April, Major held out until the last possible moment, May 97. Was the clamour for an election deafening? Or was there less anger around generally at the end of an 18-year vaguely competent Tory government running out of steam, compared to the current shower of charlatans and career opportunists?

 

I suppose one thing that's clearly different is that the May 97 election (and the 2010 one for that matter) coincided with the local elections. After May next year (and another presumed Tory drubbing, plus any number of by-election defeats in the same period) every single week, Sunak will be asked about a general election. And he can no longer argue nobody wants one - we'll be due one. The roars will get louder and louder and the picture should get uglier and uglier for the Tories. Even if the economy picks up, people have had enough.

[Sly Ronnie 886]

1 hour ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

Practically impossible (I think?). I understand the concern, but I don't see how they could pull it off. We announced an election in 1945 before VJ Day. We didn't need an election during Covid due to the December 2019 election, but I can't foresee any world event that would cause a general election to be suspended, and the outrage would grow exponentially. As and when a vote was held, it would be carnage.

 

I'm not quite old enough to remember the '97 landslide (beyond "Things Can Only Get Better" - my first clear memory of a news event is Princess Diana, but I probably remember a new Prime Minister coming in a few months earlier). Can someone who lived through it confirm if it felt as doomed as it does now? And how was it for the last few months? The 92 surprise was held in April, Major held out until the last possible moment, May 97. Was the clamour for an election deafening? Or was there less anger around generally at the end of an 18-year vaguely competent Tory government running out of steam, compared to the current shower of charlatans and career opportunists?

 

I suppose one thing that's clearly different is that the May 97 election (and the 2010 one for that matter) coincided with the local elections. After May next year (and another presumed Tory drubbing, plus any number of by-election defeats in the same period) every single week, Sunak will be asked about a general election. And he can no longer argue nobody wants one - we'll be due one. The roars will get louder and louder and the picture should get uglier and uglier for the Tories. Even if the economy picks up, people have had enough.

 

Yes and no.

The broad assumption was that Labour were going to win and win pretty big but there was always that feeling that somehow, the Tories were going to swing it round, or at least make it closer, almost up until election day itself.

I think the big difference is with Labour, or rather New Labour. I was no Blairite but there was a sense of the left looking the other way as the New Labour project took hold. Yet there was enough there in the opposition to suggest a brighter alternative. They had John Prescott and Robin Cook and a few others who at least has a touch of the old Labour about them, whereas today's party seems a bit meh and largely anonymous.

Blair and Brown went at great lengths to convince the electorate that this was a different party than in, say 1983.

Hindsight is wonderful thing and looking back, it was obvious that Labour were going to rout the Tories, which they did. Although not even the most optimistic Labour supporter or pessimistic Tory thought that the former would get a majority of 179 and the latter only 165 seats. That was just barmy!

 

The thing to bear in mind is that the electoral landscape was very different back in '97. The Liberal Democrats for example won 47 seats, which you cannot see happening. Labour dominated Scotland and Wales (Tories didn't get a single set there) and at on election day itself the notional majority for the Tories was 43, compared to about 100 with the boundary changes for the next election. So Labour are coming from a fair bit back. Rather like the Tories in 2010. They started from 198 and fell short of a majority despite all what happened to the Labour government leading to Polling Day.

 

So I'd be a tad more cautious - it may end up more like 1964 than 1997.

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

Would I be right in thinking if they did push it out to Jan 2025 He'd have to go to the Palace before Christmas presumably unless the offical campaign was able be as short as 3 weeks. Election can't be held any later than Jan 28th 2025 which is a Tues which would be exteremly unlikely so your talking the 23rd or maybe the Friday or Sat as the latest the election could be 

[Bibliogryphon 9,588]

4 hours ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

Practically impossible (I think?). I understand the concern, but I don't see how they could pull it off. We announced an election in 1945 before VJ Day. We didn't need an election during Covid due to the December 2019 election, but I can't foresee any world event that would cause a general election to be suspended, and the outrage would grow exponentially. As and when a vote was held, it would be carnage.

 

I'm not quite old enough to remember the '97 landslide (beyond "Things Can Only Get Better" - my first clear memory of a news event is Princess Diana, but I probably remember a new Prime Minister coming in a few months earlier). Can someone who lived through it confirm if it felt as doomed as it does now? And how was it for the last few months? The 92 surprise was held in April, Major held out until the last possible moment, May 97. Was the clamour for an election deafening? Or was there less anger around generally at the end of an 18-year vaguely competent Tory government running out of steam, compared to the current shower of charlatans and career opportunists?

 

I suppose one thing that's clearly different is that the May 97 election (and the 2010 one for that matter) coincided with the local elections. After May next year (and another presumed Tory drubbing, plus any number of by-election defeats in the same period) every single week, Sunak will be asked about a general election. And he can no longer argue nobody wants one - we'll be due one. The roars will get louder and louder and the picture should get uglier and uglier for the Tories. Even if the economy picks up, people have had enough.

 

I think that in 97 there was actually quite a bit of excitement about Blair/Brown.  It looked different. 

 

1992 was the first GE I could vote in (I missed 92 by a matter of months). The day after election day I was stunned and depressed.  I worked for British Coal at the time and one of my colleagues said during our redundancy outplacement training in answer to the question "When did you know you were going to be made redundant?" - When the Tories won the last election.