Derby Dead Pool 2017

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,205]

 

 

 

 

 

In the 2016 thread I pretty accurately predicted the score of my Main Team. This time, I predict myself to be in the 130-140 range. I'll calculate something similar this evening for others.

Edit: I have a feeling, this year's teams are riskier. I calculate scores by weighting them with probabilities. The Love Boat 2016 got 119pts out of 160-170 possible. This time 200+ pts are possible but the probability is lower.

 

So I've calculated 141,7 pts for The Love Boat this year, out of 214 possible.

92,62 for Shameless, plus some points for Jay Clark, let's say, around 100pts.

86,27 pts for The B-Team (scores for Shameless and The B-Team are not up-to-date, as I have to adjust Drop 40/unique/obit chances).

 

The best possible team I could have fielded, according to my longlist would go on to score 146,52pts, but I've decided against picking Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and against picking Lucas Kinney (and I slightly attributed some more risk to The Love Boat).

 

The highest scoring person I didn't pick (bar the terrorists) was Jacques Chirac, followed by Joseph Kony and Marieke Vervoort.

 

Watch this space, if you're interested in my calculations for other teams (not entirely unselfish, as it is a research exercise).

 

DQSP: 108,47+7,75 (Mark Sims joker bonus)+ 8,1 (Paul Briggs) + 5,34 (Laurie Brokenshire) + 5,1 (Michael Perham) = 134,76 (Paul Briggs and Jagraj Singh would now be in my main team)

TLE: 102,46 + 7,80 (al-Baghdadi joker bonus) + Steve Pollard (1,31) + Susanne Cameron-Blackie (???) + Vincent Lambert (1,96) + Les Mutrie (5,61) = 119,14 plus Anna Raccoon (which I can't figure out)

TJS: 115,06 + joker bonus + 3,83 (Wayne Barrett) = 118,89 + joker bonus =

Heading Nowhere: 113,25pts + joker bonus =

Pan Breed: 120,39+8,99 (Gord Downie joker bonus)+ 5,28 (Anna Holmlund)=134,66

Bert Trautmann: 114,22 + 7,75 (Mark Sims joker bonus) + 4,36 (Jerome Golmard) + 4,14 (Patrick Cryne) = 130,47

Going Underground: 81,39 + 7,53 (Tracy McGiffin joker bonus) + Sonny West + Leon White + Paul Madeley + Rena Salmon + Jessi Zazu =

Cancel My Appointments:

JoeyRuss: 124,18 + 8,38 (Ben Suisala joker bonus) = 132,56

RadGuy:

Dead as a Doornail:

Still Life:

 

 

(I will add teams as I encounter them and find them interesting - the single names are those I had to add to my long list, and while I didn't do the same exercise for other teams last year, it should not be terribly surprising if my team scores best - because, after all, that's why I picked the people I picked. But the new-to-me picks can shake things up.)

Love to know what you make of my crumbles!!

I'll do it tomorrow, I promise! You have lots of different and new (to me) names, and I'm afraid I might not judge them right today.

Please do mine, I have my team in my signature and my own personal analysis on this page.

Done, and done.

 

Gooseberry Crumble, while your teams may not score highest, I think they are very classy teams, full of interesting stories. None of those "cancer-celebrities". And it looks as if two of your teams will score higher than me in my first year. Also, I couldn't check all the new people very thoroughly. Sometimes you don't read any news about new people, are they just content to be left alone, or is health the reason? It's often hard to tell. So if you know these people better than me (surely true for UK authors and scandinavian politicians), and you know their half-secret health issues, your score will be higher than what I have calculated.

 

If age is the reason someone was picked, I give a probability according to the fatality risk of a US social security recipient (statistics are available online). There is some adjustment if a person has heart troubles, is retired, looks bad, or gives interviews and the like... An 85 year old person basically has about a 15% of dying in the next 12 months, statistically. So it's 6 base points (for octogenarians) * 0,15 = 0,9. This is then multiplied with the chance of obiting. The base points get multiplied by the chance of being a unique hit, a Drop 40 pick, or the likelihood of an unnatural death.

 

So, a unique 85-year old with 90% chance of obiting (say, some classical musician) but no chance of Drop 40 or unnatural death and no extraordinary health problems gets (6+1*3)*0,15*0,9= 1,215

Some stage IV lung cancer patient (say, 80% of dying this year), say 56 years old, 50% obit chance, no chance of being unique or Drop 40 gets 9*0,8*0,5= 3,6

 

So, the scoring system favours cancer celebrities, but then what can you do...

 

Edit: Ok, enough deadpooling for now, I hardly got anything done at home in the past days...

Thank you! I've always liked to think I do most things with a touch of class!!

 

But seriously thank you -I'm trying to balance the need for a decent varied and interesting team (IE a good mix of people with no loading of people famous just for being ill as a means to win) and being able to score quite well. If I where to perform superwell unexpectedly that would be very good too but I'm not so competitive that I'd submit a list that wasn't "classy" if that makes sense.

[Joey Russ 7,119]

I know you still need to update some things, but the fact that I'm even close to touching Spade's territory according to your calculations gives me a lot of hope for my time deadpooling ever. I think my most important gambit has to be the Ian Brady gambit. He made the final cut due to a gut feeling I have, probably similar to CC gut feeling for Douglas and DI gut feeling for Sallis. Only time will tell if it pays off.

[msc 17,756]

Well, look at the logistics: Christie, Coward, Downie, Gilbert, McGiffin, Meads, Ricketts, Sim, Skellern, Suisala will probably die. That's 104 points to aim for off the bat, which leaves potential in Joost, Wetton, Al-Baghdadi, Aspin, Booth, Campbell as folk who could easily die in 2017. (156)

 

Of course, if they do, I'd be about 30 points behind you with Nevin/Zandvliet/Elias/Bracknell yet unaccounted for, of course...

[themaninblack 2,112]

I know you still need to update some things, but the fact that I'm even close to touching Spade's territory according to your calculations gives me a lot of hope for my time deadpooling ever. I think my most important gambit has to be the Ian Brady gambit. He made the final cut due to a gut feeling I have, probably similar to CC gut feeling for Douglas and DI gut feeling for Sallis. Only time will tell if it pays off.

 

Well, if you're telling the truth about your age on your profile, you would be the youngest ever winner by a considerable margin. Indeed you are younger than the age limit we have for celeb choices!

[msc 17,756]

Fifteen??? Bloody hell, not long off having posters on here young enough to be my kids...

 

I'm just about getting used to the idea that at the next World Cup there will be players born this century.

[Joey Russ 7,119]

Fifteen??? Bloody hell, not long off having posters on here young enough to be my kids...

 

I'm just about getting used to the idea that at the next World Cup there will be players born this century.

Still not the youngest (known) one on this site though. I'm older than RadGuy by about 3 months

[msc 17,756]

I see. I remember when I started posted on internet forums, about that age. All of that was thankfully lost in the Geocities/Angelfire purges of 2009/2010.

[Toast 14,824]

All of that was thankfully lost in the Geocities/Angelfire purges of 2009/2010.

 

That sounds like it could make a good TV series.

[Sir Creep 7,011]

My very accurate analysis:

 

Cancerous Hatred 2

 

DiMasi (obit questionable)

 

DiMasi at 90% !!???!???

Forget the questionable obit--I'll bet you a one year total DL banishment (and throw in a can of coffee) that he's alive for New Years 2019. He has less than a zero percent chance of dying.

Well ok 1%.

SC

[Sir Creep 7,011]

Y'all keep alluding to each other's picks, in particular Spade's. Where the hell are they posted? Spade never posted his so you must be clairvoyant.

SC

[Sir Creep 7,011]

I enjoyed RadGuy's self analysis, so here goes:

 

Sir Creep - Cancel My Appointments

 

Patrick Bowlen - late stage Alzheimer's etc, 79 I think, couldn't be in attendance when his Denver Broncos won the Suoer Bowl last year, his wife referred to him in the past tense when accepting the trophy. Alzheimer's are always a tough call but his wife knows: 60%

 

Colin Butts - obit risky, death not so much. 80%

 

Rico Constantino - maybe I shoulda went with Rico as my joker -- is he the dirty little secret I had hoped Rayya would be? I've read nothing about him elsewhere. His social media suggests he's in a lot of trouble. 80%

 

Errol Christie - ive been riding another young black man's ass (that didn't come out right) with Stage 4 lung cancer in Wesley Pipes, who seems to have overcome. I've never seen Pipes and Christie at the same place at the same time, just sayin. Hmmm. 95%

 

Rayya Elias (Joker) - A fellow Detroiter! Dyke fringe of the famous (yeah I said it) oddly a guaranteed obit. But will she die? 89%

 

Scott Hamilton - My ex wife's grandmother is the only person I've heard of that fought off cancer three times, but she was in her 70s/80s, not her 50's! Can an ex athlete fend off C3 for 400 days? I'm guessing no. 90%

 

Mo Haque - don't know anything about him other than crowdfunding cancer treatment. Sounds experimental but we shall see. I figured very few would have Mo so I might cash in Mo Money. Obit a lock. 50%

 

Sasha Lokovic - 100% and will be leaving a fair number of folks pleading for an obit I doubt will come. Then again Andrew Smith got an easy obit and not sure how a college basketball player is obit worthy to UK publications and an NHLer wouldn't be.

 

Tracy McGiffin - 100/100% easy points you should be embarrassed if she's not on your team. This was my secret Joker until Joey-come-blow-your-horn-Russ became the town cryer.

 

Sir Colin Meads - I only know what y'all have posted. Seems a sure death. 85%

 

Vincent Mullins - I've been told he is dead so my sub PM Patrick John steps in and he's been hospitalized for heart conditions and diabetes, amputating a leg last year. But he may skate through. 35%

 

Richard Overton - fucker lived last year. Now at 110 his points are useless but I chose him out of spite and to teach him a lesson. No crime in a couple low hanging fruit. 97%

 

Nabeel Qureshi - ahh what the hell. Let's see how better he gets. Figured people would pass on him and he's a young'in. Worth a punt.

 

Simon Ricketts - Give me my points please.

 

Peter Skellern - Give me my points please

 

Mario Soares - Give me my points please

 

Valeri Spiridinov - everyone makes it sound like if he doesn't chop his head off he's good to go. He's chopping his head off cuz his body is useless. He could die from natural causes before the surgery. That said I don't think any of it will happen but he's like 30 so you have to cross your fingers. 25% risk 1000% reward

 

John Wetton - unlike everyone else I'm not so sure he's a 2017 casualty. 65%

 

Mike IX Williams - another guy I shoulda made my Joker. He may meet his gofundme goal for treatment of cancer etc. And he's young. I had to take a chance.

 

Paul Van Zandvliet - 90%

 

Sub: PM Patrick John -'see above

SirC

[CaptainChorizo 1,903]

The thing about Rico Constantino is he was a low card wrestler in WWE for like 2 years,even if he is a dead cert he is iffy for an obit. It's basically dependent on if the guy who does The Sun obits was watching WWE during the Billy & Chuck fued where Rico was the hairdresser.

[msc 17,756]

Y'all keep alluding to each other's picks, in particular Spade's. Where the hell are they posted? Spade never posted his so you must be clairvoyant.

SC

 

Being Scottish - we all have Second Sight, you know - I'm going to deduce that Spade has Mark Sims as his joker, has a bunch of folk in common with myself (if I dare say so, ego wise), and a terminally ill British Navy Chief and extremist (two different people there!) who are likely to bring in 21 points no one else really thought of.

 

I was aided by this post.

 

I'll review Sir Creep's team too:

 

Pat Bowlen: Really difficult to call late Alzhiemers - look at those trying to go for Glen Campbell and the like over the years. Whereas I knew a chap who went within months of diagnosis! Not like cancer when you can have a rough guide. Bowlen's certainly sick enough, he'll obit, but will he die...

 

Colin Butts - On my team, a risky obit, but docs gave him 18 months tops in Jan/Feb 2016, so likely to die this year, even if he's happily tweeting away right now.

 

Rico - I knew about him, you'll be shocked to know, massive pro-wrestling fan that I am. However, pro-wrestlers are known to exaggerate their health issues - it's usually the ones who don't who just pass away out of the spotlight, no one had an inkling about Doug Furnas's years of trouble till the obits - but more of an issue, I don't think he'll get an obit based on one tag title run and a spot in the 2004 Rumble match. I know he pinned Ric Flair once, but I'm probably the only person in the world who remembers that, including Flair and Rico. Also, most of our info comes from a known bullshitter (Kenny . Risky pick.

 

Errol Christie - Given a year due to metastatic lung cancer sometime before the Euros. A lock.

 

Rayya Elias - Of course she's a guaranteed obit. Imagine you're the Daily Mail editor for a minute. Story about an immigrant, writer, and the God loving partner who dumps her husband for her best friend - female - who is dying of liver and pancreatic cancer. Immigration, God, lesbianism, cancer - it's like their dream story. Also, that combination = lock.

 

Scott Hamilton - Isn't it a benign brain tumour? That's what I read. You can have tonnes of those, and until they go malignant....

 

Mo Haque - A risky obit given his news was covered by local, not national.

 

Sasha Lakovic - Certain to die, on my team too, but I suspect we're hoping for a quiet news week re Qualifying Obits. I've watched NHL on here (Calgary Flames losing the Cup final in...2004ish) but it's never made anything to the same traction that the American football or basketball has.

 

Tracy McGiffin - Yeah, she'll die and she'll obit. PS In fairness, it was Spade that revealed her when I think Rad Guy was making quiet allusions to her, Joey only named her once Spade had (and Spade had his own mega points bankers on hand).

 

Sir Colin Meads - 80 year old with pancreatic cancer, you know the score here.

 

Vincent Mullins - Jumped the gun, somewhat.

 

 

 

Richard Overton - Really old guy you like. Might not die, might not obit and certainly not worth many points.

 

Nabeel Qureshi - Was on my team till the whole "God cured me" - you can look at it two ways, he's either deluded or frauding. After the Ryan Buell stuff, I went for fraud. If he does think God cured him though, he's fucked.

 

Simon Ricketts/Peter Skellern/Mario Soares - Will all die.

 

Valeri Spiridinov - He'll most likely die this year. I just had one of those last minute "don't pick him" gut feelings which worked so well last year for Peter Esterhazy in 2016.

 

John Wetton - Never even crossed my mind. Now he's a likely obit, a likely death and a likely Drop 40 bonus - never saw most of that coming.

 

Mike WIlliams/PM Patrick John - Sick enough but risky obits imo.

 

Paul Van Zandvliet - Stage 4 glioblastoma with secondary kidney/liver cancer since 2015. Fucked.

 

[Deathray 2,933]

Seen as we're team reviewing;

 

Leah Bracknell (Emmerdale actor) [Joker] Pretty high chance of dying.

Kenny Sansom (football) - one of the no means a certainty but still young and self-destructive enough for a punt

Carol Channing (no idea, saw her on DL forums) - as you can see no though was put into this

Luke Halpin (actor) - should go this year if not next.

Prunella Scales (actress and canal enthusiast) - not many points but a probability.

Paul McCartney (rock god) - not much in the way of ground from this one

Gerald Kaufman (doddery old MP) - he's reportedly sevrerely illl and hasn't appeared in parliament for yonks.

Marieke Vervoot (paralympian) - pretty high chance of going

Stefan Karl Stefansonn (lazy town) - pretty high chance of going

Liz Dawn (Vera from Corrie) - one of these lingering will die soon picks with ill health.

Barry Bennell (scum of the earth) - reasonably high suicide risk

Robert Mugabe (incompetent dictator) - not a high scorer, just old.

Stan Lee (comic book genius) - another just old pick

Billy Graham (lunatic, godbotherer) - a Liz dawn lingering ill health and old age pick.

Clive James (writes a lot without saying anything) - should die this year, but he's taking longer than expected about it.

Jimmy Carter (mediocre American ruler) - ill health reported and not given clean bill so hope-casting here

George H.W Bush (atrocious American ruler) - see above. Looked extremely unwell in photos earlier this year

Prince Philip (part time racist, part time walkabout master) - not much worth, no ill health. But he's ancient and my favourite pick.

Queen Elizabeth (Britain's biggest benefit claimant) - those ill health rumours/

Wilie Thorne (gambler and ball mover man) - Barry Bennel type high suicide risk.

 

The low-hanging fruit has generally been avoided this year, mainly due to lack of research.

[Spade_Cooley 9,019]

Looking at a few of the more Shameless-y picks this year on my line-up:

 

L!sa M@gill hasn't made any social media posts since January 1st, and there's a lot of concerned fans on her Facebook page desperate for updates

P@ul Br!ggs: Removal of CANH (clinically assisted nutrition and hydration) should lead to death within a month in most patients, so if he was moved to palliative care between Christmas and New Year as was reported, we should be hearing news of his death around Burns' Night.

M@rk S!ms: Could go tomorrow, could go December 31st. Can't see him making spring though.

J@y Cl@rk: I actually find it too depressing to go on his Facebook and check his condition due to all the pictures of his son, so his death will have to come as a surprise to me.

[Deathray 2,933]

Looking at a few of the more Shameless-y picks this year on my line-up:

 

L!sa M@gill hasn't made any social media posts since January 1st, and there's a lot of concerned fans on her Facebook page desperate for updates

P@ul Br!ggs: Removal of CANH (clinically assisted nutrition and hydration) should lead to death within a month in most patients, so if he was moved to palliative care between Christmas and New Year as was reported, we should be hearing news of his death around Burns' Night.

M@rk S!ms: Could go tomorrow, could go December 31st. Can't see him making spring though.

J@y Cl@rk: I actually find it too depressing to go on his Facebook and check his condition due to all the pictures of his son, so his death will have to come as a surprise to me.

 

Have you tried entering one of the quite frankly shameless lists like your normal main team alongside a more classy team that avoids these picks, to see if you could replicate the same scoring with actual celebrities?

[Spade_Cooley 9,019]

 

Looking at a few of the more Shameless-y picks this year on my line-up:

 

L!sa M@gill hasn't made any social media posts since January 1st, and there's a lot of concerned fans on her Facebook page desperate for updates

P@ul Br!ggs: Removal of CANH (clinically assisted nutrition and hydration) should lead to death within a month in most patients, so if he was moved to palliative care between Christmas and New Year as was reported, we should be hearing news of his death around Burns' Night.

M@rk S!ms: Could go tomorrow, could go December 31st. Can't see him making spring though.

J@y Cl@rk: I actually find it too depressing to go on his Facebook and check his condition due to all the pictures of his son, so his death will have to come as a surprise to me.

 

Have you tried entering one of the quite frankly shameless lists like your normal main team alongside a more classy team that avoids these picks, to see if you could replicate the same scoring with actual celebrities?

 

 

Click here for the answer

[Joey Russ 7,119]

I think you have to have a few shameless type picks in order to do well. I got Aspin, Loughlin, and Suisala on my team (and you can say McGiffin, though she's more fringes of fame type person).

 

 

EDIT: Oh, and Mark Sims of course. How could I forget?

[drol 10,043]

Terminally ill are allowed and so it's legit to pick them. On the other hand, I think there is no fun at all and no surprise in picking fathers who want to spend their last Christmas with their children or police officers who have severe accidents. These people are not famous (not even Traci McGiffin. who the hell is she?) and getting a compassionate Dailymail obit does not make them famous. Rules should be rewritten, allowing players to include only famous people (exclude Fringes of Fame and Terminally Ill). But I don't blame those who pick unknown obit-guaranteed people as it is the best method to obtain a good score. I blame the rules.

 

That said, I picked Mark Sims, because sometimes the dark side of me can be quite persuasive.

[Sir Creep 7,011]

Terminally ill are allowed and so it's legit to pick them. On the other hand, I think there is no fun at all and no surprise in picking fathers who want to spend their last Christmas with their children or police officers who have severe accidents. These people are not famous (not even Traci McGiffin. who the hell is she?) and getting a compassionate Dailymail obit does not make them famous. Rules should be rewritten, allowing players to include only famous people (exclude Fringes of Fame and Terminally Ill). But I don't blame those who pick unknown obit-guaranteed people as it is the best method to obtain a good score. I blame the rules.

 

That said, I picked Mark Sims, because sometimes the dark side of me can be quite persuasive.

But the obits are NOT guaranteed, and as I've discovered neither are their deaths (I'm looking at YOU Aimee Willett). And it's almost impossible to get an update (which leads to possible lack of obit). I wish the Shameless teams well but this year I opted for as low a hanging fruit I could of folks who were at least slightly 'someone'. I'll grant you McGiffin but again she's a sister of someone at least. And my point about her being a joker in early November I think was cuz I saw info on her a good week before anyone around here (apologies if it was Spade) mentioned her. Oh I knew it would happen but I was dreaming my dreamy little dreams.

SC

[Going Underground 69]

I never get any of my picks off here and McGiffens sister is all over the internet when you do a basic 'Deadpoolers' google search.

 

Anyone claiming they are the main reason people picked her are deluded.

 

Filling your team with people who you see mentioned on this site will definitely get you more points but there is no fun in that whatsoever IMO.

[Predictor 1,007]

 

 

Thank you for your thoughtful quality analysis.

 

My joker is always at the top of the list so in this case it's Thomas Kennally.

I think it will be in mid January when we all know whether our picks our unique?

Just out of curiosity which do you think are my likely unique picks please?

What impressed me so much with your list is your clear strength for finding unique picks. Finding people who are unique picks but likely to obit to the extent I believe you have is a very tricky thing to pull off. I'd say that at least half of your picks are unique if not more.

Like me you go for a good variety of people and don't just concentrate on people from the same field.

I think Dean Stockwell is probably your weakest pick and strikes me as a 2018 name and I think the Swedish princess is probably one of your strongest picks imo.

When you have the time would you mind comparing and contrasting the different crumbles and telling me which you think is my strongest time and once you tell me I will then tell you which I think is my strongest team and my weakest.

It would be interesting to see if we agree!

Many Thanks

Yes, mid-January is usually when the updated DDP site is up. The ones I'm guessing could be UPs are Poul Schlüter, Arthur Irving, Hubert de Givenchy and Frederick Dent. Your joker Thomas Keneally, and Hans Rausing also stand a chance. But the thing is that many theme teams simply choose certain names to fill the empty spots. Thus, it's tricky to predict beforehand.

 

So, for instance, team A might be doing an author-themed team and looks for authors that are simply old if there aren't enough ill authors to go around. Team B has inside knowledge that one of the old authors picked by A also is ill (and not just old). In this case, B would not be rewarded with a unique bonus because A needed a full team.

 

Dean Stockwell may seem like a bit too early selection, but I know some more updated information that makes me fairly sure that he's a goner this year. Time will tell. Regarding people from different fields, while that shouldn't be a goal in itself, I do have to stop myself from picking too many people of the same occupation if it's a main team I'm doing. Right now, I have everything from a murderer, a nazi, and a porn star to a drug mule and a Micronesian ruler!

 

Having looked at all three crumbles, I believe that your apricot team will do best. I'm not super familiar with all of the names, but do believe you will score some hits with names like Hefner, Cardin, etc. Blueberry will come in close second, I think, while the team that shares your username unfortunately will do worst. I'm basing this on the fact that I regard people like Gina Lollobrigida, Gene Hackman, Pat Boone, Wilbur Smith, Prince Henrik, etc. as healthy enough to survive the year. Also, Mary Carlisle is someone who doesn't get media attention so there's an obit issue there. I do like the very active Facebook-page her family/friends have setup though.

Thank you! Interesting -I too had apricot as my selection for being the team that is likely to perform best BUT I had Gooseberry Crumble running as second behind it, perhaps even a close second with blueberry Crumble third.

 

Partially because there's a couple in my Gooseberry Crumble Team that are over 100- Goebbels press Secretary and the last Nuremberg Prosecutor which I also anticipate to be likely unique picks. Also 97 year old Dowager Duchess of Grafton.

But of course the role of the dice could surprise us all!

 

What would you say then was my most likely hit in team Gooseberry Crumble and my weakest name in team apricot Crumble please?

 

In terms of Mary Carlisle I'm kind of banking on Mail Online to save my bacon there!It's interesting how the internet has helped reinvigorate old movie stars making some of them into cult figures even silent movie stars!

 

Many Thanks again!

 

To clarify regarding Mary Carlisle, the most accurate description would be "Great Depression-era b-movie actress" rather than a silent movie star.

 

As for your question, the most likely hit for Gooseberry Crumble would be Brunhilde Pomsel (really old), Lord Snowdon (appears frail in pics) and Lee Radziwill (supposedly has Alzheimer's). Not to sound too pessimistic, but I am sure that there are several centenarian theme teams that will deprive you of a UP for Görings secretary. Benjamin Ferencz was actually picked by me last year, and he could possibly be a UP for you in this year.

 

The weakest Apricot slice is Shirley Bassey, who looks quite healthy for her age. Also, I can imagine Petula Clark becoming a DeathList mainstay in 10 years or so, kinda like the role Vera Lynn has.

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,205]

 

 

 

Thank you for your thoughtful quality analysis.

My joker is always at the top of the list so in this case it's Thomas Kennally.

I think it will be in mid January when we all know whether our picks our unique?

Just out of curiosity which do you think are my likely unique picks please?

What impressed me so much with your list is your clear strength for finding unique picks. Finding people who are unique picks but likely to obit to the extent I believe you have is a very tricky thing to pull off. I'd say that at least half of your picks are unique if not more.

Like me you go for a good variety of people and don't just concentrate on people from the same field.

I think Dean Stockwell is probably your weakest pick and strikes me as a 2018 name and I think the Swedish princess is probably one of your strongest picks imo.

When you have the time would you mind comparing and contrasting the different crumbles and telling me which you think is my strongest time and once you tell me I will then tell you which I think is my strongest team and my weakest.

It would be interesting to see if we agree!

Many Thanks

 

Yes, mid-January is usually when the updated DDP site is up. The ones I'm guessing could be UPs are Poul Schlüter, Arthur Irving, Hubert de Givenchy and Frederick Dent. Your joker Thomas Keneally, and Hans Rausing also stand a chance. But the thing is that many theme teams simply choose certain names to fill the empty spots. Thus, it's tricky to predict beforehand.

 

So, for instance, team A might be doing an author-themed team and looks for authors that are simply old if there aren't enough ill authors to go around. Team B has inside knowledge that one of the old authors picked by A also is ill (and not just old). In this case, B would not be rewarded with a unique bonus because A needed a full team.

 

Dean Stockwell may seem like a bit too early selection, but I know some more updated information that makes me fairly sure that he's a goner this year. Time will tell. Regarding people from different fields, while that shouldn't be a goal in itself, I do have to stop myself from picking too many people of the same occupation if it's a main team I'm doing. Right now, I have everything from a murderer, a nazi, and a porn star to a drug mule and a Micronesian ruler!

 

Having looked at all three crumbles, I believe that your apricot team will do best. I'm not super familiar with all of the names, but do believe you will score some hits with names like Hefner, Cardin, etc. Blueberry will come in close second, I think, while the team that shares your username unfortunately will do worst. I'm basing this on the fact that I regard people like Gina Lollobrigida, Gene Hackman, Pat Boone, Wilbur Smith, Prince Henrik, etc. as healthy enough to survive the year. Also, Mary Carlisle is someone who doesn't get media attention so there's an obit issue there. I do like the very active Facebook-page her family/friends have setup though.

Thank you! Interesting -I too had apricot as my selection for being the team that is likely to perform best BUT I had Gooseberry Crumble running as second behind it, perhaps even a close second with blueberry Crumble third.

Partially because there's a couple in my Gooseberry Crumble Team that are over 100- Goebbels press Secretary and the last Nuremberg Prosecutor which I also anticipate to be likely unique picks. Also 97 year old Dowager Duchess of Grafton.

But of course the role of the dice could surprise us all!What would you say then was my most likely hit in team Gooseberry Crumble and my weakest name in team apricot Crumble please?

In terms of Mary Carlisle I'm kind of banking on Mail Online to save my bacon there!It's interesting how the internet has helped reinvigorate old movie stars making some of them into cult figures even silent movie stars!

Many Thanks again!

To clarify regarding Mary Carlisle, the most accurate description would be "Great Depression-era b-movie actress" rather than a silent movie star.

 

As for your question, the most likely hit for Gooseberry Crumble would be Brunhilde Pomsel (really old), Lord Snowdon (appears frail in pics) and Lee Radziwill (supposedly has Alzheimer's). Not to sound too pessimistic, but I am sure that there are several centenarian theme teams that will deprive you of a UP for Görings secretary. Ferencz was actually picked by me last year, and he could possibly be a UP for you in this year.

 

The weakest Apricot slice is Shirley Bassey, who looks quite healthy for her age. Also, I can imagine Petula Clark becoming a DeathList mainstay in 10 years or so, kinda like the role Vera Lynn has.

Many Thanks for your feedback it's appreciated and interesting.

 

I read a rumour on a gay Internet forum that Shirley Bassey was allegedly privately and discreetly battling serious health issues. Obviously just unconfirmed gossip

That combined with me recalling Shirley Bassey saying in a magazine or newspaper interview years ago that her own mother died at 80 made me feel she was worth taking a chance on. I adore Shirley and want to be wrong!

 

Love all these colourful metaphorically language where using like apricot slice -I bet Shirley Bassey has never been called that before!!!!

[Deathray 2,933]

List of the Lost/Missed or a hit.

 

http://www.derbydeadpool.co.uk/deadpool2015/celebs_L.html#lepago

[The Dead Cow 620]

Here's a list of people who are listed on the Wikipedia 'Deaths in 2017' page who have received a qualifying obit.

 

January 1st

 

Tony Atkinson - Financial Times obit

Bill Marshall - Times obit

Therese MacGowan - BBC obit

Memo Morales - BBC obit

Emmanuel Niyonkuru - BBC obit

Derek Parfit - Times obit

Abis Rizvi - Telegraph obit

Brian Widlake - BBC obit

Alfonso Wong - BBC obit

 

January 2nd

 

John Berger - Guardian obit

Richard Gee - Daily Mail obit

Jean Vuarnet - BBC obit

 

January 3rd

 

Rolf Noskwith - Telegraph obit

 

January 4th

 

Sandra Landy - Telegraph obit

Georges Pretre - Daily Mail obit

Milt Schmidt - Daily Mail obit

Douglas Wass - Financial Times obit

Wayne Westner - Daily Mirror obit

 

January 5h

 

Graham Atkinson - Daily Mirror obit

Frank Murphy - BBC obit

Jill Saward - BBC obit

 

January 6th

 

Om Puri - BBC obit

Francine York - Daily Mail obit

 

January 7th

 

Mario Soares - Daily Mail obit

Nat Hentoff - Daily Mail obit

 

January 8th

 

James Mancham - Telegraph obit

Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani - BBC obit

Peter Sarstedt - BBC obit

 

January 9th

 

Zygmunt Bauman - Daily Mail obit

Roberto Cabanas - Daily Mail obit

Michael Chamberlain - BBC obit

T.K. Whitaker - BBC obit

 

January 10th

 

Buddy Greco - Telegraph obit

Roman Herzog - Daily Mail obit

Clare Hollingworth - BBC obit

Steven McDonald - Daily Mail obit

Oliver Smithies - Daily Mail obit

 

January 11th

 

Tommy Allsup - BBC obit

Tony Booth - BBC obit

Brian Fletcher - Guardian obit

Victor Lownes - BBC obit

 

January 12th

 

William Peter Blatty - Sun obit

Anthony King - BBC obit

Graham Taylor - BBC obit

 

January 13th

 

John Jacobs - BBC obit

Lord Snowdon - BBC obit

 

I'll try and keep this updated until the first DDP update, but if I've missed anyone significant then please let me know.