General Election 2024?

[YoungWillz 21,050]

Yesterday was a total brainmelt.

 

Sunak embracing the far right leader of Italy.

 

Starmer essentially launching a manifesto of which the Tories would be proud.

 

Kate Forbes being the worst representative of the SNP ever on Question Time.

 

Reform overtaking the Tories in the Polls.

 

Mordaunt being handed her own arse by Farage.

 

I let it all wash over me tbh. It's desperate.

 

And now Scotland will try and beat Germany today? 

[Grim Up North 3,726]

35 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

Laura Trott is a laugh a minute.

 

Apparently, Starmer and Labour are Machiavellian schemers who aren't telling you what they would do, particularly on tax. It's not what is in their manifesto, it's what is not there.

 

Reform haven't promised to invade France.

 

The Tories haven't promised to open a Vietnamese restaurant on every street in the UK.

 

The Greens haven't promised to deface Constable's The Haywain.

 

The SNP haven't promised to make the National Anthem Sheena Easton's 9 To 5 (Morning Train).

 

The LibDems haven't promised to deport every Tory voter to the Phillippines.

 

Who knows what all these parties' secret plans are? Any of the above might just happen.

 

Trott along.

[En Passant 3,741]

7 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

And now Scotland will try and beat Germany today? 

 

I'm hoping so. And getting in first with this before the Scots onslaught of "Anyone but England" starts.

 

The political parties might go negative, but I'm not starting it. (yet).

[msc 18,477]

18 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

 

Starmer essentially launching a manifesto of which the Tories would be proud.

 

Just to say having read the manifesto a vast chunk of it is lifted directly from the 2019 manifesto! Shame UBI is on the back burner though. And I'm not keen on much of the language around immigration and welfare. Even so, considerably to the left of the Blair manifesto in 1997.

 

The Tory manifesto is all about how people need to be of service. Ominous shit.

 

Not read the SNP manifesto yet but from history neither will several of their candidates!

 

22 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

 

And now Scotland will try and beat Germany today? 

 

Hopefully. 

 

@En Passant from Glasgow, anyone but France! 3 of the last 4 finals, time they gave someone else a go! If that's England fair enough. Would like a proper underdog win though like Denmark 92 or the Greeks in 2004. 

[Philheybrookbay1 247]

15 hours ago, The Old Crem said:

Putting it in to the electoral Calculus gives 

Labour 464

Tory 71

Lib Dem 69

SNP 14

Reform 5 (Ashfield, Boston and Skegness, Clacton, Torridge and Tavistock, Wellingborough and Rushden)

Plaid 4

Green 2

Other 3 (Birmingham Ladywood, Islington North and Rochdale)

 

I'd be stunned if Torridge and Tavi goes Reform. It's more likely to go Lib Dem IMHO. 

 

South Devon is turning into a sea of yellow on the road yesterday. Remarkable to see. There's posters everywhere saying "after 100 years time for a change from tories" as you drive into Kingsbridge.  

[The Old Crem 3,605]

20 minutes ago, msc said:

 

Just to say having read the manifesto a vast chunk of it is lifted directly from the 2019 manifesto! Shame UBI is on the back burner though. And I'm not keen on much of the language around immigration and welfare. Even so, considerably to the left of the Blair manifesto in 1997.

 

The Tory manifesto is all about how people need to be of service. Ominous shit.

 

Not read the SNP manifesto yet but from history neither will several of their candidates!

 

 

Hopefully. 

 

@En Passant from Glasgow, anyone but France! 3 of the last 4 finals, time they gave someone else a go! If that's England fair enough. Would like a proper underdog win though like Denmark 92 or the Greeks in 2004. 

I think the Immigration stuff is very much somethine that is simply an electoral necessity rather than an idea the whole the front bench are fully happy about. Ditto to a much greater extent  Welfare - many of the front bench have publicly criticised the two child limit over the years and I suspect will be a fault line going forward.  (Through actually one of the biggest could well be Trump’s re-election  - the Greens could gain a lot of support from Labour voters from now that is dealt with. )

 

And from someone in England good luck to Scotland as well. 

[YoungWillz 21,050]

8 minutes ago, msc said:

Just to say having read the manifesto a vast chunk of it is lifted directly from the 2019 manifesto! Shame UBI is on the back burner though. And I'm not keen on much of the language around immigration and welfare. Even so, considerably to the left of the Blair manifesto in 1997.

 

The Tory manifesto is all about how people need to be of service. Ominous shit.

 

Not read the SNP manifesto yet but from history neither will several of their candidates!

I'm not so sure - I never read manifestos, think of the trees and climate change, for gawd's sakes.

 

So I judge Labour on what they say. There's a lot of what I'd regard as Blairite soundbites. On the side of business and wealth creation - that's where Blair really let working folk down later, as he cosied up to business leaders. 

 

But I should be clear - Labour sound like they are launching a manifesto from Government. Steady as she goes, here's a few plans to get the country back on its feet, etc. That is an old school Tory way of doing things, not the current crop of right wing nutters.

 

The message of the current Tory Government is let's raid the welfare budget again to spaff more money into the pockets of the wealthy. There is nothing as far as I can see from them for how things will be done better, or a promise to voters beyond the next morning's crisis - that's where they are losing badly.

 

I think the SNP don't launch until Monday. Flynn has by all accounts been an outstanding performer which could rescue some seats they might lose to Labour, but I think most folk have made up their mind tbh. 

 

Maybe we should be asking why Labour are in general dropping in the polls, and will that continue.

[TQR 14,398]

8 minutes ago, Philheybrookbay1 said:

I'd be stunned if Torridge and Tavi goes Reform. It's more likely to go Lib Dem IMHO. 

 

South Devon is turning into a sea of yellow on the road yesterday. Remarkable to see. There's posters everywhere saying "after 100 years time for a change from tories" as you drive into Kingsbridge.  

If Reform get anything, it’ll be Clacton and that’s it. Leave alone the likes of Torridge and Wellingborough, the notion of Ashfield voting for Lee Anderson again is laughable.

[The Old Crem 3,605]

5 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

I'm not so sure - I never read manifestos, think of the trees and climate change, for gawd's sakes.

 

So I judge Labour on what they say. There's a lot of what I'd regard as Blairite soundbites. On the side of business and wealth creation - that's where Blair really let working folk down later, as he cosied up to business leaders. 

 

But I should be clear - Labour sound like they are launching a manifesto from Government. Steady as she goes, here's a few plans to get the country back on its feet, etc. That is an old school Tory way of doing things, not the current crop of right wing nutters.

 

The message of the current Tory Government is let's raid the welfare budget again to spaff more money into the pockets of the wealthy. There is nothing as far as I can see from them for how things will be done better, or a promise to voters beyond the next morning's crisis - that's where they are losing badly.

 

I think the SNP don't launch until Monday. Flynn has by all accounts been an outstanding performer which could rescue some seats they might lose to Labour, but I think most folk have made up their mind tbh. 

 

Maybe we should be asking why Labour are in general dropping in the polls, and will that continue.

The problem with the SNP manifesto is it’s basically just them repeating their Holyrood policies and a set of wish lists for the areas they can’t control. So it’s harder to make an impact from a Westminster manifesto. 

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

51 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

Maybe we should be asking why Labour are in general dropping in the polls, and will that continue.

 

Possibly the absolute trash talking of Jeremy Corbyn is alienating anyone with a vague notion of what a Labour party would traditionally stand for......

 

At the very least it calls into question Starmer's own integrity as he appears to be trying to retcon his whole political history

[msc 18,477]

45 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

I'm not so sure - I never read manifestos, think of the trees and climate change, for gawd's sakes.

 

So I judge Labour on what they say. There's a lot of what I'd regard as Blairite soundbites. On the side of business and wealth creation - that's where Blair really let working folk down later, as he cosied up to business leaders. 

 

To be fair, I think politicians mostly talk a lot of shite so judge them on what they put into print (and can be held to) or what they actually do with power (and can be judged on). Can't do the latter with Starmer yet! (Stress on "yet".)

 

47 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

 

But I should be clear - Labour sound like they are launching a manifesto from Government. Steady as she goes, here's a few plans to get the country back on its feet, etc. That is an old school Tory way of doing things, not the current crop of right wing nutters.

 

It is very much don't scare the horses, but given England's propensity to vote for the Tories at the slightest excuse, and also to vote for the Tories when Labour do good stuff in office (NHS and welfare? Vote Tory. Liberalise society and keep us out of Vietnam? Vote Tory. Tories fucked up the economy? Vote Tory. etc etc) I do understand it. Even if its as exciting as plain rice for dinner.

 

48 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

 

 

Maybe we should be asking why Labour are in general dropping in the polls, and will that continue.

 

YouGov and others have changed their weighting mid-election which seems... weird to me but I'm not a pollster. (The last YouGov would have had Labour on 44% but has shifted prediction of the don't knows and former Tory voters from 2019.)  Lots of hedging bets I think. 

 

Everyone is focused on the Lab/Tory and Tory/Reform polling differences but I think we need to keep an eye on the Tory/Lib Dem margin, as its getting a lot closer and that effects about 100 Tory seats.

[The Old Crem 3,605]

17 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

Possibly the absolute trash talking of Jeremy Corbyn is alienating anyone with a vague notion of what a Labour party would traditionally stand for......

 

At the very least it calls into question Starmer's own integrity as he appears to be trying to retcon his whole political history

 

I think it’s because Polls tend to show Corbyn is now fairly toxic with pretty much anyone who didn’t vote Labour in 2019. Expelling him and being so critical seems to be the only way to win back many of the marginals bit it’s obviously at the cost of many voters but these are disproportionately in safe seats. Labour’s vote looks like it will become a lot more efficient than it has been for the last few elections. ( Remember in 2005 Labour won a large majority being only a few points ahead of the Tories and getting less votes in England then them). 

[Master Obit 831]

2 hours ago, YoungWillz said:

The LibDems haven't promised to deport every Tory voter to the Phillippines.

 

You can't deny that it's an idea that merits discussion, though.

[Toast 16,140]

1 minute ago, Master Obit said:

2 hours ago, YoungWillz said:

The LibDems haven't promised to deport every Tory voter to the Phillippines.

 

You can't deny that it's an idea that merits discussion, though.

 

Surely there's somewhere nastier.

[YoungWillz 21,050]

Just now, Toast said:

 

Surely there's somewhere nastier.

We have not got an extradition treaty with Satan yet. 

[The Old Crem 3,605]

1 minute ago, Toast said:

 

Surely there's somewhere nastier.

Correct. The Phillipines is a pretty nice place from what o have heard and all the Filipinos I’ve met here in the UK have been lovely. 

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

3 minutes ago, Toast said:

 

Surely there's somewhere nastier.

Rwanda ? What's good for the goose etc... 

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

8 minutes ago, DCI Frank Burnside said:

Rwanda ? What's good for the goose etc... 

 .....is good for the goose steppers

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

35 minutes ago, msc said:

Everyone is focused on the Lab/Tory and Tory/Reform polling differences but I think we need to keep an eye on the Tory/Lib Dem margin, as its getting a lot closer and that effects about 100 Tory seats.

 

Also Lab/Lib votes. Curtice has a piece on the BBC website today looking at how the polls have changed since the start and noted that both the Tories and Labour are down 3-4 points from the start of the campaign. The Tories losses have gone almost entirely to Reform but he suggests some of Labour's loss of support feeds into an uptick in Lib Dem support, from around 9% to 12%. My personal addition would be that some of that may be due to Davey having a great campaign and convincing a few people, but it may also be due to people in solid Tory seats realising that there's a genuine shot of deposing the sitting MP and switching their vote from who they'd like to win (Labour) to who could get rid of the Tory (Lib Dems). Fine for a defiant vote in a lost cause but if it could mean something, may as well give it a go...

[Thatcher 2,417]

Another surprising by-election result, this time for Greenwich Council. Follows odd results in Powys and North Lincolnshire last week, and Birmingham a fortnight ago.

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

If Keir Starmer's dad is constantly referred to as a toolmaker. Is it acceptable to refer to Keir Starmer as a tool?

[The Old Crem 3,605]

1 hour ago, Thatcher said:

Another surprising by-election result, this time for Greenwich Council. Follows odd results in Powys and North Lincolnshire last week, and Birmingham a fortnight ago.

This is why I think a hung parliament is still very much entirely possible (Even with the fact polls and on the ground reports suggest they might not be a Tory to Labour swing in London)

 

A less out of sync with the polls by election Result in Scotland through.

[The Old Crem 3,605]

Peter Mandelson has been campaigning in Islington North. He must be thinking Labour are in with a good chance of beating Jeremy Corbyn. Lord Mandelson wouldn’t bother to go if it was looking like a landslide win for Corbyn. Labour themselves would tactically retreat as well and focus on their London target seats as well 

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

I have just had a twenty minute conversation on the phone with our prospective Labour party candidate

[BuffaloPhil 926]

20 hours ago, TQR said:

YouGov poll has Reform 1 point ahead of the Conservative party - 19% plays 18%.

 

YouGov polls have been known to throw up some weird things in the past and I wouldn't read too much into this, but that's got to sting the Tories.

 

 

 

7 hours ago, DCI Frank Burnside said:

And so it begins

 

 

 

 

The same YouGov report has this seat projection :

Labour 422

Conservative 140

Lib Dem 48

SNP 17

Green 2

Plaid Cymru 2

Reform 0

Northern Ireland and Others 19

 

So the percentages of the vote and of the seats turn out as :

 

Labour - 37% of the vote, 64.9% of the seats

Conservative - 18% of the vote, 21.5% of the seats

Lib Dem - 14% of the vote, 7.4% of the seats

SNP - 3% of the vote, 2.6% of the seats

Green - 7% of the vote, 0.3% of the seats

Plaid Cymru - 1% of the vote, 0.3% of the seats

Reform - 19% of the vote, 0% of the seats

NI/Others - 2% of the vote, 2.9% of the seats.

 

Reform would kick off (understandably, to be fair) and hopefully Labour will bring in some form of PR, as FPTP has generally hurt them more than it's helped them.