Derby Dead Pool 2016

[gcreptile 10,964]

Alright, I expected drama, and now it begins:

 

First hit for my terminal illness theme team, and as expected, it's Sarah Jones, the Joker, on New Year's Day:

 

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/brave-mum-three-dies-cancer-7112276

[msc 18,437]

Does seem like there might be mass carnage this year. From the lists published here, I'd guess the following as close as we get to dead certs in this post-Wilko Johnson world: Joey Feek, Kate Granger (and even then...), Martin Crowe, Howard Marks, Jenny Diski, Rene Angelil, Rob Ford, Joost van der Westhuizen, Dan Haggerty, Hassan Asif, Tony Adamowicz, Andrew Smith, Eric Lubbock, Peter Esterhazy, Bonnie Brown, Monty Brinson, Kris Travis, Rowena Kincaid, Luke Halpin. Oh, and Michel Delpech (est morte). Now, some of those will certainly outlive the odds, and some might not get obits, but presuming they all did die, and get an obit, then a table of Deathlist forum regulars would so far look like this:

 

 

1. Spade 130
2. Captain Chorizo 104 (Heading Nowhere)
3. Garn2 97
4. Eesti 95
5. Death Impends 92
6. Switch 90
7. Dead Cow 86 (Still Life)
8. DDT 84
9. Shaun of the Dead 80
10. Gcreptile 79
11. Rotten Ali 72
12. Going Underground 70
13. Banshees Scream 67
14. Pedro67 66
15. Deadsox 65
16. Sir Creep 64
17. Drunkasaskunk 61
18. Vignos 54
19. Unknown Man 51
20. Morbid Kid 36
21. Vinegar Tits 23
22. YoungWilz 18
23. Lard Bazaar 7

 

Now, that's not counting folk with cancer who are 50/50, or old folk (because they're a lottery), and, as Wilko, Sam Simon and Valerie Harper show respectively, sometimes folk have miraculous recoveries, sometimes folk hang on for an extra year, and sometimes folk take ages. Plus, there's got to be a reason, beyond age, a bunch of you all picked Pat Harrington.

 

 

It does suggest Chorizo and Garn have teams to look out for this year, though.

 

 

Final proof this methodology is a bit rubbish? It would have my team scoring 100 points. Yeah, right, and I'm Pope Francis.

[Spade_Cooley 9,515]

Pat Harrington's daughter did a "my father is slipping away...." Facebook post before Xmas and it was promptly seized upon by America's proud and honourable supermarket checkout tabloid media.

[Toast 16,130]

I haven't posted my teams up, but I calculate I'd be in that list on the 65 mark.

[gcreptile 10,964]

According to my own calculations, my main team gets 116,36 pts this year, which in an ordinary year would be enough to win. But I expect this year will be furious and absolutely record-breaking because of the more liberal distribution of names (of which I was probably guilty of). My B-Team gets 100.52+whatever Fast Eddie Fryer would get if I knew his age. My wish is a top 10-place in my second year. I probably need another year to fine-tune my obitability sense and medical knowledge.

[Phantom 2,533]

I've updated my lists within my signature. This year for the first time I'm doing a theme team.

[Death Impends 7,957]

Think when the time comes to plan for next year I may make a goal to prioritize those dead certs with 50/50 obit chances more over 50/50 illnesses. This year's a mix of both.

[Sir Creep 7,070]

Sir Creep's main DDP team calculates at ~66 points, and that is NOT including the certain death of one Andrew Smith, who I will presume fails to obit, but chances need be taken, and this was Sir Creep's one biggie. With a little help he could hit 80, but that is still a failure.
SC

[JiroemonKimura 95]

#1-20 in my signature is my main team, would anyone mind predicting my score?

 

I personally expect to get Feek, Angelil, Marks, Crowe, and a few others.

[Sir Creep 7,070]

Sir Creep's main DDP team calculates at ~66 points, and that is NOT including the certain death of one Andrew Smith, who I will presume fails to obit, but chances need be taken, and this was Sir Creep's one biggie. With a little help he could hit 80, but that is still a failure.

SC

Edit: for clarification sake...

 

Theae are CERTAIN hits:

Hassan Asif (JOKER)

Tony Adamowicz

Martin Crowe

Bob Ellis

Joey Feek

Patrick Harrington Jr.

Yoshiro Nakamatsu

Richard Overton

Andrew Smith

Huston Smith

 

These are LIKELY hits that would help out:

‘Superstar’ Billy Graham

Emma Morano (Martinuzzi)

Sharon Percy Rockefeller (I've a feeling she's a solo)

Nobby Stiles

 

These are POSSIBLE hits I need 2 to come through to compete:

Barbara Barrie

Jenny Diski

Jeannie Little

 

The rest were strictly defensive picks I don't expect to die but don't want people pulling away from me cuz I left them off if they do.

[YoungWillz 21,028]

Here's my team for 2015. I've sacked all survivors from last years squad, apart from Martin Crowe.

 

The Living End

 

Joey Feek (Joker)

Jenny Diski

Phil Gartside

Mary Lucas

Kris Travis

Martin Crowe

Louise Plowright

Gary Haggarty

Peter Esterhazy

Bonnie Brown

Eric Lubbock, Lord Avebury.

Rob Ford

Věra Čáslavská

Thomas Fekete

Ronald Mulkearns

Errol Christie

Aden Hailu

Rene Angeli

Sir Peter Maxwell-Davies

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

 

Aden Hailu dead, 20 years old, 4 January. http://bigstory.ap.org/article/6b8cc5d0fd3f4577ac023b676092d9f4/latest-woman-nevada-end-life-case-dies

 

Daily Mail Obit: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-3385780/The-Latest-Woman-Nevada-end-life-case-dies.html

[Dr. Zorders 1,271]

Sir Creep's main DDP team calculates at ~66 points, and that is NOT including the certain death of one Andrew Smith, who I will presume fails to obit, but chances need be taken, and this was Sir Creep's one biggie. With a little help he could hit 80, but that is still a failure.

SC

Edit: for clarification sake...

 

Theae are CERTAIN hits:

Hassan Asif (JOKER)

Tony Adamowicz

Martin Crowe

Bob Ellis

Joey Feek

Patrick Harrington Jr.

Yoshiro Nakamatsu

Richard Overton

Andrew Smith

Huston Smith

 

These are LIKELY hits that would help out:

‘Superstar’ Billy Graham

Emma Morano (Martinuzzi)

Sharon Percy Rockefeller (I've a feeling she's a solo)

Nobby Stiles

 

These are POSSIBLE hits I need 2 to come through to compete:

Barbara Barrie

Jenny Diski

Jeannie Little

 

The rest were strictly defensive picks I don't expect to die but don't want people pulling away from me cuz I left them off if they do.

You could end up going through the Overton Window?

(*crickets*)

[viGnoS 18]

does anyone found a valid obit about Michel Delpech ??

[gcreptile 10,964]

does anyone found a valid obit about Michel Delpech ??

Not yet, but one probably has to wait until the next weekend for it. His "Wight is Wight" should guarantee a telegraph obit. But they're still in 2015 with their obits. Only the Stigwood obit is from this year, because of the newsworthiness, I guess, but they're still in the catching up process with the two "fresh" obits from Lady Bader and Hocine Ait Ahmed. If there's no obit by Sunday, I will start to worry.

[YoungWillz 21,028]

Sir Creep's joker in one of his teams has died with a qualifying obit - Hassan Asif: http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jan/06/hassan-asif-whose-family-were-initially-refused-visas-to-visit-dies-in-Melbourne

 

Anyone else who had him for any other deadpools, do check you get your credit.

[Sir Creep 7,070]

Sir Creep's joker in one of his teams has died with a qualifying obit - Hassan Asif: http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jan/06/hassan-asif-whose-family-were-initially-refused-visas-to-visit-dies-in-Melbourne

 

Anyone else who had him for any other deadpools, do check you get your credit.

Spade Cooley had him as joker as well DDP 16

[Youth in Asia 1,086]

Not sure if Guardian Australia qualifies under the new rules, shouldn't it be on Guardian UK or the main obit section? I can't see any connection at all with the UK - Guardian Australia is a separate operation, as is Guardian US.

 

The rules state:

 

And from the UK versions of the following:

telegraph.co.uk

thetimes.co.uk

ft.com

theguardian.com

independent.co.uk

dailymail.co.uk

express.co.uk

dailystar.co.uk

thesun.co.uk

mirror.co.uk

morningstaronline.co.uk

(this includes those on the death announcements section of broadsheet websites)

--

Hassan is on the Australian guardian not the UK version (all 3, Aus, UK and US are combined under theguardian.com ). The rules specifically stipulate the UK version. He's not in the death announcements section either.

Anyway I'm sure he will get an obit on one of the qualifying sources at some point.

Edit: concerning the person who wrote the article:

"Helen Davidson is a reporter for Guardian Australia, based in Darwin."

2nd Edit: if they wanted it to include everything on theguardian.com it would not say "And from the UK versions of the following" it would say "and from the following websites".

Edited January 6, 2016 by Youth in Asia

[Spade_Cooley 9,515]

I think you've massively misunderstood how newspapers work. By your logic, if Barack Obama was assassinated he wouldn't qualify for an obituary because his death wouldn't be covered in the "UK" section of any newspapers, and a US-based reporter would file copy on it. It counts. The four-peat is on.

[Magere Hein 1,400]

The four-peat is on.

 

Uh-oh.

[Youth in Asia 1,086]

I think you've massively misunderstood how newspapers work. By your logic, if Barack Obama was assassinated he wouldn't qualify for an obituary because his death wouldn't be covered in the "UK" section of any newspapers, and a US-based reporter would file copy on it. It counts. The four-peat is on.

 

It's not a question of how newspapers work, it's a question of the rules of this competition. Which I believe are written quite clearly, and have changed quite a bit since last year. Presumably to stop people picking non-famous year-end non-UK-related terminal cancer victims, which defeats the purpose of a UK celebrity deathlist competition. If you don't agree with the new rules, better to challenge them before the year starts.

 

Obama would have a full obituary on every single one of those papers, not a brief article written by an Australian journalist for the Australian online edition of the paper.

[Spade_Cooley 9,515]

But the news would still not be in the UK section.

[Magere Hein 1,400]

But the news would still not be in the UK section.

 

It might get mentioned, in the royalty section, say.

[Youth in Asia 1,086]

It doesn't say "UK section". The rule says "UK version", which includes, UK, Sport, Obituaries, Tech, Women etc. Whether the "UK version" also includes the Australian section is a question perhaps only TMIB can answer, however I'm not sure why the rules would specify the UK version of online papers, and then give a list of papers all of which have UK websites (ie are all UK versions) except for the FT and Guardian. To me the reference to UK version is designed to exclude Guardian US and Guardian Australia and foreign editions of the FT - otherwise I'm not sure why "UK version" is specified.

[gcreptile 10,964]

I do like that the cracks are mostly neutralizing each other, for example, Sir Creep and Spade stealing the unique away from each other, or similarly, both me and DDT picking Ronald Mulkearns and Gary Haggarty.

On the other hand, this is slowly turning into two different competitions, one of them basically being a game checking the newspapers in the final week of the year for any kind of hospitalised terminal cancer "celebrities", and the other one being the originally intended celebrity deadpool. I wanted to show the ridiculousness of it with my theme team. But it's also showing outside of that, and I think my suggested rule of requiring a wikipedia page in any language, created in the year before picking the team, is sounding more correct each time to prevent a perversion of the system.

The "really" famous cancer celebrities, Kate Granger or Kristin Hallenga, have these wikipedia pages, by the way.

[gcreptile 10,964]

Breaking news: My pick Pierre Boulez has died, now that's a celebrity, a giant of classical music:

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-35241250

 

Edit: I wonder if he was a unique. I was already scared when he got mentioned for reasons of age and french-ness by either Shaun or Davy Jones Locker, neither of them picked him in the end. By accident, I got to know that he was too sick to attend his own 90th birthday gala and later read that he was bedridden.