Prophet 245 Posted May 10, 2020 2 hours ago, Paul Bearer said: Germany numbers going up again after easing lockdown. I'm being a bit of a hypocrite (cos I'm going out to work) STAY AT HOME. That's not true. The reproductive factor goes up (it will be under 1.0 again next week, possibly at about 0.6-0.8, mark my words) but the numbers of currently infected people are still sinking. On fridays the numbers of new infections are usually higher than in the rest of the week and yesterday we had under 1000 infections again. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 12,135 Posted May 11, 2020 Big Job has helpfully tweeted this formula for working out the threat level of Covid in the UK. Devastatingly, it’s at 219,183.6 out of 5. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
torbrexbones 717 Posted May 11, 2020 It's about time this government caught up with the rest of the world and published the number of people that have recovered from the virus. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sir Creep 7,012 Posted May 11, 2020 1 hour ago, torbrexbones said: It's about time this government caught up with the rest of the world and published the number of people that have recovered from the virus. Oh let me help you with that for future pandemics: # of confirmed cases - # of dead from virus # of people who recovered Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
torbrexbones 717 Posted May 11, 2020 12 minutes ago, Sir Creep said: Oh let me help you with that for future pandemics: # of confirmed cases - # of dead from virus # of people who recovered That's OK for when it is all over but right now that sum can't be done, the UK is listed as having 190,651 active cases and I doubt very much if that number is correct as that number of people still in hospital with none discharged would create a bit of a headache for the NHS. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 12,135 Posted May 11, 2020 30 minutes ago, Sir Creep said: Oh let me help you with that for future pandemics: # of confirmed cases - # of dead from virus # of people who recovered Well there’s a turn up for the books; your maths has wiped out all current cases of Coronavirus. Rejoice! 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Toast 14,838 Posted May 11, 2020 20 minutes ago, torbrexbones said: That's OK for when it is all over but right now that sum can't be done, the UK is listed as having 190,651 active cases and I doubt very much if that number is correct as that number of people still in hospital with none discharged would create a bit of a headache for the NHS. They wouldn't all be in hospital though. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
torbrexbones 717 Posted May 11, 2020 48 minutes ago, Toast said: They wouldn't all be in hospital though. I just want to know how many have recovered and no longer classed as a 'current case', where they are makes no difference, the reason I said in hospital as that was the only place people were getting tested for long enough. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ladyfiona 2,038 Posted May 11, 2020 I can give the recovery rate for my local hospital trust (two a&e hospitals) to be about 750 dischared to maybe 300+ died. I don't get many emails about how many have died. Only recoveries and how many inpatients. The amount of inpatients has declinded by half compared to two weeks ago but i'm expecting an increase due to government advice being stupid. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
torbrexbones 717 Posted May 11, 2020 I know it is wrong to say this on this site but I don't actually care about the deaths from this virus, for me it's all about numbers of infected and numbers of recovered and the bastards wont publish the recovered numbers. They must have a record of all those that have been discharged from hospital all over the country, even that would do. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 12,135 Posted May 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, torbrexbones said: I know it is wrong to say this on this site but I don't actually care about the deaths from this virus You're in good company; neither does Her Majesty's Government. 1 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Paul Bearer 5,649 Posted May 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, torbrexbones said: I know it is wrong to say this on this site but I don't actually care about the deaths from this virus, for me it's all about numbers of infected and numbers of recovered and the bastards wont publish the recovered numbers. They must have a record of all those that have been discharged from hospital all over the country, even that would do. I'd guess it's because if they gave the recovered numbers, that might lure people into a false sense of security. Apparently there have been more recoveries than deaths. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Toast 14,838 Posted May 11, 2020 Still no way of knowing how many untested people have had the virus and recovered. There must be a lot who were never ill enough to need hospital treatment. 56 minutes ago, Paul Bearer said: I'd guess it's because if they gave the recovered numbers, that might lure people into a false sense of security. Apparently there have been more recoveries than deaths. At this evening's press conference Chris Whitty made a big point of saying that only a tiny percentage of people who caught the virus die from it. "I'll just repeat something I said right at the beginning, because it's worth reinforcing. Most people – well, a significant proportion – will not get this virus at all, at any point in the epidemic, which is going to go on for a long period of time. Of those who do, some of them will get the virus without even knowing it. They will have the virus with no symptoms at all – asymptomatic. Of those who get symptoms, the great majority – probably 80% - will have a mild or moderate disease that might be bad enough for them to have to go to bed for a few days, but not bad enough to go to the doctor. An unfortunate minority will have to go as far as hospital, but the majority of those will just need oxygen and will then leave hospital. And a minority will end up having to go to critical care, and some of those, sadly, will die. But that's a minority – it's 1% or possibly even less than 1% overall, and even in the highest risk group this is significantly less than 20%. The great majority of people, even in the highest risk groups, if they catch this virus will not die." I'm sure they also said that they would give recovery figures, such as are known. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Miracle Aligner 249 Posted May 11, 2020 37 minutes ago, Toast said: Still no way of knowing how many untested people have had the virus and recovered. There must be a lot who were never ill enough to need hospital treatment. At this evening's press conference Chris Whitty made a big point of saying that only a tiny percentage of people who caught the virus die from it. I'm sure they also said that they would give recovery figures, such as are known. Lord Sumptious pointed out this best It's a waste of everybody's fucking time and a massive breach of millions civil liberties to subject us to lockdowns and fucking shielding. Let us get on with our lives and let the tiny fraction - mostly the old and ill anyway who'd probably die of some other shite - go back to work. No doubt i'll get flack for this but i'm getting tired of the government confining me to house arrest to save me from a virus that has a relatively small chance of killing me and similarly small chance of killing the overwhelming majority of other people apparently. https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1278949/uk-lockdown-end-lord-sumption-bbc-news Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paddyfool 379 Posted May 12, 2020 13 hours ago, Miracle Aligner said: Lord Sumptious pointed out this best It's a waste of everybody's fucking time and a massive breach of millions civil liberties to subject us to lockdowns and fucking shielding. Let us get on with our lives and let the tiny fraction - mostly the old and ill anyway who'd probably die of some other shite - go back to work. No doubt i'll get flack for this but i'm getting tired of the government confining me to house arrest to save me from a virus that has a relatively small chance of killing me and similarly small chance of killing the overwhelming majority of other people apparently. https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1278949/uk-lockdown-end-lord-sumption-bbc-news Assuming you're under 50 and in good health, your chances of dying are indeed low. Your chances of killing someone else by infecting them are another matter. Your chances of longish term debilitation with prolonged shortness of breath are also worth considering. The UK was seeing double its usual rate of overall mortality in April, with more than 10,000 extra deaths per week. These aren't small figures. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Toast 14,838 Posted May 12, 2020 By the way, I had absolutely no idea till yesterday that we weren't allowed to speak to more than one person at a time, even if we keep at least 2m apart. Where I live, you know pretty much everyone you see while out. I regularly see friends and neighbours, people from the same households, who are out walking together and see no harm in pausing to chat for a few minutes. We've all been doing that since the lockdown started. Not stopping now. There isn't any one size fits all answer, we just do what seems reasonable. This sums it up for me Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paddyfool 379 Posted May 12, 2020 On 23/03/2020 at 09:36, paddyfool said: Casual prediction: This year, the UK will see more deaths than in any year on record for the last hundred years (I'm not sure if we'll exceed the whopping 715,000 deaths seen in 1918 courtesy of WWI and the Spanish Flu, but I reckon 2020 will likely beat every year since then; for reference, the last year on record, 2018, saw 616,000 deaths). On 23/03/2020 at 09:52, Deathray said: For context - the grimmest league table in history (stats start from 1887) 1918 - 715,246 1891 - 696,490 1900 - 695,867 1899 - 685,510 1976 - 680,799 1895 - 676,110 1979 - 675,576 1972 - 673,938 1893 - 673,722 1940 - 673,253 Also in 2018 there was 1687 deaths a day. And in 2017 there was 1663 deaths a day Puts the Covid-19 numbers in context. Given that we saw 50,000 excess deaths in the UK in the 5 weeks ending at May 1st, and, as Miracle Aligner's graph shows, it's not over yet, we'll have to be very lucky indeed for 2020 not to end the year in a top 10 league table position. My prior "top 2" prediction is not nailed in yet, but doesn't seem unlikely. (Yes, I know some of the excess deaths so far will include people who have died later in the year. But equally, recession, missed cancer diagnoses, delayed treatments, and the complications of infections so far survived are not going to be kind on mortality for the rest of the year. And then there's the question of a second wave). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,173 Posted May 13, 2020 If Korea is any warning Norway will have to start/stop a bit. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Prophet 245 Posted May 13, 2020 4 hours ago, The Old Crem said: If Korea is any warning Norway will have to start/stop a bit. South Korea only had 26 new cases today. That's not a second wave, that's only panic by the media and so-called experts who were wrong with all of their doomsday predictions until now. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,132 Posted May 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Prophet said: South Korea only had 26 new cases today. That's not a second wave, that's only panic by the media and so-called experts who were wrong with all of their doomsday predictions until now. Testing, testing, testing. That's why there were only 26 new cases in South Korea. So what happens when they stop testing? This virus is highly virulent, it will infect many more people than influenza can and, proportionately, will kill more people. I don't think that is arguable, is it, surely? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Miracle Aligner 249 Posted May 13, 2020 22 hours ago, paddyfool said: Given that we saw 50,000 excess deaths in the UK in the 5 weeks ending at May 1st, and, as Miracle Aligner's graph shows, it's not over yet, we'll have to be very lucky indeed for 2020 not to end the year in a top 10 league table position. My prior "top 2" prediction is not nailed in yet, but doesn't seem unlikely. (Yes, I know some of the excess deaths so far will include people who have died later in the year. But equally, recession, missed cancer diagnoses, delayed treatments, and the complications of infections so far survived are not going to be kind on mortality for the rest of the year. And then there's the question of a second wave). This is the current Top 20 1918 715,246 1891 696,490 1900 695,867 1899 685,510 1976 680,799 1895 676,110 1979 675,576 1972 673,938 1893 673,722 1940 673,253 1985 670,656 1973 669,692 1974 667,359 1978 667,177 1915 666,322 1890 665,758 1982 662,801 1975 662,477 1980 661,519 1892 661,273 To put some context we had some of the lowest death rates in recorded years only 5-10 years ago; so given our aging population; even without the pandemic we'd be expecting sharp continued rises in death totals. Following on from that adding the pandemic in and it seems likely we'll challenge the Top 10. However it's worth noting if you add 50k to the 5 year average you still don't enter the top 10 (598703 + 50,000 = 648,703) or even top 20. 2018 - 616,014 (64th) 2017 - 607,172 (72nd) 2016 - 597,206 (85th) 2015 - 602,782 (78th) 2014 - 570,341 (111th) 2013 - 576,458 (104th) 2012 - 569,024 (112th) 2011 - 552,232 (126th) 2010 - 561,666 (119th) (of 132 years in total in the dataset) Deaths were already on the way up prior to this compared to 5 years ago - 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
