The Ukraine Crisis

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

Ok, so back in the real world, let's look at this logically. There's a lot of people saying Putin's lost his head, that the West couldn't imagine this outcome and nobody expected him to launch an all out invasion, and I confess that I also thought the idea was remote and it would be a huge step for him to even attempt to expand the borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics to include all of the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk and not just the land currently held by the rebels.

 

But if we think  about this, it was somewhat inevitable that we would reach this point. Vladimir Putin is a former KGB agent. He has always pushed back on criticism of the Soviet Union and played up Russian Nationalism. He has won countless elections through vote irregularities and has circumvented the Russian Constitution which limited him to two terms by switching places with his Prime Minister for a term and then reassuming the Presidency. He has since ensured such restrictions do not apply to him and he can run again for a third and fourth term before needing a further rubber stamping by the state controlled Duma. Opposition at home is ruthlessly controlled and anyone who shows signs of building any sort of movement in opposition to Putin is swiftly dealt with, as we've seen with a succession of Putin critics and leaders of opposition parties. National borders are no protection from his wrath, as seen with Litvinenko and the Salisbury Nerve Gas attack.

 

He is terrified about the democratisation of countries on his borders, has seen how the Baltic States and Poland have become part of the EU and is determined that no further democratisation (and therefore westernisation) will occur in the Russian sphere of influence. Ukraine has been a concern since the Orange Revolution in 2004 which split the country down the middle between pro-Ukraine and pro-Russian movements. Viktor Yanukovych, the Russian-backed candidate was viewed to have won the run-off election fraudulently and a re-run was ordered, which he lost. He then became Prime Minister and caused trouble for 6 years before being elected in an election deemed free and fair by international observers. His refusal to commit to closer links with the EU and the corruption of his government saw further protests and his removal from power in 2014, when he escaped to Russia and also mobilised pro-Russian sentiment in Eastern and Southern Ukraine, which Putin supported. He was allowed to send Russian troops to enter and, eventually, formally annex the Crimea without significant western opposition, and has supported the rebel movements in Donetsk and Luhansk.

 

All the while, the west has continued to do business with Putin, integrated its energy network to have more and more reliance on Russian oil and gas, welcomed Russian oligarchs' money into the City of London and elsewhere and rewarded his actions with the Winter Olympics in 2014, the World Cup in 2018 and a Russian Grand Prix since 2014. So why now? There are certainly a lot of geopolitical considerations at work here. He will be looking at the US's retreat from the world stage and the chaos in its withdrawal from Afghanistan, and is undoubtedly feeling more secure with President Biden's predictable political decisions than the chaos of Trump's decision making. He knows Johnson is a clown and fighting for his future. Merkel has just left the political stage and the leaders of the EU have recently changed. China's relationship with the west is rapidly deteriorating, giving Putin an Asian axis to work with to provide mutual strength in the face of western pressure. I suspect the catalyst for his focus on his western borders came with the Belarus protests in 2020, which threatened to remove Lukashenko, the puppet leader of the country who has ruled with an iron fist, and the support of Moscow, since not long after the end of the Cold War. The fact that both Belarus and Ukraine have shown signs of increasing democratic will and a tilt from Russia to the West is unacceptable to him. Lukashenko has been shored up with brutal suppression of protesters and he has ramped up the rhetoric on Ukraine. He has piled in troops, listened to all the warnings and the visitors from abroad and then done what it appears was his plan all along: to invade Ukraine under whatever pretences he likes, remove the government, reimpose it as a satellite state of the "Russian Federation and call it peacekeeping. The ramifications of this will be wide-ranging, but for all the talk, I'm not sure what else the west can do. Sanctions will seemingly either make little impact or take a while for the effects to be felt. Boots on the ground are not an option and the idea of Russia and NATO in open conflict in Europe is a frightening step. Perhaps he is feeling time is short, perhaps he has designs on the Baltic states and Poland, but I think he simply sees Ukraine as a battle he can win and a warning to the West that he is not messing around and Russia is to be respected as a global power once more. It's a sorry situation all round, and absolutely tragic for the people of Ukraine.

[gcreptile 10,978]

47 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

So why now? 

Yes, this is what I wonder as well, though maybe this is just another step in a general "restore the Russian Empire" plan, no trigger, just a date like any other. I mean, I'd say Putin did reasonably well? Oligarch money is safe in London, where the city is rather dependent on it, the EU was weakened through Brexit, Nord Stream 2 was almost done, why now? Does he think that this was the best possible time to strike? A kind of "peak Russian gas dependency" before renewable energy makes the russian economy obsolete? The attempted Lukashenko removal might be one factor, but considering Lukashenko was only saved because of Putin's intervention, Belarus had already become an official part of Russia.

I wonder if Trump's failed re-election might have been another trigger. That and the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, which means that US attention was returning to Russia once more. And then maybe Putin's 70th birthday this year? He's afraid of losing his "Russian bear" image which is so important for his "fans" across the world?

 

[gcreptile 10,978]

By the way, Russia is now trying to capture the Czernobyl nuclear power plant. I mean, a radioactive cloud is just what we're missing right now... a nuclear war without nuclear bombs...

[The Old Crem 3,606]

I think we going to see the UK turn on Germany and it’s allies for refusing support Russia being expelled from the Swift system because of the fact Germany would have a massive energy shortage if that happened. 

[ladyfiona 2,589]

4 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

By the way, Russia is now trying to capture the Czernobyl nuclear power plant. I mean, a radioactive cloud is just what we're missing right now... a nuclear war without nuclear bombs...

 

Good luck to anyone trying to get inside it when you can't visit the Elephant's foot for more than 20 minutes without possibly dying and that's when you are all suited up.

 

Maybe they want to throw the old fireman's uniforms at people from which are still at the hospital in Pripyat. They are the second most radioative thing there.

 

Then there is the rath of the Babushka's who still live in the village who never left/returned to exclusion zone. They will be nice to you as long as you are not invading. Bald and Bankrupt goes there lots.

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,219]

The 'why now' question can be answered quite simply. Joe Biden.

I suspect that Putin had no intention of taking the whole of the Ukraine but, has been emboldened by the fact that the U.S has a fucking awful, inept President and  European nations have not got a real Statesman amongst them.

I am just a little bit puzzled as to why we haven't been on to OPEC and told them to ramp up production to allow us to fuck Russian oil off.

As for the gas, our reliance on energy from outside of Europe is lamentable.

Too concerned with showing their green credentials  Europe has fucked us all over big time.

We should have been FULLY self sufficient or, at the very least, not reliant on a maniac to supply us BEFORE we started stopping the fossil fuel train.

Anyway, it doesn't matter now, Europe is about to be redrawn and nobody will do fuck all about it because we cannot start WW3.

As you were.

[MortalCaso 1,629]

23 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

By the way, Russia is now trying to capture the Czernobyl nuclear power plant. I mean, a radioactive cloud is just what we're missing right now... a nuclear war without nuclear bombs...

Didn't take long, they have now captured it.

 

The eastern/southern part of the country will fall within the week...likely the capital with it.

[Joey Russ 7,228]

14 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

I think we going to see the UK turn on Germany and it’s allies for refusing support Russia being expelled from the Swift system because of the fact Germany would have a massive energy shortage if that happened. 

Please get this fucker on mod preview, I’m tired of seeing his intentional trolling in this thread (yes, I know it’s intentional and not just personal opinion)

[gcreptile 10,978]

16 minutes ago, ladyfiona said:

 

Good luck to anyone trying to get inside it when you can't visit the Elephant's foot for more than 20 minutes without possibly dying and that's when you are all suited up.

 

Maybe they want to throw the old fireman's uniforms at people from which are still at the hospital in Pripyat. They are the second most radioative thing there.

 

Then there is the rath of the Babushka's who still live in the village who never left/returned to exclusion zone. They will be nice to you as long as you are not invading. Bald and Bankrupt goes there lots.

Bald and Bankrupt hasn't posted in a while. I was kind of curious to know his opinion. His last videos were from right around the corner, here in Berlin. He liked it a lot, and how modern and clean the former GDR was.

[The Old Crem 3,606]

10 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

Please get this fucker on mod preview, I’m tired of seeing his intentional trolling in this thread (yes, I know it’s intentional and not just personal opinion)

I am just stating my perspective on things. 

[TQR 14,399]

Putin will back down now, calm down people.

 

[ladyfiona 2,589]

Found a Ukrainian Youtuber (English speaker) who has left Kyiv to go west and she is vlogging still her experiences with how the invasion is going. Including queues to buy petrol, money and people buying food.

[The Old Crem 3,606]

 

[ladyfiona 2,589]

Money money money.

 

Don't want to risk getting poisoned now do we.

[the_engineer 1,415]

1 hour ago, TQR said:

Putin will back down now, calm down people.

 

 

She'll show him her only fans account.

[the_engineer 1,415]

1 hour ago, The Old Crem said:

I am just stating my perspective on things. 

 

Don't be doing that on here. This forum isn't the beacon of free speech it once was. 

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,219]

3 minutes ago, the_engineer said:

 

Don't be doing that on here. This forum isn't the beacon of free speech it once was. 

Free speech still exists here, it always has.

It has also always been the case that people who write utter bollocks are called out for it.

Nobody has stopped you from saying what you want to say, they won't.

Just stop fucking whining because 99.8% of the membership disagree with you to the point of thinking that you are mad.

Democracy, democracy!

 

[Joey Russ 7,228]

7 minutes ago, the_engineer said:

 

Don't be doing that on here. This forum isn't the beacon of free speech it once was. 

Funny you say that as you still are able to speak loud and clear your opinions on here. 

[arghton 6,751]

11 minutes ago, the_engineer said:

Don't be doing that on here. This forum isn't the beacon of free speech it once was. 

[TQR 14,399]

4 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

Funny you say that as you still are able to speak loud and clear your opinions on here. 

“I’m being silenced”

 

[Toast 16,143]

8 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

Funny you say that as you still are able to speak loud and clear your opinions on here. 

 

Unfortunately.

[the_engineer 1,415]

27 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

Funny you say that as you still are able to speak loud and clear your opinions on here. 

 

 You see you deal in 'absolutes'. Me saying it isn't as open as it was doesn't = no free speech. 

[TQR 14,399]

1 minute ago, the_engineer said:

 

 You see you deal in 'absolutes'. Me saying it isn't as open as it was doesn't = no free speech. 

…but the point being made here is that the vast majority of people disagreeing with you does not mean free speech has diminished in any way, even if some might suggest you read the room. 

[Joey Russ 7,228]

5 minutes ago, the_engineer said:

 

 You see you deal in 'absolutes'. Me saying it isn't as open as it was doesn't = no free speech. 

Oh quit being a whiny bitch whenever you get pushed back on something rather than owning up to your own statements

[the_engineer 1,415]

28 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

Oh quit being a whiny bitch whenever you get pushed back on something rather than owning up to your own statements

 

I fully own up to my statements and opinions and I stand by them. I think it's intellectually dishonest to say I don't. The last thing anyone can say about me is that I don't stand by my statements that's pretty ridiculous.

 

You made an incorrect assumption that I was saying I have no free speech on this forum , maybe you should stand by your statement instead of being a ..... 'insert  immature insult here'