Derby Dead Pool 2017

[WidowsPeak 13]

First time I joined. My list for 2017 :

 

Joker (Pick 1): Bruce Forsyth
Pick 2: Prince Phillip
Pick 3: Kirk Douglas
Pick 4: Donald Trump
Pick 5: Bill Wyman
Pick 6: Denis Norden
Pick 7: King Michael Of Romania
Pick 8: Bernard Cribbins
Pick 9: George Bush Snr
Pick 10: Nicholas Parsons
Pick 11: Buzz Aldrin
Pick 12: Brian Blessed
Pick 13: Jack Nicholson
Pick 14: Angela Lansbury
Pick 15: Terry Jones (Monty Python)
Pick 16: Maggie Smith
Pick 17: Doris Day
Pick 18: Nichelle Nichols (Uhura/Star Trek)
Pick 19: Jimmy Armfield (Footballer/Commentator)
Pick 20: Murray Walker

 

No real left field choices

[Eesti 151]

DDP Tofoa

 

1. Leah Bracknell 52 (JOKER) (listed 2017)

2. Errol Christie 53 (2017)

3. Peter Skellern 69 (2017)

4. Glen Campbell 80 (2017)

5. Clive James 77 (2013-2017)

6. Joost van der Westhuizen 45 (2014-2017)

7. Helmut Kohl 86 (2016-2017)

8. Colin Meads 80 (2017)

9. Antony Booth 85 (2017)

10. Gay Byrne 82 (2017)

11. Nobby Stiles 74 (2017)

12. Ian St John 78 (2017)

13. Bart Starr 82 (2017)

14. Yoshiro Nakamatsu 88 (2017)

15. Valerie Harper 77 (2014, 2017)

16. Mary Tyler Moore 80 (2015, 2017)

17. Michael I of Romania 95 (2017)

18. Joe Jackson 88 (2017)

19. Bruce Forsyth 88 (2017)

20. Shannen Doherty 45 (2017)

Any (real) bad picks?

[Sir Creep 7,070]

As mentioned in chat, I figured Rayya Elias would be the 2017 Bob Benmosche. The lock who evades public mention, but you know will be on a fair few contender's lists.

We have a chat room? :-/

I'd take twenty Benmosches eh

[Sir Creep 7,070]

 

 

Sir Creep - Cancel My Appointments

Patrick Bowlen

Colin Butts

Rico Constantino

Errol Christie

Rayya Elias (Joker)

Scott Hamilton

Mo Haque

Sasha Lokovic

Tracy McGiffin

Sir Colin Meads

Vincent Mullins

Richard Overton

Nabeel Qureshi

Simon Ricketts

Peter Skellern

Mario Soares

Valeri Spiridinov

John Wetton

Mike IX Williams

Paul Van Zandvliet

Sub: PM Patrick John

Note: after realizing I totally forgot Glen Campbell I sent an immediate email saying put Campbell in for Wetton, so it sure the ruling. I'll be the only dolt without Glen Campbell otherwise.

Good luck everyone!

SC

 

Wetton is a dead cert,assuming Campbell goes and Wetton doesn't make drop 40(most likely) it's only a net 1 point loss.

Vincent Mullins appears to already be dead: http://www.crawfordacrim.com/obituaries/Vince-Mullins/

 

I wouldn't put all my money on Campbell. Alzheimer's folks are kinda hard to predict. Peter Falk was diagnosed with the disease 8 years ago, and is still lingering on.

 

Wait, Peter who?

Wouldn't be the first time I did that. In fact it seems an annual thing. Maybe a different Mullins? Ah well thank goodness I had an alt pick, I almost didn't put one. I don't do follow up on the web, I figure we Police our posts pretty well and if dude was dead someone woulda said so. With over 300 names to review (this year) that process ain't going to change. IOW I blame YOU not me :-)

SC

[Sir Creep 7,070]

Teams I'll be watching out for in 2017, the pre-squad announcement contenders if you will:

 

 

• Davey's Showbiz Pals/Living End/Thomas Jefferson Survives - fairly obvious
• Heading Nowhere - to see if they can build on this (what looks to be, as of 2pm Hogmanay) near miss.
• The Love Boat - who I suspect will be far improved in 2017.
• Rad Guy's To Kill a Gabor Sister (or name changed) and Joey Russ's Day in the Death - Not likely to win, but newish teams bouyant about their chances...
• Golden Slumbers - Bert made a record score in 2016 with nae research after all...
• Cancel My Appointments - I think Sir Creep will be much closer to the top in 2017.
• The Grey Horde - If they don't show up...
• Octopus of Odstock - Well, you never know...

Thanks for the love. I had 86 points and never had a hit after August or so (!!) -- only Adamowicz who went to the Lost. Hard to believe none of my team passed on in the second half. So 32nd place it was and if credited with 7 for Adamowicz it'd been 21st place. That's a fair cop. I dunno what to think of my 2017 squad -- no guarantees like Feek-Harrington-ASmith when you just knew you were loaded for bear.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

I'm sure someone you selected is a complete fraud (won't tell you who though). You're probably going to say that Brady was a fraud as well, but he was a gut pick when I selected him.

[drunkasaskunk 194]

Did anyone pick "Second Girl" ??

 

https://news.google.com/news/story?ncl=dhiWXcms2eu0ADMjbJx93_IiHYLeM&q=has+died&lr=English&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiqoLz14aPRAhUqIcAKHUTfD74QqgIIJjAA

 

 

 

It reminds me of a story my brother told me.

 

He was perusing the wine shelves in a large supermarket when an assistant asked if he needed any help.

 

"Yes" he replied.

 

"I was in a restaurant last night and I was served an exquisite wine with my venison" he said.

 

"Do you remember the name?" asked the assistant.

 

"Yes" replied my brother. "It was 'HOUSE RED.'

[Deathray 2,940]

Did anyone pick "Second Girl" ??

 

https://news.google.com/news/story?ncl=dhiWXcms2eu0ADMjbJx93_IiHYLeM&q=has+died&lr=English&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiqoLz14aPRAhUqIcAKHUTfD74QqgIIJjAA

 

 

None of the dead pools on this site or Derby Dead Pool allow the entry of minors thankfully.

 

There was a few high profile cases towards the end of last year that would've made me give up deadpooling if I saw them on anybodies list if the over 18's only rule hadn't been place.

 

 

[Joey Russ 7,220]

 

Did anyone pick "Second Girl" ??

 

https://news.google.com/news/story?ncl=dhiWXcms2eu0ADMjbJx93_IiHYLeM&q=has+died&lr=English&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiqoLz14aPRAhUqIcAKHUTfD74QqgIIJjAA

 

None of the dead pools on this site or Derby Dead Pool allow the entry of minors thankfully.

 

There was a few high profile cases towards the end of last year that would've made me give up deadpooling if I saw them on anybodies list if the over 18's only rule hadn't been place.

Hartlepool does, but you lose points for selecting those minors.

[Predictor 1,018]

Here's my three deadpool teams

 

TEAM BLUEBERRY CRUMBLE

 

1) Thomas Keneally (author of Schiendlers ark -inspiration for Oscar glorious film Schiendlers list)

2) Mary Wilson (widow of ex PM Harold Wilson)

3) James Lovelock (gaia theory)

4) Dorothy Malone

5) Julie Goodyear

6) Rosamunde Pilcher (British author)

7) Sidney Poitier

8) Hans Rausing SNR (Swedish billionaire inherited tetrapak empire)

9) Poul Schuter (former pm of Denmark)

10) Jack Nicholson

11) Hubert De Givenchy (fashion designer)

12) Frederick B Dent (US Secretary of commerce under Nixon Ford)

13) Arthur Irving (Canadian billionaire of the Irving Group)

14) Nick Nolte (us actor)

15) Barbara Bush

16) Queen Sofia of Spain

17) Nigel Lawson

18) Estelle Parsons (us actress)

19) Liz Dawn

20) Cleo Laine

Like I promised you, I'll begin with your blueberry team.

 

First off, the majority of the people here seem to be distinguished within their own fields and would likely get a qualified obituary (QO). The ones who might risk ending up on the "list of the lost" (a.k.a. get "Eleanor Rigbied") are Frederick Dent and Arthur Irving. The latter one despite his vast fortune seems like a low-profile billionaire.

 

Since all of your picks are 70+ years old, you will get a base score of 4-7 points per hit. Unique picks (UP) or Drop 40 picks (D40) would of course help increasing your total. It's too early to tell yet, but I would estimate that you could have between 2-3 UP in there somewhere. As for D40 bonuses, you may have 3-4 candidates.

 

Looking at the actualy names, I would consider Jack Nicholson to be among the unlikeliest to pass away this year. Queen Sofia, Nick Nolte and Julie Goodyear fall into the same category in my opinion. Conversely, Liz Dawn and Mary Wilson are probably among the likeliest hits for you in blueberry's debut season. The others could go either way, because many of them are indeed old and their health statuses may vary.

 

Humans age biologically at different rates, meaning that a 90-year old might have a healthier body with functioning internal organs than, say, a 70-year old. I think that, statistically, gambling on a set of group of old people to die within a year would give a hit rate of around 1/4 or even 1/3. Excluding medical insight and knowledge, that is.

 

So, I would estimate that you could anticipate approximately 4-6 hits, which would be a decent result. Point-wise, I don't know because I don't know who your joker is.

[gcreptile 10,963]

So I've calculated 142,13 pts (updated!) for The Love Boat this year, out of 226 possible.

Shameless: 105,19 out of 262 (!) pts possible (updated!)

B-Team: 91,31 for The B-Team out of 198pts possible (updated!)

 

The best possible team I could have fielded, according to my longlist would go on to score 159,49pts (updated!),

The highest scoring person I didn't pick (bar the terrorists) was Jacques Chirac (6,72pts), followed by Joseph Kony (5,85pts) and Marieke Vervoort (5,60pts unnatural death!).

 

Calculations for other teams: (2016/01/03) Updated with changes to the uniqueness chance (Hvorostovsky, DJ Casper more likely unique; several people not unique after all), Drop 40 chance uptick for Wetton

DQSP: 134,04 (updated with increased Drop 40 chance for Wetton)

TLE: 121,635 (Updated!)

TJS: 125,3 (Updated!)

Heading Nowhere: 115,46 (updated!)

Pan Breed: 133,338

Bert Trautmann: 129,93 (updated!)

Going Underground: 109,03 (updated!)

Cancel My Appointments: 86,63

JoeyRuss: 131,54 (updated!)

RadGuy: 128,35 (updated)

Dead as a Doornail: 109,45 (new!)

Still Life: 123,35 (Van Zandfliet not unique, higher Drop 40 chance for Wetton)

Blueberry Crumble: 21 + joker bonus + 0,90 (Nigel Lawson) = 21,90 + joker bonus

Gooseberry Crumble: 25,52 + joker bonus + 1,80 (Lord Snowdon) = 27,32 + joker bonus

Apricot Crumble: 35,68 + joker bonus + 1,05 (Geoffrey Boycott) = 36,73 + joker bonus

Cancerous Hatred: 108,10 (updated!)

Shaun of The Dead 69: 89,48

Garn2: 124,26

I'm sorry for your trouble: 115,876

Here's who you could have won: 82,357

drol: 120 (new!)

DDP Tofoa: 98,817

MPFC: 96,0045

 

For better oversight....the table...

1. The Love Boat 142,13 (updated - please don't forget, I'm obviously relatively more confident in my own picks, so you may well watch me fail, if my unique picks aren't unique or if, say, Mao Kobayashi doesn't obit)

2. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals 134,04 (updated!)

3. Pan Breed 133,338 (updated!)

4. Day in the Death 131,54 (updated!)

5. Bert Trautmann 129,93 (updated!)

6. To Kill A Gabor Sister 128,35 (Updated! This score decreased by a bit more than the others - 3pts - because I had to nullify several uniqueness bonus points)

7. Thomas Jefferson Survives 125,3 (updated!)

8. Garn2: 124,26 (new)

9. Still Life 123,35 (updated!)

10. The Living End - 121,635 (updated!)

11. Drol - 120,00 (new!)

12. I'm sorry for your trouble 115,876 (new!)

13. Heading Nowhere 115,46 (updated! I had a fairly high chance of Emma Houlston being unique in my list, I had to change that.)

[Joey Russ 7,220]

I actually figure around the same, because I'm also including people who'll probably obit but are still considered risky obits if you know what I mean. Least likely hits for me are Brady (though the gut instinct could be right), Davies, and Stefansson. Oh, and the Aspin guy if he shows up to have died before the new year. Just my observation of course.

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,337]

 

Here's my three deadpool teams

TEAM BLUEBERRY CRUMBLE

1) Thomas Keneally (author of Schiendlers ark -inspiration for Oscar glorious film Schiendlers list)

2) Mary Wilson (widow of ex PM Harold Wilson)

3) James Lovelock (gaia theory)

4) Dorothy Malone

5) Julie Goodyear

6) Rosamunde Pilcher (British author)

7) Sidney Poitier

8) Hans Rausing SNR (Swedish billionaire inherited tetrapak empire)

9) Poul Schuter (former pm of Denmark)

10) Jack Nicholson

11) Hubert De Givenchy (fashion designer)

12) Frederick B Dent (US Secretary of commerce under Nixon Ford)

13) Arthur Irving (Canadian billionaire of the Irving Group)

14) Nick Nolte (us actor)

15) Barbara Bush

16) Queen Sofia of Spain

17) Nigel Lawson

18) Estelle Parsons (us actress)

19) Liz Dawn

20) Cleo Laine

 

Like I promised you, I'll begin with your blueberry team.

 

First off, the majority of the people here seem to be distinguished within their own fields and would likely get a qualified obituary (QA). The ones who might risk ending up on the "list of the lost" (a.k.a. get "Eleanor Rigbied") are Frederick Dent and Arthur Irving. The latter one despite his vast fortune seems like a low-profile billionaire.

 

Since all of your picks are 70+ years old, you will get a base score of 4-7 points per hit. Unique picks (UP) or Drop 40 picks (D40) would of course help increasing your total. It's too early to tell yet, but I would estimate that you could have between 2-3 UP in there somewhere. As for D40 bonuses, you may have 3-4 candidates.

 

Looking at the actualy names, I would consider Jack Nicholson to be among the unlikeliest do pass away this year. Queen Sofia, Nick Nolte and Julie Goodyear fall into the same category in my opinion. Conversely, Liz Dawn and Mary Wilson are probably among the likeliest hits for you in blueberry's debut season. The others could go either way, because many of them are indeed old and their health statuses may vary.

 

Humans age biologically at different rates, meaning that a 90-year old might have a healthier body with functioning internal organs than, say, a 70-year old. I think that, statistically, gambling on a set of group of old people to die within a year would give a hit rate of around 1/4 or even 1/3. Excluding medical insight and knowledge, that is.

 

So, I would estimate that you could anticipate approximately 4-6 hits, which is a decent result. Point-wise, I don't know because I don't know who your joker is.

Thank you for your thoughtful quality analysis.

 

My joker is always at the top of the list so in this case it's Thomas Kennally.

 

I think it will be in mid January when we all know whether our picks our unique?

 

Just out of curiosity which do you think are my likely unique picks please?

 

What impressed me so much with your list is your clear strength for finding unique picks. Finding people who are unique picks but likely to obit to the extent I believe you have is a very tricky thing to pull off. I'd say that at least half of your picks are unique if not more.

Like me you go for a good variety of people and don't just concentrate on people from the same field.

I think Dean Stockwell is probably your weakest pick and strikes me as a 2018 name and I think the Swedish princess is probably one of your strongest picks imo.

 

 

When you have the time would you mind comparing and contrasting the different crumbles and telling me which you think is my strongest time and once you tell me I will then tell you which I think is my strongest team and my weakest.

 

It would be interesting to see if we agree!

 

Many Thanks

[JiroemonKimura 95]

My very accurate analysis:

 

Cancerous Hatred 2

100%:

Lakovic (obit questionable)

Downie

Christie

Bracknell

Meads

 

>90%:

Wetton

Skellern

Gilbert

Snuka (assuming his lawyer is being legit)

DiMasi (obit questionable)

 

75%:

Vervoort

Boles

Bain

St. John

Stefansson

Stiles

 

50%:

Bradley

McEniff

 

Situation unclear, probably likely:

Romero

Hallenga

[Sir Creep 7,070]

Lakovic has a huge obit problem (and I have him), but you know who has a bigger obit problem? The living.

A guy at his age guaranteed to die is not one to eschew due to an improbable obit IMHO. Maybe the sob story him leaving a young kid behind will push him over the obit hurdle, I give it 20%.

SirC

[msc 18,436]

Lakovic is a risk but I figure if you're going for a shaky obit, you might as well take the punt with someone worth 10 or more points, rather than some obscure famous old guy.

[Death Impends 7,955]

I feel my chances will likely be decided by the punts of Wayne Barrett, Julia Perez, and to a point Joost (a lot of us have him, but some contenders like Spade, DDT, and CC still went long). With Perez, I think she'll die, but I know for sure her QO chances are "Indonesia mourns popular entertainer" BBC article or bust. The only reason she was seriously considered was due to that precedent of BBC coverage. I now take the risky obit stance mentioned above, that it should be on young names - that I took a risk on Chocolate Armenteros last year, but not someone like Andrew Smith, wasn't the most astute of decisions even if Chocolate did obit (as even if he was unique, he still would've been worth less than Smith).

 

Wayne Barrett was the only name I thought might be unique (Perez I thought had a 20% chance, already quashed, and the others no way), and his status as "Donald Trump's first nemesis" should make an obit very likely. He's now bedridden with lung cancer and another lung disease, though still mentally sharp. I'd guess he's 75-80% sure to die this year. Hopefully he carries the unique. Oh, Booth as well is a key differential on my end, despite being popular enough on the DDP as a whole to guarantee a Drop 40 bonus. But not that many upper echelon teams have him.

 

It'll also help if Christie and Michael make the Drop 40. I'm pretty sure Christie will - him, Downie, and Bracknell are the new Crowe, Feek, and Angelil IMO. Plus being one of only two survivors of the winning team, and a tie between him, NakaMats (who no one trusts at this point) and Joost (very popular on DDP as a whole) as the most common survivor of the 2016 top 10. (so in this case you'd actually root for Diana Rots teams to crop up, for all the skewering we give them) But as he's my joker, I'd lag behind on the offhand chance I guessed wrong. Whereas Michael is a borderline Drop 40 case but needs the points to compensate for old age, and is something of a differential.

 

There are also the names where not dying is important to my chances, Greg Gilbert the primary one. And Wetton, who I think will die, but now looks like he has an outside shot of making the Drop 40. Had I knew he'd have been this popular, I'd probably have picked him.

[Sir Creep 7,070]

I wouldn't mind having a unique with Pat Bowlen but I gotta believe in 600 teams someone has him. When his wife accepted the Super Bowl trophy last year she spoke about her husband in the PAST TENSE! I couldn't believe it. Figured he can't hang on forever but late stage Alzheimer's is tricky. I blew it forgetting Campbell but filled my Alzheimer's quota. Maybe it's better I didn't have too many of them after all. My only chance is that the majority of mine die and grab an unexpected birthday bonus or summat. I don't have uniqueness as a quality I dare say. I do feel strongly they'll drop dead though. Gotta start somewhere lol.

SC

[Sir Creep 7,070]

 

It'll also help if Christie and Michael make the Drop 40. I'm pretty sure Christie will - him, Downie, and Bracknell are the new Crowe, Feek, and Angelil IMO.

Interesting. I can't say I'm on board with the analogy. Crowe and Feek were guaranteed to die. I don't think Downie or Bracknell are going anywhere this year. I'm sure I'm in a minority.

SC

[Joey Russ 7,220]

I think Wetton is CC joker, to help you gcreptile. And Christie is definitely DI jokers. I think I like the overall diversity of jokers though. It's not like everyone bagged their joker on Feek or Crowe last year.

[Death Impends 7,955]

 

 

It'll also help if Christie and Michael make the Drop 40. I'm pretty sure Christie will - him, Downie, and Bracknell are the new Crowe, Feek, and Angelil IMO.

Interesting. I can't say I'm on board with the analogy. Crowe and Feek were guaranteed to die. I don't think Downie or Bracknell are going anywhere this year. I'm sure I'm in a minority.

SC

 

 

But even if you're right on Downie and Bracknell surviving the year, that doesn't change the fact they'll be near unanimous picks among the top 10 finishees this year. Like how Wilko, Harper, and Simon were 2014's holy trinity, even though none of them paid dividends that year.

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,337]

 

In the 2016 thread I pretty accurately predicted the score of my Main Team. This time, I predict myself to be in the 130-140 range. I'll calculate something similar this evening for others.

Edit: I have a feeling, this year's teams are riskier. I calculate scores by weighting them with probabilities. The Love Boat 2016 got 119pts out of 160-170 possible. This time 200+ pts are possible but the probability is lower.

 

So I've calculated 141,7 pts for The Love Boat this year, out of 214 possible.

92,62 for Shameless, plus some points for Jay Clark, let's say, around 100pts.

86,27 pts for The B-Team (scores for Shameless and The B-Team are not up-to-date, as I have to adjust Drop 40/unique/obit chances).

 

The best possible team I could have fielded, according to my longlist would go on to score 146,52pts, but I've decided against picking Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and against picking Lucas Kinney (and I slightly attributed some more risk to The Love Boat).

 

The highest scoring person I didn't pick (bar the terrorists) was Jacques Chirac, followed by Joseph Kony and Marieke Vervoort.

 

Watch this space, if you're interested in my calculations for other teams (not entirely unselfish, as it is a research exercise).

 

DQSP: 108,47+7,75 (Mark Sims joker bonus)+ 8,1 (Paul Briggs) + 5,34 (Laurie Brokenshire) + 5,1 (Michael Perham) = 134,76 (Paul Briggs and Jagraj Singh would now be in my main team)

TLE: 102,46 + 7,80 (al-Baghdadi joker bonus) + Steve Pollard (1,31) + Susanne Cameron-Blackie (???) + Vincent Lambert (1,96) + Les Mutrie (5,61) = 119,14 plus Anna Raccoon (which I can't figure out)

TJS: 115,06 + joker bonus + 3,83 (Wayne Barrett) = 118,89 + joker bonus =

Heading Nowhere: 113,25pts + joker bonus =

Pan Breed: 120,39+8,99 (Gord Downie joker bonus)+ 5,28 (Anna Holmlund)=134,66

Bert Trautmann: 114,22 + 7,75 (Mark Sims joker bonus) + 4,36 (Jerome Golmard) + 4,14 (Patrick Cryne) = 130,47

Going Underground: 81,39 + 7,53 (Tracy McGiffin joker bonus) + Sonny West + Leon White + Paul Madeley + Rena Salmon + Jessi Zazu =

Cancel My Appointments:

JoeyRuss: 124,18 + 8,38 (Ben Suisala joker bonus) = 132,56

RadGuy:

Dead as a Doornail:

Still Life:

 

 

(I will add teams as I encounter them and find them interesting - the single names are those I had to add to my long list, and while I didn't do the same exercise for other teams last year, it should not be terribly surprising if my team scores best - because, after all, that's why I picked the people I picked. But the new-to-me picks can shake things up.)

Love to know what you make of my crumbles!!

[RadGuy 1,614]

Let's take a look at mine.

 

Leah Bracknell: 90% chance of being fucked. Raised money for that treatment but if I remember correctly, she's using "natural" remedies meaning she'll die of her own stupidity. Plus she's on DL's cursed 14th spot.

Gay Byrne: Might have exaggerated his condition, I could see him lingering on for a few years. 35% chance of dying this year.

Errol Christie: Can't have much longer left now, but I'm not exactly aware of how bad his condition is. If he's made it this long, maybe he's on the mend - OTOH, that's what I thought about Crowe and he died. 40%.

Sara Coward: In hospice or summat, terminally ill and such, the news reports from a month ago sounded like she's in her final days. 95%.

Gord Downie: Fucked by the looks of it. Passes life expectancy in March if I remember correctly. 99%.

Greg Gilbert: Stage 4 bowel cancer spread to lungs. Can't receive regular treatment so needs to raise money for some weird ass stuff. 99%.

Kris Hallenga: Hasn't been much news on her I think. One of those filler, defensive, type choices. 25% might be a conservative estimate.

Sara Hankins: Wasn't supposed to see Christmas. 100% dead cert. The only problem is will she obit.

Heidi Loughlin: Been sick for a while, cancer incurable. Don't know enough on her condition so I will say 90%.

Lisa Magill: Doesn't look that bad in recent photos, but her blog suggests she is in really bad health. 80% maybe.

Tracy McGiffin: Articles suggest she is fucked. 99%.

King Michael I of Romania: 95 years old, recently widowed, had cancer for over a year. No news on his health, but a Jimmy Carter-like recovery is unlikely as he was too ill to go to his wife's funeral in August. 99%.

Simon Ricketts: Forgot about his condition, tbh, but if I remember correctly the prognosis seems bleak. 90%?

Rena Salmon: Probably a Lynne Stewart "lying evil bitch" situation, but I stuck her in because I figured few would have her. 20%.

Mark Sims: Mom concerned he wouldn't make the night... a month ago. This joker of mine looks like an 100% dead cert.

Peter Skellern: His dying wish of being ordained as a priest was fulfilled back in October. So he's either fucked or a liar who wants to get into little boys' tiny buttholes. 80% I guess.

Jimmy Snuka: Life expectancy till June. But he's on trial for something, so like Rena Salmon and dropped Lynne Stewart, prolly a liar. 50%.

Valery Spiridonov: If he actually goes through with the operation, he's fucked. Head transplant? Hell naw that ain't gon' be successful. But he might pussy out of it. 75%.

Stefan Karl Stefansson: No clue. Could be a Joost-style lingering on case, could be fucked. 50%.

Steve Sumner: Recently set a goal of "life". Probably fucked, but not much news. 80%.

[gcreptile 10,963]

 

 

In the 2016 thread I pretty accurately predicted the score of my Main Team. This time, I predict myself to be in the 130-140 range. I'll calculate something similar this evening for others.

Edit: I have a feeling, this year's teams are riskier. I calculate scores by weighting them with probabilities. The Love Boat 2016 got 119pts out of 160-170 possible. This time 200+ pts are possible but the probability is lower.

So I've calculated 141,7 pts for The Love Boat this year, out of 214 possible.

92,62 for Shameless, plus some points for Jay Clark, let's say, around 100pts.

86,27 pts for The B-Team (scores for Shameless and The B-Team are not up-to-date, as I have to adjust Drop 40/unique/obit chances).

 

The best possible team I could have fielded, according to my longlist would go on to score 146,52pts, but I've decided against picking Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and against picking Lucas Kinney (and I slightly attributed some more risk to The Love Boat).

 

The highest scoring person I didn't pick (bar the terrorists) was Jacques Chirac, followed by Joseph Kony and Marieke Vervoort.

 

Watch this space, if you're interested in my calculations for other teams (not entirely unselfish, as it is a research exercise).

 

DQSP: 108,47+7,75 (Mark Sims joker bonus)+ 8,1 (Paul Briggs) + 5,34 (Laurie Brokenshire) + 5,1 (Michael Perham) = 134,76 (Paul Briggs and Jagraj Singh would now be in my main team)

TLE: 102,46 + 7,80 (al-Baghdadi joker bonus) + Steve Pollard (1,31) + Susanne Cameron-Blackie (???) + Vincent Lambert (1,96) + Les Mutrie (5,61) = 119,14 plus Anna Raccoon (which I can't figure out)

TJS: 115,06 + joker bonus + 3,83 (Wayne Barrett) = 118,89 + joker bonus =

Heading Nowhere: 113,25pts + joker bonus =

Pan Breed: 120,39+8,99 (Gord Downie joker bonus)+ 5,28 (Anna Holmlund)=134,66

Bert Trautmann: 114,22 + 7,75 (Mark Sims joker bonus) + 4,36 (Jerome Golmard) + 4,14 (Patrick Cryne) = 130,47

Going Underground: 81,39 + 7,53 (Tracy McGiffin joker bonus) + Sonny West + Leon White + Paul Madeley + Rena Salmon + Jessi Zazu =

Cancel My Appointments:

JoeyRuss: 124,18 + 8,38 (Ben Suisala joker bonus) = 132,56

RadGuy:

Dead as a Doornail:

Still Life:

 

 

(I will add teams as I encounter them and find them interesting - the single names are those I had to add to my long list, and while I didn't do the same exercise for other teams last year, it should not be terribly surprising if my team scores best - because, after all, that's why I picked the people I picked. But the new-to-me picks can shake things up.)

Love to know what you make of my crumbles!!

 

I'll do it tomorrow, I promise! You have lots of different and new (to me) names, and I'm afraid I might not judge them right today.

[msc 18,436]

I wouldn't mind having a unique with Pat Bowlen but I gotta believe in 600 teams someone has him. When his wife accepted the Super Bowl trophy last year she spoke about her husband in the PAST TENSE! I couldn't believe it. Figured he can't hang on forever but late stage Alzheimer's is tricky. I blew it forgetting Campbell but filled my Alzheimer's quota. Maybe it's better I didn't have too many of them after all. My only chance is that the majority of mine die and grab an unexpected birthday bonus or summat. I don't have uniqueness as a quality I dare say. I do feel strongly they'll drop dead though. Gotta start somewhere lol.

SC

 

If it helps - probably not - Bowlen was on my longlist but axed early on, because those late stage Alzheimer's are just too tricky to call.

 

I think Wetton is CC joker, to help you gcreptile. And Christie is definitely DI jokers. I think I like the overall diversity of jokers though. It's not like everyone bagged their joker on Feek or Crowe last year.

 

When it came to jokers, the Drop 40 bonus changed my thinking. Why risk a 24 point under-30 for the off chance they're unique, when you can pick a popular 40-50 year old and get as many or more points. Then it came down the likeliest person on my team to die who had any shot of being on the Drop 40.