Coronavirus death toll 2020

[the_engineer 1,415]

I'm thinking 100k to 150k

[Deathray 2,940]

22 minutes ago, Steve said:

 Am I being optimistic with this figure or does anyone agree with me? 

 

Incredibly optimistic.

 

This is the 21st centuries Spanish Flu / Black Death

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,218]

2 minutes ago, Deathray said:

 

Incredibly optimistic.

 

This is the 21st centuries Spanish Flu / Black Death

You revel in a bit of drama, don't you!

[One shot Paddy 1,205]

[Deathray 2,940]

17 minutes ago, Lord Fellatio Nelson said:

 You revel in a bit of drama, don't you!

 

Not revelling in at all.

 

Just stating a fact. This has every chance of being some sort of viral apocalypse if not handled properly. 

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,218]

1 minute ago, Deathray said:

 

Not revelling in at all.

 

Just stating a fact. This has every chance of being some sort of viral apocalypse if not handled properly. 

[Deathray 2,940]

17 minutes ago, Lord Fellatio Nelson said:

 

Don't see what else there is to say.

 

Nearly 5,000 people are already dead from this thing and were nowhere near peak in many countries. Africa and South America aren't even at the foothills.

 

A few hundred thousand deaths seems inevitable, millions seems likely. Every death is horrible and unnecessary if the stupid chinkies hadn't developed bioweaponry but the reality is a highj death rate. 

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,218]

3 minutes ago, Deathray said:

 

Don't see what else there is to say.

 

Nearly 5,000 people are already dead from this thing and were nowhere near peak in many countries. Africa and South America aren't even at the foothills.

 

A few hundred thousand deaths seems inevitable, millions seems likely. Every death is horrible and unnecessary if the stupid chinkies hadn't developed bioweaponry but the reality is a highj death rate. 

You don't really do 'Politically correct' do you.

[Deathray 2,940]

1 minute ago, Lord Fellatio Nelson said:

You don't really do 'Politically correct' do you.

 

Sorry are we meant to call them dog-swallowers now?

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,218]

Just now, Deathray said:

 

Sorry are we meant to call them dog-swallowers now?

Well, I suppose not.

[DevonDeathTrip 2,358]

Has anyone tried smoking DMT and talking to the Coronavirus? 

[Genfærd 452]

1 hour ago, Steve said:

Am I being optimistic with this figure or does anyone agree with me? 

If my memory is correct, I believe that half a million americans alone died from H1N1 (or swine flu) back in 2009 which started in Mexico. It went on for over a year. Coronavirus is far more lethal which means we'll easily surpass a mil and possibly way more within the next year. A vaccine is probably not ready before late 2021. Life will eventually get back to normal but 10.000 tops is not only optimistic but unrealistic at this rate.

[Deathray 2,940]

Gov going from complete underreaction to complete overreaction in a matter of days. 

 

Forcing everyone over 70 or with a long term health problem to stay at home for four month. 

[paddyfool 379]

11 hours ago, drol said:

A fried of mine has just died from it. 54, obese, drinker. Nothing else. There are millions like him in our country. Millions.

 

I'm sorry for your loss.

 

12 hours ago, Deathray said:

Get the feeling the ultimate human cost of this could be in the millions. 

 

12 hours ago, Steve said:

I really don't think it will be that bad. I think maybe 10,000 tops and then life will start to get back to normal 

 

Steve, did you mean worldwide or in a specific country? Because worldwide we're getting into 400 deaths per day and rising at the moment - we will likely top 10,000 before the end of this month. 

 

In any event, I think the global death toll and sickness toll depend on a lot of factors:

- How much we can slow the spread to avoid overwhelming health systems; and how long countries will be able to stick to practices that limit spread

- How much we can nudge down the case mortality with tweaks to treatment protocols

- How the virus evolves, including whether milder strains emerge which would effectively immunise vs the nasty strain (milder strains would be selected for by case-finding efforts as less easy to find), and how effectively it would evolve to avoid existing immunity, allowing reinfection

- What proportion of patients have lasting lung damage, potentially leading to delayed attributable mortality

- How much we can persuade people to adopt healthy behaviours that should boost their chance of survival (not smoking, for instance). 

- How soon we get a vaccine (although all expert opinion that I've heard reckons it's at least a year away)

 

It could be the global mortality ends up anywhere from 5 figures to 8 figures imho (although the extreme ends of this range seem unlikely). 

[theoldlady 2,297]

On 14/03/2020 at 07:31, theoldlady said:

Good morning! Today is Saturday the 14th of March 2020.

This morning there are 996 cases reported. Still one death  and 1 recovered. At least 27 were critical last night. We will see what the Grim Reaper may bring today. 
1030 cases as of 1 p.m. 

Good morning! Today is Sunday the 15th of March 2020 in the Western part of Norway.

I have been in self-isolation since 10 a.m. last Wednesday the 11th March after I went shopping a Day before the official lock-down. I am working from home on my laptop. Husband out in the woods getting enough firewood for a few years from now. He is optimistic. Luckily he is retired and would only get exposed if I Get it. Everyone knows not to visit us. They finally understand this situation.

 

The cases are now 1,111, this includes 3 deaths  and only 1 person has recovered. Waiting for the real update for this morning.

They have threatened to arrest all those yesterday who went up to their mountain cabins ( not enough doctors and hospitals in those areas.) ( You can see my rant yesterday about this somewhere in this thread.)

 

At almost 2 p.m. Norwegian time we have 1,205 cases. No New deaths reported yet. Passed Britain now in the number of cases. How? We have a population between 5-6 million people. Britain is full of people. Something not correct in Britain`s statistics. 
 

Ok, now at 10 p.m. Britain has passed Norway in their number of cases again. Norway now has 1249 cases, UK 1391. With 140 New cases reported so far today in Norway - many more are suspected of having this, but are not tested unless they get more serious symptoms. These figures should be taken with a grain of salt. Goodnight and keep safe! Self-isolate as much as possible.

Edited March 15, 2020 by theoldlady
Updates.

[Deathray 2,940]

Can't wait for Brexit Dave's to be told the pubs are getting shut...

[drol 11,916]

14 hours ago, Prophet said:

When was he diagnosed?

A week between diagnosis and death. He caught it in hospital, as he was hospitalized for other (rather minor) health issues.

[Steve 596]

2 hours ago, paddyfool said:

 

I'm sorry for your loss.

 

 

 

Steve, did you mean worldwide or in a specific country? Because worldwide we're getting into 400 deaths per day and rising at the moment - we will likely top 10,000 before the end of this month. 

 

In any event, I think the global death toll and sickness toll depend on a lot of factors:

- How much we can slow the spread to avoid overwhelming health systems; and how long countries will be able to stick to practices that limit spread

- How much we can nudge down the case mortality with tweaks to treatment protocols

- How the virus evolves, including whether milder strains emerge which would effectively immunise vs the nasty strain (milder strains would be selected for by case-finding efforts as less easy to find), and how effectively it would evolve to avoid existing immunity, allowing reinfection

- What proportion of patients have lasting lung damage, potentially leading to delayed attributable mortality

- How much we can persuade people to adopt healthy behaviours that should boost their chance of survival (not smoking, for instance). 

- How soon we get a vaccine (although all expert opinion that I've heard reckons it's at least a year away)

 

It could be the global mortality ends up anywhere from 5 figures to 8 figures imho (although the extreme ends of this range seem unlikely). 

I meant 10,000 tops globally 

[paddyfool 379]

6 minutes ago, Steve said:

I meant 10,000 tops globally 

 

What calculation do you base that estimate on?

[paddyfool 379]

Impact of the covid19 outbreak on the obit section

nd. 

[the_engineer 1,415]

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/

 

Interesting link shows death tolls by each pandemic.

 

Coronavirus has only surpassed MERS and SARS. Ebola is next with 11300k then a big jump to yellow fever 100k - 150k , swine flu 200k. So it's not even the most deadly outbreak this century, however I do feel it will surpass ebola and yellow fever. Swine flu I'm not sure depends if there's is secondary outbreak.

[DeathClock 379]

The death toll has officially reached 6k worldwide

[ladyfiona 2,577]

Going into work tomorrow will be interesting if they are not going to allow over 70's out for non urgent appointments. Part of my job is book appointments for people to have their echocardiograms. About 60% of the patients are over 70 I reckon. I've even booked appointments for 100 year olds.

[Deathray 2,940]

32 minutes ago, ladyfiona said:

Going into work tomorrow will be interesting if they are not going to allow over 70's out for non urgent appointments. Part of my job is book appointments for people to have their echocardiograms. About 60% of the patients are over 70 I reckon. I've even booked appointments for 100 year olds.

 

Measures won't be brought in for a few weeks yet.

 

The bigger issue is that the entire government plan for this makes one idiotic assumption; pensioners won't just go out and socialise anyway....... pensioners are like reverse toddlers as they've got to the arrogance and don't give a fuck stage of life where they're immune to everything and government advice. Unless the army are going to start rounding up pensioners and arresting them for socialising the entire plan is fucked. 

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,218]

7 hours ago, Deathray said:

Gov going from complete underreaction to complete overreaction in a matter of days. 

 

Forcing everyone over 70 or with a long term health problem to stay at home for four month. 

Ok, you don't rate the governments actions so far.

So what would YOU do to minimise the impact of this virus?

Don't rattle out every other nations game plans, have a think and tell us what you would do.

We can all be critical, with some justification at times, but this is new territory for a new generation.

I also need to clarify my position. If I am confined to barracks for 2 weeks, I do not earn a fucking ha'penny.

See, all those people and businesses that will get immediate SSP and help to pay for it all, are just part of the impending issues.

There are a metric shit ton of self employed people like me out there so who the fuck is going to support me? Jimmy Tarbuck??!!!

Not wholly thought through, is it.