General Election 2024?

[maryportfuncity 10,616]

So, things are kicking off, positions are being adopted etc. etc. If one thing's prompted this thread more than owt else it's hearing on the news a couple of days back that the average age of Conservatives announcing they won't stand again is around 52, a full twenty years younger than the average age of Labour retirees. Deserting Tories include George Eustice (51), Red Wall darling Dehenna Davison (29) , Chloe Smith (40), Andrew Percy (45) and - perhaps biggest surprise - William Wragg (34). Granted you can find inidividual reasons, like kids and boundary changes but some of these have the youth and talent to ride out Tory tides and play the long game. I'm wondering if the private polling done by all political parties is starting to tell on their resolve as the pollsters come to Conservative Party HQ and say "They fucking hate us!" Similarly, Starmer's long-game appears to be working but I'm wondering what the odds at Corals would be if you bet on seeing "Starmer" and "Charisma" on a newspaper front page in the next year. Likely to be tactical voting on a hitherto unimagined scale to skew any pollsters plans to call it and a few other wildcards in there (like the way the Tories handle the dwindling fortunes of the chubster who preceded the Truss calamity). A veritable Deathlist banter-fest, then, Let's get among it! My best guess is late Summer 2024 election, thin Labour outright majority, unruly left wing backbenchers scuppering Starmer, the Lib Dems suspicious after the coalition calamity forcing voting reform as the price of any confidence and supply deal and the SNP, reduced but still influential, proving a wild card. And Rhys-Mogg providing the Portillo moment on the day.

 

 

[Great Uncle Bulgaria 1,275]

Sadly I think it's far from a done deal. Time and time again opinion polls have underestimated the Tory vote. Millions of people say they won't vote for them but do so anyway.

Given lower inflation, interest rates and fuel bills by then, I think they will have a chance. The Murdoch press and The Express, Telegraph, etc will get Tory voters out.

Whatever his other faults, Tony Blair had charisma. Starmer doesn't.

Hope I'm wrong, but I can foresee a 1992-style result with the Tories 'surprisingly' hanging on while Starmer plucks a Kinnock-style defeat from the jaws of victory.

[Clorox Bleachman 2,390]

I'll be voting Labour to help get this Tory government out. No party loyalty here. Perhaps a tad early to decide, but I'm not re-electing TERF Carol Monaghan.

[Paul Bearer 6,093]

I won’t be voting again.  They’re all a bunch of “In it for themselves” bastards.  The only time they’re your friend is around election time. Cunts, every single one of them. 

[YoungWillz 20,918]

Good time to start this thread just after Tina Turner's death.

 

Who can forget Tina's stirring call to vote for the MP's who would take their seats in the Parliament on the River Thames?

 

Polling

Polling

Polling on the river...

[TQR 14,352]

18 minutes ago, Clorox Bleachman said:

I'll be voting Labour to help get this Tory government out.

Same. I am, to say the very least, pretty fucking narked at Starmer’s direction of travel, but it has to be Labour, not least because there are no Green candidates in my constituency and the Lib Dems have still got a lot of fucking off to do for 2010.

 

Not voting ≈ a vote for the Tories imo.

[msc 18,397]

8 minutes ago, TQR said:

Same. I am, to say the very least, pretty fucking narked at Starmer’s direction of travel, but it has to be Labour, not least because there are no Green candidates in my constituency and the Lib Dems have still got a lot of fucking off to do for 2010.

 

Not voting ≈ a vote for the Tories imo.

 

Except in seats where they can outright topple a Tory MP in which case I'd vote for them.

 

Not an issue in Glasgow, mind you. 

 

I think this is aiming to be very much a "fuck off to this government" type election, with Starmer winning being secondary to anti-government rage. Especially if food prices remain ghastly.

[Spade_Cooley 9,474]

I'm voting Labour because Starmer looks like the non-Brighton gay guy from Gogglebox.

[Grim Up North 3,717]

2 minutes ago, msc said:

"fuck off to this government" type election

 

Agree and rightly so - I would prefer it if it was clearly a 'fuck off to corruption in politics of which this government is the worst ever example' but hopefully they will get the message.

[Toast 16,063]

I was confident about tactically voting LibDem to GTTO, but now it looks like their gerrymandering is going to make it harder to call. Bastards.

[prussianblue 1,003]

I live in an SNP seat which Labour have a very strong chance of gaining. I've never voted Labour, but I'm sorely tempted to if it helps eject the current Westminster shower.

[maryportfuncity 10,616]

33 minutes ago, msc said:

 

Except in seats where they can outright topple a Tory MP in which case I'd vote for them.

 

Not an issue in Glasgow, mind you. 

 

I think this is aiming to be very much a "fuck off to this government" type election, with Starmer winning being secondary to anti-government rage. Especially if food prices remain ghastly.

 

 

Yeah, which makes it really hard to call because there may be more Lib Dems over the line than you'd think from their current poll standings. The really lively possibility afterwards is what happens if Starmer struggles to control the hard left die-hards sill in the ranks and that scuppers his centrist plans. Clearly, one option is the Lib Dems supporting them on the back of voting reform. The downside for Labour being the remaining lefties would fuck off into their own corner and be grudging supporters at best, the upside for most parties being voting reform might be to make outright Conservative majorities an impossibility going forward.

 

Ironically, making us very European. 

 

Interesting times, like!

[msc 18,397]

42 minutes ago, Toast said:

I was confident about tactically voting LibDem to GTTO, but now it looks like their gerrymandering is going to make it harder to call. Bastards.

 

I wouldn't lose heart yet. The wards in that seat saw a big swing to the Lib Dems in the locals a few weeks ago, with the Lib Dems topping the poll in all bar two of them, with a circa 5000 vote lead. 

 

This was on a much smaller turnout than at a general election, but the fact there was such a substantial Tory to Lib Dem vote switch suggests there is potential for a Lib Dem bandwagon there. 

 

(This is based on the new boundaries for the seat, and not the 2019 boundaries.)

[The Great Cornholio 898]

I'll either vote 3rd party or not vote at all. Tbh I think that we can no longer vote our way out of this mess of a country we live in, just focus on making yourself economically viable and lowkey prepare for the apocalypse 

[ladyfiona 2,558]

I live in a very safe Tory seat but my MP won't commit to a next general election as he's bascially gone bankrupt. The local area (except where I live ironically enough) either went Labour or Lib Dem for first time in 30 years or something in recent local elections.

 

I would usually vote lib dem but will most likely vote labour to get Tories out. I mean if a very safe Tory seat has now gone centrist or left then something seriously has gone wrong.

[Sly Ronnie 870]

I've been fag-packeting the numbers on Electoral Calculus.

 

For the Tories to lose their majority enough that even the DUP can't force them over the line would require a 6% swing in Labour's favour, leaving them even stevens in vote share but Labour around 60 seats behind the Tories. That's a loss of 60 odd seats, based on the new boundaries calculation. And that is not taking into account tactical voting, which might give the Lib Dems a step up. The SNP's support is starting to crumble and Labour can only benefit from this.

There's talk of 1997-style annihilation but gut instinct suggests a tighter a '64/'74 outcome in '24. That said, with the Tories having few allies across the benches, even becoming the largest party would suffice for Labour to form a government.

[maryportfuncity 10,616]

9 hours ago, Sly Ronnie said:

I've been fag-packeting the numbers on Electoral Calculus.

 

For the Tories to lose their majority enough that even the DUP can't force them over the line would require a 6% swing in Labour's favour, leaving them even stevens in vote share but Labour around 60 seats behind the Tories. That's a loss of 60 odd seats, based on the new boundaries calculation. And that is not taking into account tactical voting, which might give the Lib Dems a step up. The SNP's support is starting to crumble and Labour can only benefit from this.

There's talk of 1997-style annihilation but gut instinct suggests a tighter a '64/'74 outcome in '24. That said, with the Tories having few allies across the benches, even becoming the largest party would suffice for Labour to form a government.

 

 

Well, yeah - pretty much what I think  but Labour still have enough back benchers with hard left ideas who'll happily get elected before giving Starmer problems, to a slim majority might be no majority in practice. 

 

The Tories won't get inflation down IMHO which will shred some of their current offer, so within a year they'll be in that abyss of no time to correct the problems and no sign they can sort them. Not sure even the Daily Mail can save them. Though the front pages over the next year will likely be amusing

 

[maryportfuncity 10,616]

So, this thing with Bojo being willing to give up his Whatsapp content regardless of the what the govt. are currently planning. If we assume he's more self-serving narcissist than public spirited presumably he knows there's stuff in that content that shows a handful of those standing in the way of his return who are implicated in those messages and clearly shown to be aware of stuff that that broke regulations. The manoeuvres after the local elections were a damp squib with only a handful of the usual suspects - Nadine and Jacob - really stepping up, Bojo isn't - apparently - convincing any upwardly mobile Conservative that the future involves bringing him back and he might just be prepared to damage those trying to make the Tories less of an electoral liability. Time is running down for that electoral miracle, then.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65787617

[Philheybrookbay1 247]

If the local election is anything to go by, I’d expect a few Tories to get the push here in Devon and Cornwall. The most obvious is Johnny Mercer in Plymouth Moor View, with the whole City going Labour in locals and making strong inroads in the North wards he must be in serious danger. He’s a Rishi fan so that will go against him. 
 

Keep an eye on Devon with Totnes and Mid Devon likely to go Lib Dem and St Ives to go the same way. You can’t rule out North Devon either. 
 

Labour should hold Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, Exeter and gain George Eustice seat down in St Austell. 

[ladyfiona 2,558]

15 hours ago, Philheybrookbay1 said:

If the local election is anything to go by, I’d expect a few Tories to get the push here in Devon and Cornwall. The most obvious is Johnny Mercer in Plymouth Moor View, with the whole City going Labour in locals and making strong inroads in the North wards he must be in serious danger. He’s a Rishi fan so that will go against him. 
 

Keep an eye on Devon with Totnes and Mid Devon likely to go Lib Dem and St Ives to go the same way. You can’t rule out North Devon either. 
 

Labour should hold Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, Exeter and gain George Eustice seat down in St Austell. 

 

Mum has two friends who live in Devon. One of which lives in Totnes and it's a bit of a weird town so wouldn't surprise me that it would go Lib Dem.

[Bibliogryphon 9,509]

Caroline Lucas to stand down at the next election.

 

Will the Green Party hold Brighton Pavillion without her?

 

 

[Great Uncle Bulgaria 1,275]

1 hour ago, Bibliogryphon said:

Caroline Lucas to stand down at the next election.

 

Will the Green Party hold Brighton Pavillion without her?

Given the size of her current majority, very probably.

[msc 18,397]

Imo she saw the Brighton local results and is jumping before pushed.

[Sly Ronnie 870]

They've got a huge majority so it shouldn't be in any danger. Would be a bit of a Brucie Bonus for Labour to nick it should the election turn out tighter than expected.

[Father Brown 207]

I think the Tories are actually running out of steam. 13 years in power with multiple leadership changes and many more reshuffles means that they’re running out of people who want cabinet roles, let alone the 4 top jobs. They will want to hang onto Sunak & friends going into this election and deflect any media attention.

 

Likewise with Labour, they need to get a grip and stick with Starmer to get the tories out. Internal affairs can wait; I don’t see another Labour MP that could be in with a better chance.