Coronavirus death toll 2020

[Charlotte's Controller 195]

Back to the original question, does the counting start at the end of 2020 or when the pandemic is considered to be over? Nine of us have an interest. With hindsight perhaps the government could have considered us as potential advisers. There have been many other worldwide experts, politicians, bleach investors and people with opinions who have been well short of the mark.

 

I would refer you back to the Christmas lecture on maths which provided a very good model of disease transfer from about 22 mins in the video. Note that this was transmitted about a month before the Covid 19 was an issue. After this is an interesting item on how Liverpool use maths to predict goal success, this shows that it is not the footballers who have the brains, why was I not informed of these jobs in careers at school. please note this does not work for Man U and Man C because of referee bias.

 

 

 

 

This video was originally highlighted on page 1 of this thread.

[Skinny kiltrunner 553]

Russia examines ventilator type sent to U.S. after fires kill 6

If that's a Russian ventilator, I'd hate to see their enema kits.

[paddyfool 379]

Thank you for that further analysis, Miracle Aligner - no argument here.  

[paddyfool 379]

12 minutes ago, Charlotte's Controller said:

Back to the original question, does the counting start at the end of 2020 or when the pandemic is considered to be over?

 

For the purposes of the poll, I was planning to compare against the count at the age of 2020.

[Charlotte's Controller 195]

Poor English, apologies the count for 2020? 

[Miracle Aligner 249]

19 minutes ago, paddyfool said:

 

For the purposes of the poll, I was planning to compare against the count at the age of 2020.

 

10 minutes ago, Charlotte's Controller said:

Poor English, apologies the count for 2020? 

 

To translate the spakanglish for everyone else... 

 

Paddyfool intends to use the end of 2020 for the purposes of the poll. 

 

CC wishes to clarify that Paddyfool means to say that he'll calculated to the end of 2020.

[Miracle Aligner 249]

1 hour ago, Miracle Aligner said:

 

This is the current Top 20

 

1918	715,246
1891	696,490
1900	695,867
1899	685,510
1976	680,799
1895	676,110
1979	675,576
1972	673,938
1893	673,722
1940	673,253
1985	670,656
1973	669,692
1974	667,359
1978	667,177
1915	666,322
1890	665,758
1982	662,801
1975	662,477
1980	661,519
1892	661,273

 

 

To put some context we had some of the lowest death rates in recorded years only 5-10 years ago; so given our aging population; even without the pandemic we'd be expecting sharp continued rises in death totals. Following on from that adding the pandemic in and it seems likely we'll challenge the Top 10. However it's worth noting if you add 50k to the 5 year average you still don't enter the top 10 (598703 + 50,000  = 648,703) or even top 20.

 

2018 -  616,014 (64th)

2017 -  607,172 (72nd)

2016 - 597,206  (85th)

2015 - 602,782  (78th)

2014 - 570,341 (111th)

2013 - 576,458 (104th)

2012 - 569,024  (112th)

2011 - 552,232 (126th)

2010 - 561,666 (119th)

 

(of 132 years in total in the dataset)

 

Deaths were already on the way up prior to this compared to 5 years ago - 

 

There's probably a dead pool in these stats but considering the final tally doesn't come out until November 2021 for this year.... 

[Charlotte's Controller 195]

53 minutes ago, Miracle Aligner said:

 

 

To translate the spakanglish for everyone else... 

 

Paddyfool intends to use the end of 2020 for the purposes of the poll. 

 

CC wishes to clarify that Paddyfool means to say that he'll calculated to the end of 2020.

 

F**king pandemic here, I had calculated to the end of 2020.

[Miracle Aligner 249]

1 minute ago, Charlotte's Controller said:

 

F**king pandemic here, I had calculated to the end of 2020.

 

The pandemic will last most of 2020 if not 2021 anyway, get off your fucking grump stool you tosspot. 

[Youth in Asia 1,087]

According to WHO it will last for 4-5 years

[paddyfool 379]

12 hours ago, Miracle Aligner said:

 

 

To translate the spakanglish for everyone else... 

 

Paddyfool intends to use the end of 2020 for the purposes of the poll. 

 

CC wishes to clarify that Paddyfool means to say that he'll calculated to the end of 2020.

 

Arg, yes, end of 2020. Apologies.

[Prophet 251]

5 hours ago, Youth in Asia said:

According to WHO it will last for 4-5 years

You can't really trust the WHO. They were wrong with all of their predictions.

[the_engineer 1,415]

8 minutes ago, Prophet said:

You can't really trust the WHO. They were wrong with all of their predictions.

 

Pinball Wizard was ahead of its time though.

[The Old Crem 3,588]

Lebanon has had to reintroduce restrictions after cases rose again.

[The Old Crem 3,588]

20 hours ago, Prophet said:

South Korea only had 26 new cases today. That's not a second wave, that's only panic by the media and so-called experts who were wrong with all of their doomsday predictions until now.

Still forced over 2 thousand business to shut for a while and is a further economic and social disruption.

[Lard Bazaar 3,799]

On 10/05/2020 at 18:40, Lard Bazaar said:

This post did not get anywhere the recognition it deserved. 

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,218]

1 hour ago, Lard Bazaar said:

This post did not get anywhere the recognition it deserved. 

….because it was shite.

Not up to your usual low standards, Lardy.

[msc 18,443]

Oh we've all been there. Posting something and thinking "this is hilarious", then check back later and it got tumbleweed.

 

Then another day you post some really daft joke or other and come back to a dozen likes!

[Lard Bazaar 3,799]

3 hours ago, Lord Fellatio Nelson said:

….because it was shite.

Not up to your usual low standards, Lardy.

Fuck off that was some of my best work AND it took me ages to work out how to change the words!

[Miracle Aligner 249]

1 hour ago, Lard Bazaar said:

Fuck off that was some of my best work AND it took me ages to work out how to change the words!

 

All that time and you couldn't even find the right fucking shade of yellow with a colour picker.

 

U

[Lard Bazaar 3,799]

6 hours ago, Miracle Aligner said:

 

All that time and you couldn't even find the right fucking shade of yellow with a colour picker.

 

Under-rated though, best post I’ve ever seen, you’re amazing!

Thanks 

[paddyfool 379]

20 hours ago, Prophet said:

You can't really trust the WHO. They were wrong with all of their predictions.

 

Are you calling them a false prophet? ;-)

 

Seriously, though, although the Wuhan authorities managed to pull the wool over the WHO's eyes in early January, before January was up, the WHO were correctly calling this a global health emergency. If it took some Western gvts until mid to late March to make any serious response, that's on them. 

[Genfærd 452]

Woah... my country, Denmark, at 0,deaths the last 24 hours. 

 

Got to admit. Days at work (teaching) is way more casual. We follow guidelines but arent strict or even nervous. 

[The Old Crem 3,588]

19 minutes ago, Genfærd said:

Woah... my country, Denmark, at 0,deaths the last 24 hours. 

 

Got to admit. Days at work (teaching) is way more casual. We follow guidelines but arent strict or even nervous. 

Good to hear. I gather 137 people are still in hospital with it through with presumably some of those critical .

 

Are you in a city or somewhere more rural?

[Genfærd 452]

1 hour ago, The Old Crem said:

Good to hear. I gather 137 people are still in hospital with it through with presumably some of those critical .

 

Are you in a city or somewhere more rural?

 

Yea 137 and 32 of those are in ICU. https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-02-27-nyeste-corona-tal-fra-danmark-og-verden-saa-mange-er-smittede-doede-og-indlagte

 

We're doing really well here in Denmark and loads of stuff are opening again. Heck, even our top divisions in football is starting in 2 weeks time. 

 

I live in a city but the school I teach at is rural. We're still washing our hands several times, and the kids clean their table after they've eaten. They sit apart but shall now only keep 1 metres of distance now (which is near damn impossible). I mean, when they fall, they need help and when they are sad, they need a hug. 

 

Oddly enough, I often forget we're in the middle of pandemic. Things, out and about, just seems like normal now. No one is wearing masks, no one seems nervous or anxious and while we do our best to keep distance, it stills looks and feels like we're back before the virus outbreak.