The EU Referendum Hokey Cokey

[Toast 14,849]

 

Also a pattern between the last five PM's and the contenders as successor to Cameron:

 

Margaret Thatcher = dogmatic bitch = Andrea Leadsom

 

John Major = grey man = Liam Fox

 

Tony Blair = smug git = Stephen Crabb

 

Gordon Brown = policy failure = Michael Gove

 

David Cameron = arrogant bully = Theresa May

 

boris Johnson is going to win.

 

 

Only in a poll of which one I would most like to go on the piss with.

[rockhopper penguin 2,264]

Farage hasn't quit as an MEP though. His salary in Euros is worth 10% more since the vote. Hypocrite, shurely not.

[DevonDeathTrip 2,290]

In January I bet money on Teresa May becomi. ng PM by the end of the year at odds of 11/1. I'm quite hopeful about my chances.

 

Oh yes. My biggest ever win, by a long way.

 

I'd like to thank the Derby Dead Pool for giving me the confidence to predict what will happen in the future.

[RoverAndOut 3,486]

 

In January I bet money on Teresa May becomi. ng PM by the end of the year at odds of 11/1. I'm quite hopeful about my chances.

Oh yes. My biggest ever win, by a long way.

 

I'd like to thank the Derby Dead Pool for giving me the confidence to predict what will happen in the future.

Nice one DDT. Though I fear she's going to be Mrs T reincarnate, at least someone earns from her elevation. Care to let us in on how many figures this win runs into..?

[Deathray 2,933]

Do people think May can win the 2020 election?

[RoverAndOut 3,486]

Do people think May can win the 2020 election?

 

Speaking right now...who else is going to win it?

[Bibliogryphon 8,662]

 

Do people think May can win the 2020 election?

 

Speaking right now...who else is going to win it?

 

 

After the last three weeks I am not making any predictions. We don't know what the political landscape will look like by 2020 and she still has to get there. She inherits Cameron's slender majority.

 

Who do we think are going to get the top jobs in her cabinet?

 

She does not seem to have a cabal of pals around her. Dominic Grieve might succeed her as Home Secretary. If she is feeling generous then Andrea Leadsom might get Business I suspect Philip Hammond will stay put and Gove might become Chancellor unless he is seen as Damaged goods now. I think she will take the opportunity to sack Hunt from Health and I hope that Whittingdale goes from Culture.

 

Who can she afford to leave on the backbenchers?

[RoverAndOut 3,486]

 

Do people think May can win the 2020 election?

Speaking right now...who else is going to win it?

After the last three weeks I am not making any predictions. We don't know what the political landscape will look like by 2020 and she still has to get there. She inherits Cameron's slender majority.

Who do we think are going to get the top jobs in her cabinet?

She does not seem to have a cabal of pals around her. Dominic Grieve might succeed her as Home Secretary. If she is feeling generous then Andrea Leadsom might get Business I suspect Philip Hammond will stay put and Gove might become Chancellor unless he is seen as Damaged goods now. I think she will take the opportunity to sack Hunt from Health and I hope that Whittingdale goes from Culture.

Who can she afford to leave on the backbenchers?

 

May is clearly good at keeping her cards close to her chest so any suggestions on her cabinet picks are largely guesswork. I assume tomorrow will be the handover and she'll appoint her cabinet on Thursday. Osborne is out of the Chancellor's job, but will probably get something significant instead, probably Foreign Secretary as it's the only other job he really wants. That would mean Hammond leaving, and I've seen suggestions from the political commentators that he could be her safe pair of hands in the Treasury, so basically a job swap with George. I can't see Gove getting Chancellor, best he can hope for is to keep his Justice position, but she and Gove have never got along (some history on that here) so he may even be out on his ear. He's not even trusted by his colleagues after his backstabbing act on Boris, so she'd have good reason to ditch him. Hunt will go from Health as she seeks a fresh start with the junior doctors, at least cosmetically. I think she may play 'good cop' and announce a halt to the plan to introduce the new contracts in order to conduct some new talks. Who replaces Hunt is debatable. Home Office is a big place to fill, Laura Kuenessberg said she likes her second-in-command at the Home Office, James Brokenshire and may promote him. After all, she knows him and she trusts him and he's been there as long as she was there, so it allows her to maintain some level of control over the department after she's left. Boris will probably get a role if he wants one, maybe DCMS from Whittingdale, as it doesn't upset the Brexit balance, and is a relatively frivolous department. Leadsom will probably get a cabinet role, but probably a junior one. She's also said she's going to create a Brexit Department to deal with all of that, so that will maybe go to Chris Grayling, who backed Leave, but not as prominently as some other options, and also managed her leadership campaign, thus guaranteeing himself a reward at the end of it.

 

Here's my thoughts (changes in italics):

 

Office Cameron May

Prime Minister David Cameron Theresa May

Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne Philip Hammond

Home Secretary Theresa May James Brokenshire

Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond George Osborne

Brexit Secretary N/A Chris Grayling

Justice Secretary Michael Gove Dominic Grieve

Defence Secretary Michael Fallon Michael Fallon

Work and Pensions Secretary Stephen Crabbe Stephen Crabbe

Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt Justine Greening

Leader of the House of Commons Chris Grayling Priti Patel

International Development Secretary Justine Greening Anna Soubry

Education Secretary Nicky Morgan Amber Rudd

Transport Secretary Patrick McLoughlin Patrick McLoughlin

Business Secretary Sajid Javid Sajid Javid

Northern Ireland Secretary Theresa Villiers Theresa Villiers

Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary Liz Truss Liz Truss

Communities and Local Government Greg Clark Greg Clark

Wales Secretary Alun Cairns Alun Cairns

Culture, Media and Sport Secretary John Whittingdale Boris Johnson

Scotland Secretary David Mundell David Mundell

Energy and Climate Change Secretary Amber Rudd Andrea Leadsom

 

Many of these are shots in the dark. I think she'll go for continuity wherever possible, to show stability, so the national offices will stay the same, so will most of the lower cabinet, plus Stephen Crabbe's only been in the DWP 6 months so I expect him to stay. I assume she'll try to promote more women, so I can see Justine Greening getting a promotion (crudely put, her homosexuality admission gives her extra brownie points in the Tory party) and though I dislike Priti Patel as much as you Biblio, I think she'll be promoted to the full cabinet. I put her as Leader of the House because the thought of her somewhere consequential like Education, Health or Energy terrified me. Hunt may get a job, but he did say he thought Health would be his last big post, so he may go to the backbenches. I've promoted Leadsom to the head of the department she's currently a junior minister in, but that's no given. I liked your idea of giving Dominic Grieve a role, but he's a defender of the Human Rights Act, which she'll try and scrap so that may be wishful thinking. Anna Soubry to International Development may be equally optimistic, but she may choose to keep Greening there. In total, of 21 Cabinet positions, I've left 9 the same, reshuffled 6 and promoted/demoted 6. Notable absentees are Hunt, Morgan and Gove who may well stay, perhaps in different departments. Thursday will tell us more.

[Sean 5,999]

My Predictions:

 

Theresa May:Prime Minister

 

Chris Grayling:Foreign Secreatary and Deuty prime Minister/First Secretary of State

 

Phillip Hammond:Chancellor of the Exchequer

 

Justine Greening:Home Secretary and Minister for Women and Equalities

 

Michael Gove:Justice Secretary

 

Amber Rudd:Defence Secretary

 

Sajid Javid:Business Secretary

 

Stephen Crabb:Work and Pensions Secretary

 

David Davis:Brexit Minister

 

Nicky Morgan:Secretary of State for Education

 

Andrea Leadsom:Energy Secretary

 

Boris Johnson:Secretary of state for Culture Media and Sport

 

David Mundell:Scottish Secretary

 

Priti Pate:Communities and Local Government

 

Harriet Baldwin:Transport

 

Liz Truss:International development

 

Anna Soubry:Environment

 

Liam Fox:Health

 

Michael Fallon:Leader of the House of Commons

 

Alun Cairns:Welsh Secretary

 

Theresa Villiers:Northern Ireland

 

James Brokenshire:Chancellor of Duchy of Lancaster

 

Robert Halfon:Party Chairman

 

William Hague:Leader in Lords

 

Iain Duncan Smith:Minister Without Portfolio

 

 

Also attending meetings:

Penny Mourdaunt:Cabinet office Minister

James Brokenshire:Minister of State for Employment

Matthew Hancock:Chief Secretary to the Treasury

Dominic Raab:Small Business Minister

John Whittingdale:Chief Whip

[Deathray 2,933]

What interested in is her style. Cameron is well known for is autonomous departments approach - will she try and centralise?

[Bibliogryphon 8,662]

The Governement has just lost the high court challenge and the ruling states that the triggering of Article 50 needs the consent of parliament. The Government has decided to appeal and this will be heard at the beginning of December. If they lose the appeal then the date of 2019 is looking much less likely.

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,132]

The Governement has just lost the high court challenge and the ruling states that the triggering of Article 50 needs the consent of parliament. The Government has decided to appeal and this will be heard at the beginning of December. If they lose the appeal then the date of 2019 is looking much less likely.

Well that's fucked democracy up the arse.

Id be amazed if there isn't a General Election called sooner rather than later.

[Grim Up North 3,565]

So just to check I've got this right.

The Government, made up of MPs who were in the majority of MPs voted in by the voting public, decided that whether we were in or out of Europe was too big an issue for MPs to decide on their own and we should have a full referendum of all the population entitled to vote.

That population decided roughly 52:48 that they wanted to leave.

To leave Europe the country (presumably personified by the Government) needs to invoke Article 50.

Some of the people in the 48 decided that it wasn't right that article 50 should just be invoked based on the will of the people allowed to vote but instead it should only be invoked by a vote in the Houses of Parliament by MPs whose job is to represent the will of the people who voted for them, but who had already decided that this was too big a job for them to decide on their own.

Today the Court decided that they were right and that the MPs who represent our views have to vote in House of Common to invoke Article 50, which if not invoked will mean we will not leave Europe and therefore the will of the people indicated in the Referendum would not happen.

The smart money suggests that a vote by the MPs who represent the will of the people who elected them will actually vote the opposite way to the way that the people showed was their desire when they were given the vote on the matter due to the fact that the MPs didn't feel they were up to deciding on their own.

Hmmmmm....................................................

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,132]

 

So just to check I've got this right.

The Government, made up of MPs who were in the majority of MPs voted in by the voting public, decided that whether we were in or out of Europe was too big an issue for MPs to decide on their own and we should have a full referendum of all the population entitled to vote.

That population decided roughly 52:48 that they wanted to leave.

To leave Europe the country (presumably personified by the Government) needs to invoke Article 50.

Some of the people in the 48 decided that it wasn't right that article 50 should just be invoked based on the will of the people allowed to vote but instead it should only be invoked by a vote in the Houses of Parliament by MPs whose job is to represent the will of the people who voted for them, but who had already decided that this was too big a job for them to decide on their own.

Today the Court decided that they were right and that the MPs who represent our views have to vote in House of Common to invoke Article 50, which if not invoked will mean we will not leave Europe and therefore the will of the people indicated in the Referendum would not happen.

The smart money suggests that a vote by the MPs who represent the will of the people who elected them will actually vote the opposite way to the way that the people showed was their desire when they were given the vote on the matter due to the fact that the MPs didn't feel they were up to deciding on their own.

Hmmmmm....................................................

 

Its actually much simpler than that.

May holds a general election in the early part of 2017 and sweeps to power with a huge majority.

She then goes to the House with her new mandate and huge majority, asks the MPs to vote in favour of invoking Article 50 and they do.

That's it.

Job done.

[The Mad Hatter 1,091]

Like the MP's are honestly going to vote against the public in a referdum this important, they won't risk it.

[Bibliogryphon 8,662]

The referendum was advisory it allowed the people to express their will. Which was a marginal decision amongst those who bothered to vote to leave the European Union.

 

In order to leave the European Union the Government has to trigger Article 50 but in doing so will break the act of Parliament from 1973 which took us into the European Parliament.

 

The decision in the high court today was that to revoke that piece of legislation needs the consent of parliament. Some MPs will vote as their constituencies voted but that has to work both ways for example would Zac Goldsmith vote with the majority of Richmond voters who want to remain, but this vote will really allow Parliament to shape the type of relationship we want from the EU after we take our leave. It could be that enough Conservative remainers led by Ken (I have nothing to lose) Clarke actually resign the whip and thereby remove Theresa May's working majority in the House of Commons.

 

The High Court did not decide that Article 50 should not be invoked but that it requires the consent of parliament.

 

 

oh and the House of Lords!

[Deathray 2,933]

The referendum was advisory it allowed the people to express their will. Which was a marginal decision amongst those who bothered to vote to leave the European Union.

 

In order to leave the European Union the Government has to trigger Article 50 but in doing so will break the act of Parliament from 1973 which took us into the European Parliament.

 

The decision in the high court today was that to revoke that piece of legislation needs the consent of parliament. Some MPs will vote as their constituencies voted but that has to work both ways for example would Zac Goldsmith vote with the majority of Richmond voters who want to remain, but this vote will really allow Parliament to shape the type of relationship we want from the EU after we take our leave. It could be that enough Conservative remainers led by Ken (I have nothing to lose) Clarke actually resign the whip and thereby remove Theresa May's working majority in the House of Commons.

 

The High Court did not decide that Article 50 should not be invoked but that it requires the consent of parliament.

 

 

oh and the House of Lords!

 

Fun Time, could the parliament act not be used though?

[Bibliogryphon 8,662]

 

The referendum was advisory it allowed the people to express their will. Which was a marginal decision amongst those who bothered to vote to leave the European Union.

 

In order to leave the European Union the Government has to trigger Article 50 but in doing so will break the act of Parliament from 1973 which took us into the European Parliament.

 

The decision in the high court today was that to revoke that piece of legislation needs the consent of parliament. Some MPs will vote as their constituencies voted but that has to work both ways for example would Zac Goldsmith vote with the majority of Richmond voters who want to remain, but this vote will really allow Parliament to shape the type of relationship we want from the EU after we take our leave. It could be that enough Conservative remainers led by Ken (I have nothing to lose) Clarke actually resign the whip and thereby remove Theresa May's working majority in the House of Commons.

 

The High Court did not decide that Article 50 should not be invoked but that it requires the consent of parliament.

 

 

oh and the House of Lords!

 

Fun Time, could the parliament act not be used though?

 

 

Yes but they should take note of objections from the HoL at the first passing of the bill.

 

The Parliament act is for where there is an impasse.

 

It should not be used as a tool to avoid debate

[Lard Bazaar 3,689]

Quick simple question from a Euro-dunce.

 

According to my research, approximately 46.5 million people were eligible to vote in the referendum.

 

Approximately 17.4 million voted to leave. Which means approximately 29.1 million people did not vote to leave.

 

Which surely means the majority of eligible voters did not vote to leave.

 

So why do I have bullshit saying 'don't betray the majority of British people' all over my f ucking Facebook, when it clearly wasn't the majority of British people that voted to leave, it was the majority of VOTERS that voted to leave?

 

I'm obviously missing something very simple.

[rockhopper penguin 2,264]

Quick simple question from a Euro-dunce.

 

According to my research, approximately 46.5 million people were eligible to vote in the referendum.

 

Approximately 17.4 million voted to leave. Which means approximately 29.1 million people did not vote to leave.

 

Which surely means the majority of eligible voters did not vote to leave.

 

So why do I have bullshit saying 'don't betray the majority of British people' all over my f ucking Facebook, when it clearly wasn't the majority of British people that voted to leave, it was the majority of VOTERS that voted to leave?

 

I'm obviously missing something very simple.

Ah democracy is such a dangerous weapon you really shouldn't give it to the people. The referendum vote was to leave the EU and leave we will. How we leave and the relationship we have other countries moving forward will be up for ongoing debate. That will be the subject of manifestos and MPs electoral pledges moving forward for years to come. The subtleties will be too much for people who simply wanted to stop dusky looking people from living next door and don't like judges telling them they can't string up any paediatrician they find.

[Lard Bazaar 3,689]

Still don't get it. It's like saying that murdering your granny is fine because you took a vote on it where all the voters were granny murderers. I couldn't give two fucks if we are in or out, I just don't get all these people saying 'the majority of Britain voted out' because the majority of Britain did not vote out. I'm obviously not cut out for this politics shit.

[Bibliogryphon 8,662]

If remain had won by a similar margin there would have been a recognition that almost half the voters had seriois concerns about issues like immigration which would need to be addressed but so far the attitude of Leavers to remainers is "You lost suckers choke it down"

[Sir Creep 7,013]

If remain had won by a similar margin there would have been a recognition that almost half the voters had seriois concerns about issues like immigration which would need to be addressed but so far the attitude of Leavers to remainers is "You lost suckers choke it down"

To the victors go the spoils. That's how elections work. Your not voting on a percentage of input in decisions. The Brexit people won and rule the day; get to decide and establish the rules and policies and procedures to make it happen.

You might say, in a sense, their message should be 'you lost suckers choke it down.'

 

What the hell did you think the losing side was supposed to get, a participation trophy?

 

Today someone is going to get over 40 million votes and 42% of the vote and lose, and guess what concern the winner will have about those people when establishing rules and policies and procedures and putting a cabinet together. You got it....

SC

[rockhopper penguin 2,264]

 

If remain had won by a similar margin there would have been a recognition that almost half the voters had seriois concerns about issues like immigration which would need to be addressed but so far the attitude of Leavers to remainers is "You lost suckers choke it down"

To the victors go the spoils. That's how elections work. Your not voting on a percentage of input in decisions. The Brexit people won and rule the day; get to decide and establish the rules and policies and procedures to make it happen.

You might say, in a sense, their message should be 'you lost suckers choke it down.'

 

What the hell did you think the losing side was supposed to get, a participation trophy?

 

Today someone is going to get over 40 million votes and 42% of the vote and lose, and guess what concern the winner will have about those people when establishing rules and policies and procedures and putting a cabinet together. You got it....

SC

 

True, except Brexit wasn't as simple as that. The ballot paper said do you want to be in the EU. It didn't say end immigration, don't join a single market etc. If we look to do trade deals with countries outside the EU, say with... oh I don't know let's say India and they want work permits for their citizens, do we make that deal?

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,132]

Quick simple question from a Euro-dunce.

 

According to my research, approximately 46.5 million people were eligible to vote in the referendum.

 

Approximately 17.4 million voted to leave. Which means approximately 29.1 million people did not vote to leave.

 

Which surely means the majority of eligible voters did not vote to leave.

 

So why do I have bullshit saying 'don't betray the majority of British people' all over my f ucking Facebook, when it clearly wasn't the majority of British people that voted to leave, it was the majority of VOTERS that voted to leave?

 

I'm obviously missing something very simple.

They didn't vote to remain either.

Im not sure why the 29.1 million who couldn't be asked to put a fucking tick on a piece of paper should be given any due consideration.