By -Election Bingo 2019-2024

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,337]

We pretty much posted within a nanosecond of each other @YoungWillz Sorry!

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,337]

We pretty much posted within a nanosecond of each other @YoungWillz Sorry!

[Brad252 803]

This will be a Lib Dem target; they were second in 2019, held the seat before 2015, and the swing required is less than their recent by-election successes.

 

This does also weaken Dorries' attempts to drag the by-elections out, something Tim Farron has picked upon:

 

 

[Kenny 283]

When are the MPs who have been suspended (lost the Whip) by Labour going to resign?

 

Diane Abbott MP (April 2023) - letter to Observer regarded as highly offensive to Jews, Travellers snd Irish people

Nick Brown MP (September 2022) - no reason made public

Bambos Charalambous MP (June 2023) - personal conduct complaint

Neil Coyle (February 2022) - for alleged Sinophobic remarks to a British-Chinese journalist

Jeremy Corbyn (October 2020) - reaction to report on ant-semitism in the Labour party

Geraint Davies (June 2023) – sexual harassment

Connor McGinn (December 2022) - unspecified complaint. Standing down at next election.

Christina Rees (October 2022) - allegations of bullying

Cluadia Webbe (November 2020) – convicted of harrassing a woman, appeal dismissed in May 2022

 

Rupa Huq MP was suspended by Labour for calling Kwasi Kwarteng MP (Truss's chancellor") "superficially black - https://order-order.com/2022/09/27/exclusive-labour-mp-claims-kwasi-is-superficially-black/. She regained the Whip in March 2023 after undergoing ant-racism and bias training.

[Brad252 803]

The Chris Pincher report from the Standard's Committee is due tomorrow, and reports are that a suspension of at least 10 days will result, which would allow a recall petition. Given the current political climate the profile this story had when it first emerged, a by-election resulting looks likely.

 

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1676591574635954184

 

https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1676595032109858818

[maryportfuncity 10,630]

5 hours ago, Brad252 said:

The Chris Pincher report from the Standard's Committee is due tomorrow, and reports are that a suspension of at least 10 days will result, which would allow a recall petition. Given the current political climate the profile this story had when it first emerged, a by-election resulting looks likely.

 

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1676591574635954184

 

https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1676595032109858818

 

 

Hmm, so he's an independent and you can't imagine him restanding and making a massive dent in the Tory vote (maj near as makes no odds = 20,000). If there was a massive swing to Labour and half the Tories stayed away the Tories could still squeeze in. If they lost this one it'd be seismic! 

[maryportfuncity 10,630]

Yer man in Tamworth suspended for EIGHT weeks, bring on the recall and by-election, then

 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-66115262

[prussianblue 1,025]

BBC article speculating about 5 potential Tory by-election losses in the near future, including an apparently unprecedented 3 in one day: 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66113704

[msc 18,426]

16 minutes ago, prussianblue said:

BBC article speculating about 5 potential Tory by-election losses in the near future, including an apparently unprecedented 3 in one day: 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66113704

 

Usual Tory hype so when they do slightly less absymally it can be painted as a great success.

 

1. Uxbridge - should go Labour though wary about the anti LEZ campaign. The odd local nimby-ish campaign has worked here and there despite the vast anti-Tory vote in the country. Cautiously Labour.

 

2. Selby - if the Tories lose Selby they're losing everything, Canadian Tories in the 1990s style. Surely the Tories must hold this one.

 

3. Somerton - Lib Dem gain. So much the Lib Dem heartland its practically haunted by Paddy Ashdown's ghost.

 

4. Mid Bed - whenever Dorries quits, if she does quit. I suspect she'll linger now she's not getting into the Lords. And the Lib Dems/Labour will cancel each other out.

 

5. Tamworth - Even safer than Selby above.

 

Gut is they hold 3 at least, and then sleepwalk into an election talking about how the public actually like them...

 

[TQR 14,384]

17 hours ago, msc said:

 

2. Selby - if the Tories lose Selby they're losing everything, Canadian Tories in the 1990s style. Surely the Tories must hold this one.

Labour are polling 12 points ahead in Selby. Dare to dream.

[Ulitzer95 12,573]

17 hours ago, msc said:

 

Usual Tory hype so when they do slightly less absymally it can be painted as a great success.

 

1. Uxbridge - should go Labour though wary about the anti LEZ campaign. The odd local nimby-ish campaign has worked here and there despite the vast anti-Tory vote in the country. Cautiously Labour.

 

2. Selby - if the Tories lose Selby they're losing everything, Canadian Tories in the 1990s style. Surely the Tories must hold this one.

 

3. Somerton - Lib Dem gain. So much the Lib Dem heartland its practically haunted by Paddy Ashdown's ghost.

 

4. Mid Bed - whenever Dorries quits, if she does quit. I suspect she'll linger now she's not getting into the Lords. And the Lib Dems/Labour will cancel each other out.

 

5. Tamworth - Even safer than Selby above.

 

Gut is they hold 3 at least, and then sleepwalk into an election talking about how the public actually like them...

 

Your analysis of Selby and Tamworth is wayyyy off.

Agree with the others.

[Ulitzer95 12,573]

From Politico's morning briefing today:

BY-ELECTIONS LOOM: A handful of MPs from the main parties are being dispatched today to the seats holding by-elections on July 20. While Labour is nervous about Johnson’s old Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat (more below), a JL Partners poll of 502 Selby and Ainsty constituents in today’s Yorkshire Post puts Labour on 41 percent and the Tories on 29. Labour MPs who spoke to Playbook this week were as chirpy about the true-blue seat — where Boris Johnson ally Nigel Adams quit — as Tory MPs were downbeat.

[msc 18,426]

1 hour ago, Ulitzer95 said:

Your analysis of Selby and Tamworth is wayyyy off.

Agree with the others.

 

Hah. I'm aware of the mood music from Selby (Labour activists in shock at the doorstep returns, Tories miserable) but I'm always wary of anecdotal evidence, and doubly so of constituency specific polling, which can be dodgy. I'm just naturally cautious, and can't quite believe Labour would take a seat in a by-election which isn't even in their top 200 targets. To go from their Hartlepool woes to winning Blair level by-election gains within 2 years is a bit of whiplash effect tbh!

 

Tamworth was Labour under Blair, but its since become one of the safest Tory seats in the UK, and is currently outside of the Labour party's top 400 likeliest target seats. It's even safer than the likes of Theresa May and Esther McVey's safe seats. Demographics haven't been Labour friendly here, with the seat swinging to the Tories in each election since 1997. The locals were unfriendly for the Tories, but still less unfriendly than others, as the Tory vote itself held up fairly well, and the Labour gains came from a massive UKIP to Labour vote switch. It's very much a growing middle class home owning, high house prices, high earning sort of seat. If the Tories have lost home owners (I am aware of the mortgage situation) to that extent...

 

I'm open to being a doubting Thomas about the obvious shift in Selby, but if Tamworth switched, I'd be beyond shocked. Selby confirms the general polling that the Tories are fucked. Tamworth would suggest existential crisis. 

 

But then, the last year or so, every time I mentally place what I assume is a cautiously low bar for the Tories electorally, they always manage to do worse. So what do I know? Nothing! 

 

 

[Ulitzer95 12,573]

Look at Tamworth in the 2010/15 elections. A lot more marginal. The Tory majority has rocketed there since then, but I don't think you can call anything with a large majority a "safe seat" if it hasn't carried a similar sized majority for at least a decade. You can secure a thumping majority in a seat on the back of several core issues and a successful election campaign/charismatic leader. Doesn't mean that will stick long term within that area, hence I don't think you could call Tamworth "safe". It really isn't. In fact, from knowing Pincher pretty well, he used to always tell me he never took the local Labour Party for granted.

[Kenny 283]

On 07/07/2023 at 10:28, Ulitzer95 said:

Your analysis of Selby and Tamworth is wayyyy off.

Agree with the others.

 

The Tories will lose the lot.

 

On 07/07/2023 at 12:58, Ulitzer95 said:

Look at Tamworth in the 2010/15 elections. A lot more marginal. The Tory majority has rocketed there since then, but I don't think you can call anything with a large majority a "safe seat" if it hasn't carried a similar sized majority for at least a decade. You can secure a thumping majority in a seat on the back of several core issues and a successful election campaign/charismatic leader. Doesn't mean that will stick long term within that area, hence I don't think you could call Tamworth "safe". It really isn't. In fact, from knowing Pincher pretty well, he used to always tell me he never took the local Labour Party for granted.

 

I'ver known Pincher for decades. He was always a desperate loser and failed his European Parliamentary Selection Board badly. His sexuality probably got him on the Westminster list when Cameron and his cronies were knifing as many straight white males as they could . Bumbling Boris was  even worse and is a lazy useless parasite who got his just desserts.

[maryportfuncity 10,630]

2 hours ago, Kenny said:

 

The Tories will lose the lot.

 

 

I'ver known Pincher for decades. He was always a desperate loser and failed his European Parliamentary Selection Board badly. His sexuality probably got him on the Westminster list when Cameron and his cronies were knifing as many straight white males as they could . Bumbling Boris was  even worse and is a lazy useless parasite who got his just desserts.

 

 

Boris's just desserts are finally served when his turn as Widow Twanky in Croydon draws rave reviews!

[Brad252 803]

On 07/07/2023 at 12:48, msc said:

I'm open to being a doubting Thomas about the obvious shift in Selby, but if Tamworth switched, I'd be beyond shocked. Selby confirms the general polling that the Tories are fucked. Tamworth would suggest existential crisis. 

 

But then, the last year or so, every time I mentally place what I assume is a cautiously low bar for the Tories electorally, they always manage to do worse. So what do I know? Nothing! 

 

 

I don't know how big "following the herd" is among UK voters, but if Selby switches that might make trying to flip Tamworth easier on the basis some voters would see Labour surging and believe that's the way to go.

[maryportfuncity 10,630]

On 09/07/2023 at 00:32, Brad252 said:

I don't know how big "following the herd" is among UK voters, but if Selby switches that might make trying to flip Tamworth easier on the basis some voters would see Labour surging and believe that's the way to go.

 

 

Aye, interesting mind because Labour on that kind of surge would likely spur on the hard lefties in their ranks to start acting like they'll get elected and stop being so subservient. Still thinking tactical voting and the like might tip these by-elections into seismic disaster for the Tories but that might not be such a clear guide to the election. 

[Sean 6,309]

Update coming Friday or Saturday.

[Tango854 278]

So uh, how are the by-elections going?

[Sean 6,309]

Won't know for a few hours yet.

[MortalCaso 1,624]

53 minutes ago, Sean said:

Won't know for a few hours yet.

Seems as though the leading party is headed towards 3 losses. No?

[RoverAndOut 4,745]

15 minutes ago, MortalCaso said:

Seems as though the leading party is headed towards 3 losses. No?

 

Lib Dems sounding confident in Somerset, Labour hopeful in Uxbridge (but local issues may count against them [ULEZ]). Selby looks close - Labour looking to overturn a 20,000 majority there, which is enormous. I don't count any chickens with UK elections any more.

[The Old Crem 3,580]

Tories win UxBridge, I predict Sadiq Kahn will be told to ditch ULEZ or Labour leadership will force him to retire. Suspect either way the Tories will win the mayoralty because the Greens/Corbyn will take a lot of votes in London and no supplementary vote. 

[RoverAndOut 4,745]

6 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

Tories win UxBridge, I predict Sadiq Kahn will be told to ditch ULEZ or Labour leadership will force him to retire. Suspect either way the Tories will win the mayoralty because the Greens/Corbyn will take a lot of votes in London and no supplementary vote. 

 

Impressive. As far as I'm aware there's a recount underway in Uxbridge. Which means it close, doesn't say who's in front/who's asked for the recount. Loving the slippery slope argument you're making too.