The Ukraine Crisis

[gcreptile 10,967]

Biden supposedly called for an urgent phone chat today. And while I think that the Russian government in general has been a force of evil in the past 5 years or so, this "urgent phone call" reminded me of the "smoking gun" times.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

I think it’s just the US Military Industrial Complex trying to get another place to make money. Even the Ukraine President said before that nothing is urgent with Russia recently 

[The Old Crem 3,583]

I think 2022 will see a nuclear war.

[Grim Up North 3,725]

7 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

I think 2022 will see a nuclear war.

haha - that’ll be some busy Obit writing days for DI!

[The Old Crem 3,583]

2 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

I think it’s just the US Military Industrial Complex trying to get another place to make money. Even the Ukraine President said before that nothing is urgent with Russia recently 

I don’t think the Ukrainian people believe that is really the case. 

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,218]

17 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

I think 2022 will see a nuclear war.

Well, let's all look on the bright side.

The Commies will hit London, you will be vaporised and we won' have to read your stupid fucking posts any more.

 

[Paul Bearer 6,101]

Putin and Biden playing "Let's see who's got the biggest dick" .  Russians will back down saying "We told you, we were only playing war games"  USA embarressed again.   

[The Old Crem 3,583]

13 minutes ago, Paul Bearer said:

Putin and Biden playing "Let's see who's got the biggest dick" .  Russians will back down saying "We told you, we were only playing war games"  USA embarressed again.   

The BBC think Russia might invade the more pro Russian parts of Ukraine but then hold of attacking Kiev.

[MortalCaso 1,625]

I see people are still fearmongering. Situation is no different today than it was a few weeks ago.

 

Russia is likely to invade, now or within a few years. They won't take control of the whole country and nothing will happen to them.

Not much of a news-story, unless you live in Ukraine that is. Read my earlier post on this if you want my opinion.

[Toast 16,137]

1 hour ago, Lord Fellatio Nelson said:

1 hour ago, The Old Crem said:

I think 2022 will see a nuclear war.

 

Well, let's all look on the bright side.

The Commies will hit London, you will be vaporised and we won' have to read your stupid fucking posts any more.

 

 

With any luck, the Queen will succumb to her terminal pancreatic cancer before any of that happens.

[Sir Creep 7,070]

19 hours ago, The Old Crem said:

I think 2022 will see a nuclear war.

 

 

[MortalCaso 1,625]

Reports on Twitter that Russia is starting to withdraw large numbers of troops. 

[Grim Up North 3,725]

This is just a political situation manufactured to get Boris and Joe out of tough situations at home. 
 

War averted - well done NATO - now what were we all talking about before this happened? Oh I can’t remember let’s talk about melting ice caps or summat.

[MortalCaso 1,625]

On 15/02/2022 at 04:30, MortalCaso said:

Reports on Twitter that Russia is starting to withdraw large numbers of troops. 

Everything now shows Russia is adding not subtracting troops from the border with Ukraine. In fact, multiple Ukrainian towns were shelled last night (which isn't entirely unsual). What makes it unique is the sheer number and amount within a 24 hour period. 

 

Everything points to a bad time to live in Ukraine. I'd predict after the Olympics, as they promised China, things shall kick into high gear. 

[prussianblue 1,027]

Russia is currently kicking up a fuss at the UN about the Ukrainians amping up attacks on the separatists, saying that they amount to genocide of the Russian population. Meanwhile there are moves in the duma to recognise the breakaway republics as independent states.

With my amateur geopolitics hat on I'm guessing the running order will be:
1. Russia will denounce the actions of Ukrainian army and state against the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics, and pledge to protect the lives and rights of the Russian population.

2. Russia will formally recognise the independence of the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics.

3. Rapid and heavy Russian military intervention to support the republics in asserting their independence. This may involve pushing the frontlines back to ensure that the entire territory of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts is freed from Ukrainian control. 

4. After brief independence and following referenda with large majorities, the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics will ask to join the Russian Federation.
5. Formal Russian annexation of the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics.

An unknown here would be whether they would care to incite any further breakaway republics in the majority Russian-speaking areas in southern Ukraine, which they could apply a rapid version of the above process to, or let them struggle on as frozen conflict zones (just like the Donbas) for a couple of years before a repeat of the current crisis.

Another unknown would be whether they would also go for regime change in Kyiv, which runs the risk of hardly anyone recognising the new government and generating far stiffer resistance in the rest of Ukraine. I don't doubt they could seize the city rapidly, but installing a functioning long-term government is another matter. The current government would probably just flee to Lviv and rally the support of the western rump.

[MortalCaso 1,625]

11 minutes ago, prussianblue said:

--snip

1. Russia will denounce the actions of Ukrainian army and state against the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics, and pledge to protect the lives and rights of the Russian population.

2. Russia will formally recognise the independence of the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics.

3. Rapid and heavy Russian military intervention to support the republics in asserting their independence. This may involve pushing the frontlines back to ensure that the entire territory of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts is freed from Ukrainian control. 

4. After brief independence and following referenda with large majorities, the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics will ask to join the Russian Federation.
5. Formal Russian annexation of the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics.
 

---snip

 

I think this is fairly close to what happens. What will be interesting is how the West responds. Compared to Crimea in 2014, they have obviously kicked the PR game up quite a bit. I'm inclined they do 'nothing' besides strongly worded letters and a few slaps on the wrist via sanctions. 

 

This seems like a snowball effect, as with Georgian conflict and Crimea before. What is to stop Russia from taking complete control of Belarus or Moldova in the future? The U.S/NATO clearly don't have a game-plan to prevent the slow rebirth of the U.S.S.R (proxy-nations buffering mother Russia).

 

What seems obvious is this won't cause WW3. Western media loves fear-mongering it though!

[prussianblue 1,027]

24 minutes ago, MortalCaso said:

 

This seems like a snowball effect, as with Georgian conflict and Crimea before. What is to stop Russia from taking complete control of Belarus or Moldova in the future? The U.S/NATO clearly don't have a game-plan to prevent the slow rebirth of the U.S.S.R (proxy-nations buffering mother Russia).

 

 

Belarus is a funny one. Lukashenko has kept Russia at arms length in some respects, to preserve his independent rule, but the two states are already highly aligned and integrated, even moreso since Russia propped him up following the disputed election and protests. Socially and economically Belarus is a quasi-Soviet throwback, so I imagine the idea of actual unification might be welcomed by some. Maybe Lukashenko's successor will be less independently-minded.

 

I think if Moldova was seriously threatened reunification with Romania would be rapid. Safety in the arms of the EU-member state they were annexed from 80 years ago. It would entail giving up Transnistria forever, but that's just formalising the status quo.

[gcreptile 10,967]

Things are heating up right now. Obviously, Russia didn't attack last wednesday as foretold by the USA, BUT..... the way things are going now, it's going to happen soon. Yes, I believe it now. I'm thinking of right after the Olympics (a Russian gesture to China not to mess with their games). And by right after, I mean the minute it's over.

[MortalCaso 1,625]

3 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

Things are heating up right now. Obviously, Russia didn't attack last wednesday as foretold by the USA, BUT..... the way things are going now, it's going to happen soon. Yes, I believe it now. I'm thinking of right after the Olympics (a Russian gesture to China not to mess with their games). And by right after, I mean the minute it's over.

Evacuations, constant shelling, and even an assassination attempt...

 

Does not look good to be an Eastern Ukrainian

[The Old Crem 3,583]

I think it will end with nuclear war. Maybe not this  year but sometime in the next decade or two

[Tower1 93]

These are fake crisis amplified by media. The real crisis are protests in Canada, Germany, France, Australia etc. and economic crisis in the future.

[Sir Creep 7,070]

.

[The Old Crem 3,583]

Sounds like invasion tomorrow or Sunday. 
 

Cup teams in March could be worth a lot of points if they filed with ‘notable’ Ukrainians.  

[YoungWillz 21,037]

I am laughing out loud at the faux "leadership" of Johnson and Truss (and, dear gawd, the ironically named thicko Cleverly) on Ukraine.

 

Crimea annexed and British citizens murdered on our soil. Any and all the measures implemented then have not been used. Not one unexplained wealth order. No return of Russian donations to the Conservatives.

 

Suddenly with the prospect of war, our finger-wagging might strain our hand, but it certainly strains credibility. For years the Government has been asked for more action on the London Laundromat of dirty money, now we will most certainly, definitely, maybe do something about it. And given no repercussions have ever been suffered for long by Russia (and certainly nothing they can't live with) and given the history of direct lies by this leadership, can we believe anything we are being told?

 

Not a statesman on that front bench. Not one.

 

(I have been John Major, leave a tip in the jar on your way out).

[gcreptile 10,967]

I'm so distracted by the Russian Security Council meeting right now. I think they're going to recognize the "Luhansk" and "Donezk people's Republic" in 30 minutes.

Shit will hit the fan.