Donald J Trump

[YoungWillz 21,023]

3 minutes ago, TQR said:

Colorado Supreme Court declares him ineligible for US Presidency under the constitution’s insurrection clause.

Wonder if they will fast track this at the Supreme Court level on appeal. The argument of ineligibility was rejected in some other State I believe.

 

On a strict reading of the Constitution I agree with Colorado, but let's see.

[The Old Crem 3,580]

3 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

Wonder if they will fast track this at the Supreme Court level on appeal. The argument of ineligibility was rejected in some other State I believe.

 

On a strict reading of the Constitution I agree with Colorado, but let's see.

Of course they will. Be interesting to see what the court does. Rule him out and another republican becomes President next year (Biden has little chance of beating Trump - he will lose in a landslide to someone like Haley.)

 

[The Old Crem 3,580]

 

[Brad252 806]

I was thinking how has Trump managed to not have a heart attack given the frequent rage he's shown at his age? Then I remembered he doesn't have one.

[maryportfuncity 10,639]

8 hours ago, Brad252 said:

I was thinking how has Trump managed to not have a heart attack given the frequent rage he's shown at his age? Then I remembered he doesn't have one.

 

 

Seriously, you and me both

 

Overweight and has his clothing cut to hide the fact, 77, prone to rages anyway and under severe stress from all sides, legal, political and personal and also fond of burgers and cokes. Heart attack/stroke on a plate, frankly.

[MrWonderful 480]

22 hours ago, The Old Crem said:

Of course they will. Be interesting to see what the court does. Rule him out and another republican becomes President next year (Biden has little chance of beating Trump - he will lose in a landslide to someone like Haley.)

 

Biden's best chance, by far, is if Trump is the nominee of the GOP.  Trump may be ahead in polls now, but he has so much baggage that I still think he would lose, as the campaign season really gets in gear next year.  As I've argued before, presidential elections here are decided in a few swing states by enough people who could vote either way as independents.  And for those people, it often comes down to rationalizing in their minds "the lesser of two evils."  And in Trump's case, he elicits such hatred from so many.  When it was Trump vs. Hillary, it was actually Hillary who was disliked more by enough of these people, so Trump won.  In the last election, it was the other way around; people may think Biden is too old or past his prime or whatever, but these type of voters don't actually dislike or hate Biden.  He doesn't elicit that type of emotional response from swing voters.  And my contention is that Trump has even more baggage now, easily, than he did during the 2020 election season.  I believe Trump will lose if he's the nominee.  I also believe that Haley would beat Biden, because of what I said above.  She wouldn't be hated by swing voters, even those who disagree with her, and she would draw enough of a contrast to Biden's perceived weak points (she's younger, she's not in cognitive decline, etc.) that I think she would win.  (As for those arguing that Biden is old and in cognitive decline, well, those same points apply to Trump.)

 

We'll see, but that's been my theory for the past year or so.  Of course, I wasn't factoring in the whole Israel-Hamas stuff then, and here in the U.S. it seems like the majority of younger people, and certainly young people of color, are very much anti-Israel.  Even though Biden himself has clearly stated his support for Israel (and the U.S. even vetoed a UN resolution that would have called for a ceasefire, remember), I do wonder if those white voters from swing states could vote for Trump almost as a fuck you to liberals.  

 

EDIT:  And as I posted this, I just noticed a NY Times poll that has Biden ahead of Trump now.  Anyway, yeah, those are my thoughts, the thoughts of a gay Californian who nonetheless tries to remain objective when it comes to presidential politics and analyzing elections.  

[Comped 525]

5 minutes ago, MrWonderful said:

Of course, I wasn't factoring in the whole Israel-Hamas stuff then, and here in the U.S. it seems like the majority of younger people, and certainly young people of color, are very much anti-Israel.  Even though Biden himself has clearly stated his support for Israel (and the U.S. even vetoed a UN resolution that would have called for a ceasefire, remember), I do wonder if those white voters from swing states could vote for Trump almost as a fuck you to liberals.  

The Israeli-Hamas war has also caused Trump to increase in support from many Arab-Americans (per NYTimes poll from a few weeks back( who happen to be in some very important swing states). Ironic because Trump was pro-Israel in office and made significant strides in Arab-Israeli peace deals during his term (I'd expect more if he becomes President). Not to mention Trump has also increased his support in multiple African American and Hispanic demographic groups as well... To points unseen by the GOP in decades.

[MrWonderful 480]

1 minute ago, Comped said:

The Israeli-Hamas war has also caused Trump to increase in support from many Arab-Americans (per NYTimes poll from a few weeks back( who happen to be in some very important swing states). Ironic because Trump was pro-Israel in office and made significant strides in Arab-Israeli peace deals during his term (I'd expect more if he becomes President). Not to mention Trump has also increased his support in multiple African American and Hispanic demographic groups as well... To points unseen by the GOP in decades.

I think he's increased his support a little bit among younger AA men, that's true.  I see this on social media for sure.  However, they are not as likely to vote as AA women are, or older AA men are.  Overall, I still believe he will have too much baggage to win, but we'll see.  

[Brad252 806]

13 hours ago, Comped said:

The Israeli-Hamas war has also caused Trump to increase in support from many Arab-Americans (per NYTimes poll from a few weeks back( who happen to be in some very important swing states). Ironic because Trump was pro-Israel in office and made significant strides in Arab-Israeli peace deals during his term (I'd expect more if he becomes President). Not to mention Trump has also increased his support in multiple African American and Hispanic demographic groups as well... To points unseen by the GOP in decades.

The most pro-Israel policy he pursued was declaring Jerusalem their official capital.

[gcreptile 10,963]

14 hours ago, MrWonderful said:

Biden's best chance, by far, is if Trump is the nominee of the GOP.  Trump may be ahead in polls now, but he has so much baggage that I still think he would lose, as the campaign season really gets in gear next year.

I do agree, I find it somewhat funny that the USA have found themselves in a prisoner's dilemma, i.e. Biden would probably lose to Nikki Haley, possibly even Chris Christie. Trump would probably lose to Gavin Newsom or Gretchen Whitmer. It's only that both parties have somewhat assumed that the other party's candidate will be Trump/Biden and they need to field the same candidate again.

[Death Impends 7,953]

Being a foil to Donald Trump was pretty much the only way Biden could become president. If he pulls it off again next year he'll practically have won the lottery.

[prussianblue 1,025]

I was looking up the data as I understood US economic growth to be very healthy (at least rates that the rest of the west would kill for), and that should surely count in Biden's favour. Most of the post-covid/Trump numbers are good. GDP is up, unemployment is down, debt is down. Rishi would be envious of net migration figures halving in 2 years.

Perhaps of most interest for our purposes is that life expectancy has started going down, from 79 in 2019 to 76 in 2021. The murder rate has almost doubed in the past decade.

It's quite a rabbit warren: https://data.worldbank.org/country/united-states?view=chart

 

 

[Charles De Gaulle 484]

1 hour ago, prussianblue said:

I was looking up the data as I understood US economic growth to be very healthy (at least rates that the rest of the west would kill for), and that should surely count in Biden's favour. Most of the post-covid/Trump numbers are good. GDP is up, unemployment is down, debt is down. Rishi would be envious of net migration figures halving in 2 years.

Perhaps of most interest for our purposes is that life expectancy has started going down, from 79 in 2019 to 76 in 2021. The murder rate has almost doubed in the past decade.

It's quite a rabbit warren: https://data.worldbank.org/country/united-states?view=chart

 

 

The thing is crime is linked to socioeconomic hardship. In Ireland there's been a rise of crime as well linked to the increased cost of living. The economic growth hides the fact that the vast majority of people are now worse off than ever before. 

 

"The most pro-Israel policy he pursued was declaring Jerusalem their official capital." 

 

And that is an extremely significant gesture btw. Massive middle finger to the Palestinians that lived there. Keep in mind the current president literally went to the US and spoke on the senate floor in support of Trump in 2016.

[The Old Crem 3,580]

It’s bonkers that pro Palestine Arab Americans would then vote for a Trump who will ban Palestinians alongside many other Muslims from entering the USA. For example there are genuine thinking FIFA and the IOC will have to decide between cancelling their tournaments or seeing whole countries banned from entering due Trump’s bans. 

[Comped 525]

4 hours ago, The Old Crem said:

It’s bonkers that pro Palestine Arab Americans would then vote for a Trump who will ban Palestinians alongside many other Muslims from entering the USA. For example there are genuine thinking FIFA and the IOC will have to decide between cancelling their tournaments or seeing whole countries banned from entering due Trump’s bans. 

Athletes are given dispensation from these kinds of bans. (Assuming any qualify.) They have a special visa category that's different from normal tourism for a reason.

 

No chance that Trump would risk not being able to host an Olympics and World Cup (perhaps women's as well), alongside a number of other sporting events, during his second term. He appreciates attention too much.

 

(That's according to a professor of mine from grad school who focuses on political issues arising from megaevents, and a good dose of common sense.)

[lilham 752]

Trump off the ballot in a second state, Maine.

[The Old Crem 3,580]

Feel like this only makes it more and more likely on January 20th 2025 Trump is back as president. 

[lilham 752]

23 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

Feel like this only makes it more and more likely on January 20th 2025 Trump is back as president. 

I don't. I think it does the opposite. His success from 2016 came from never really being punished for anything, and the media being able to play that his criminal background was equal to that of Hillary's. He's getting what he should have gotten decades ago, and the pile on will be worse. Removing him from the ballots is telling voters that he is damaging America, akin to the Confederacy, as that was what the amendment was written to address. Recall that the Colorado lawsuit was filed by a group of Republicans and independents, as Democrats actually don't have access to the Republican primary ballot so they have no standing in court.

[The Old Crem 3,580]

Just now, lilham said:

I don't. I think it does the opposite. His success from 2016 came from never really being punished for anything, and the media being able to play that his criminal background was equal to that of Hillary's. He's getting what he should have gotten decades ago, and the pile on will be worse. Removing him from the ballots is telling voters that he is damaging America, akin to the Confederacy, as that was what the amendment was written to address. Recall that the Colorado lawsuit was filed by a group of Republicans and independents, as Democrats actually don't have access to the Republican primary ballot so they have no standing in court.

I don’t think that is how it comes across through. 

[lilham 752]

23 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

I don’t think that is how it comes across through. 

Comes across to you personally? Or to enough voters?

All of the lawsuits are demonstrating that he is losing voters, so the argument has to be that he is replacing more voters than he is losing. I don't see Maine barring him will entice those outside the base.

[TQR 14,384]

7 minutes ago, lilham said:

Comes across to you personally? Or to enough voters?

 

To his crank uncle, the one who's spitting feathers because some people don't eat meat.

[Comped 525]

3 hours ago, lilham said:

I don't. I think it does the opposite. His success from 2016 came from never really being punished for anything, and the media being able to play that his criminal background was equal to that of Hillary's. He's getting what he should have gotten decades ago, and the pile on will be worse. Removing him from the ballots is telling voters that he is damaging America, akin to the Confederacy, as that was what the amendment was written to address. Recall that the Colorado lawsuit was filed by a group of Republicans and independents, as Democrats actually don't have access to the Republican primary ballot so they have no standing in court.

SCOTUS will likely overturn it though (at least when it comes to the general when he's the nominee). You have state Supreme Courts from states on both sides of the aisle allowing him access, in the idea that voters should decide (which isn't a bad argument and likely has precedent with various other ballot access cases). No chance SCOTUS goes in favor of disallowing access. Not with how the Court is made up at the moment.

[lilham 752]

1 hour ago, Comped said:

SCOTUS will likely overturn it though (at least when it comes to the general when he's the nominee). You have state Supreme Courts from states on both sides of the aisle allowing him access, in the idea that voters should decide (which isn't a bad argument and likely has precedent with various other ballot access cases). No chance SCOTUS goes in favor of disallowing access. Not with how the Court is made up at the moment.

Oh I see that point, and I was saying the above, even assuming that happens. I imagine the Court will say that on the terms that he doesn't have a conviction for the insurrection yet. I guess they could say that that amendment only relates to the 1861 rebellion, but I don't see that being a majority of the Court signing for that.

I don't think it boosts his voters though. He's still been losing voters with all these lawsuits and felonies against him.

[gcreptile 10,963]

Melania's mother is very ill:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12916489/Donald-Trump-confirms-Melanias-mother-Amalija-78-ill-causing-former-lady-skip-New-Years-Eve-party-Mar-Lago-tough-situation-told-adoring-crowd-toast-ring-2024.html

[Windsor 2,233]

2 hours ago, gcreptile said:

Melania's mother is very ill:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12916489/Donald-Trump-confirms-Melanias-mother-Amalija-78-ill-causing-former-lady-skip-New-Years-Eve-party-Mar-Lago-tough-situation-told-adoring-crowd-toast-ring-2024.html

This is terrible news. Just after the DDP deadline…