Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

[MrWonderful 481]

4 hours ago, drol said:

That Joe Biden is completely demented! He just picked a recently deceased wrestler as his designated VP. 

The Ugandan Giant!  

 

[Toast 16,140]

11 hours ago, Kenny McCormick said:

 Surely you guys must have girlfriends or something? (apart from Quim Reaper for obvious reasons)

 

Most of the blokes on here are gay, haven't you noticed?

 

[The Great Cornholio 902]

4 minutes ago, Toast said:

 

Most of the blokes on here are gay, haven't you noticed?

 

Never said I had an issue with it. Dont care either, I only poke fun when Quim is trying so desperately to avoid questions. 

 

With that being said, I take it you butter both sides of your bread? (if you forgive the obvious pun, because you're called Toast)

[Toast 16,140]

21 minutes ago, Kenny McCormick said:

Never said I had an issue with it. Dont care either, I only poke fun when Quim is trying so desperately to avoid questions.

 

I didn't suggest that you "had an issue with it". 

You said " Surely you guys must have girlfriends or something? (apart from Quim Reaper for obvious reasons)" which implies that most of the guys are straight.
 

Quote

With that being said, I take it you butter both sides of your bread? (if you forgive the obvious pun, because you're called Toast)

 

 

Very amusing, but not really germane to the topic as I am not a guy.  Sorry to disappoint, but I'm boringly hetero.

[YoungWillz 21,044]

So as a disinterested observer, the Republican National Convention has been an absolute hoot this year. I'm guessing we are going to have to put many of the speakers in 21st American Sitcoms thread from now on.

 

I have been unable to discern an actual policy position. There's the usual Republican shtick about pro-life, guns etc, but at least 4 years ago there was a Wall, there was bringing American jobs back, blah de blah. But this year...meh. Just 4 more years of Trump sitting on his ass [sic] watching TV, tweeting and playing golf. (that's not to say that we have had a host of speakers talking about how he's worked for the American people every day so far!).

 

Last night was my favourite. It started off with a political statement (wrapped up in what may have been a religious segment) by a Rabbi, defending Trump's record. Charlottesville, anyone? Trump is well known for saying those fine neo-Nazis who called for Jewish extermination, then back-tracking, then re-affirming that view. No amount of embassies in Jerusalem outweigh that vile proclamation from a US President.

 

Then there was the logger who talked about how well-managed forests in Minnesota didn't catch fire, unlike those Democrat-controlled trees in California. Hilarious, given the amount of snow Minnesota gets - maybe the weather has something to do with it? Even Trump has declared a national emergency in California, something that passed this speaker by, apparently.

 

Oh, then we had a whole segment on the patriots who protested for women's rights, particularly the right to vote. (Helluva lot of emphasis on TEA PARTY in bold!). They were called heroes and patriots by way of their peaceful protest. By a Republican Party who deals with peaceful protesters today by tear-gassing them, sending Navy helicopters in to blow them off their feet, and building the only successful wall in the last 3 and a half years between the Whitehouse and the protesters. But no mention even of those protesters from recent history like Vivian and Lewis who have now died - but all the while quoting Martin Luther King Jr. Oh yes, and a couple of nights ago we had the prospective Republican for Baltimore again effectively calling it a shithole.

 

Then on came some person talking about America's (I kid you not) "God-given right to carry guns". Hmm, guns - made by humans. Right to carry - enshrined in a document written by humans. Yeah, we are only pro-life unless you get in our way. Well, then came on Kayleigh McEnany, talking about her family history of breast cancer due to a family gene mutation, resulting in her having a double mastectomy. Now sad as that is, if she's a true Republican she really shouldn't have interfered with that God-given gene mutation? Or is that different, you know, just for wealthy people who can afford the medical bills, that God who is obviously trying to tell your family something doesn't matter?

 

There was a lot of flag waving, then Pence came on, seemingly talking about Covid like it was all over and millions and millions of jobs will suddenly miraculously re-appear because Trump will be re-elected, and thumping on about Law and Order while countless Trump affiliates are in jail or under charge, receiving light sentences and - oh look at all those pardons! Yet Trump's been sitting on his ass [sic] watching TV and tweeting and playing golf, while escalating tensions by selectively sending in the troops to Democrat cities only, then blaming them for the heightened disasters in those cities.

 

Then there were all the others in between painting Trump as the opposite to what he is - apparently he respects women and children ("Good Luck Ghislane, by the way!") and is pro-minority and pro-voting.

 

I laughed all the way through. Bless poor Donny though, apparently the ratings are terrible. And let's face it, at the end of the Convention, that's really all he is interested in.

 

[YoungWillz 21,044]

Is the American voting system broken or something?

 

Trump says vote twice just to make sure your vote is counted. Now here if you get a postal vote, you can't vote in person because you are not on the list of voters eligible to vote in person. Surely that is basic common sense?

 

Or is it - Trump's henchmen being sent to polling stations and pointing guns at officials to allow Donny's supporters to vote in person, whether they have voted by mail or not?

[En Passant 3,741]

2 hours ago, YoungWillz said:

Is the American voting system broken or something?

 

Yes. Funnily enough quite well explained exactly how in todays Graun. (Actually given the time of posting, yesterdays, but w/e)

 

We have a broken system too in my view, i.e. any system where the most votes don't necessarily elect the ruling party/leader is by definition borked. Ah well.

[YoungWillz 21,044]

Ginsburg's death changes the whole complexion of the election imo.

 

Push back Republicans to the conservative side of the Court and right leaning independents.

 

Christ.

[Windsor 2,233]

7 hours ago, YoungWillz said:

Ginsburg's death changes the whole complexion of the election imo.

 

Push back Republicans to the conservative side of the Court and right leaning independents.

 

Christ.

It seems the human garbage that is Mitch McConnell plans to hold a vote on Trumps nominee, even though he held back Obama’s one for over 200 days because it was an election year.

 

He really is a cunt. Perhaps a bigger cunt than Trump.

[Sir Creep 7,070]

Except holding a vote would be pointless beyond its political cache, which would also be pointless.

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,342]

On 12/08/2020 at 11:59, Toast said:

 

Most of the blokes on here are gay, haven't you noticed?

 

It's an interesting phenomenon!

I wonder why gay men are disproportionately represented amongst deadpoolers/deathlist forumers?

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,342]

Hi @Joey Russ

 

I saw your post on the Ruth Bader Ginsburg thread and decided to ask for your thoughts and insight on USA politics here so as not to clutter up Ruth's thread. You seem really insightful and knowledgeable about  your countrys politics so I am genuinely interested in your thoughts. 

 

Do you think there is much scope for any surprise  states flipping in both the presidential race and the Senate race? Al Gores home state Tennesse for example ?Would that be outside the realms of possibility?

 

Could you see Ohio becoming a solid blue state again?

Also is there anything noteworthy happening in this years state governors elections or any possible surprises?

I also understand that there are elections at state level for state Senate and state house of representatives. How important are these particular  'smaller' elections to the American public?

Finally do you not thing it might be possible that the democratic senator for Alabama  Doug  who beat the controversial Republican Roy Moore  might have helped acclimatise enough of the states voters to his party to have a decent outside shot at winning reelection?

 

Hope  you don't mind indulging me!  It would be sincerely appreciated. 

 

Cheers Gooseberry 

[Joey Russ 7,227]

3 minutes ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

Do you think there is much scope for any surprise  states flipping in both the presidential race and the Senate race? Al Gores home state Tennesse for example ?Would that be outside the realms of possibility?

 

Could you see Ohio becoming a solid blue state again?

Also is there anything noteworthy happening in this years state governors elections or any possible surprises?

I also understand that there are elections at state level for state Senate and state house of representatives. How important are these particular  'smaller' elections to the American public?

Finally do you not thing it might be possible that the democratic senator for Alabama  Doug  who beat the controversial Republican Roy Moore  might have helped acclimatise enough of the states voters to his party to have a decent outside shot at winning reelection?

I think all the states that has potential to flip are states that are considered swingy last election, minus Colorado, Maine, New Mexico, and Virginia (pretty solid for dems at this point). Swing states being Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine's 2nd district, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska's 2nd district, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. I'd be completely stunned if any of the other states flip. If there were states that did have potential to flip out of the blue (just as hypothetical, I'm not predicting this will happen), for dem flips it would probably be Alaska and South Carolina as both were within 15% points last time. On the other hand, apart from the 4 states I removed from being competitive that were competitive last time, the republicans next best option would probably be Oregon. Again though, I'd be amazed if any of those states flipped. 

Ohio was never solid blue, at least on the presidential level. And unfortunately Ohio is slowly slipping away from the dems. I do think it's possible for the democrats to win this time, but come 2024 or 2028 that might not be the case anymore. And Republicans are definitely the favorite to win Ohio. You could probably compare Ohio to Delaware and Missouri (in the past those two were considered bellwhether states, but eventually slipped into the democratic and republican leans they have today). 

State level can be quite important. If you control the state house, senate and the governorship, more stuff is able to pass on a state level. On the other hand, a more divided house means gridlock is likely. I would definitely take the state races seriously like the federal elections. 

And as for Alabama, do I think it's possible for Doug Jones to win? Sure, I wouldn't completely write it off. But the chances of him winning are really marginal and him winning would be such an underdog story. Thing is, Alabama is on the back end of Republican leaning states (that is Alabama votes for Republicans by a larger margin than states typically characterized as ruby red like Kansas or Mississippi), and with how partisan the country has become, Jones would really have to outrun Trump's margin by a huge amount if he wants any chance of winning. And Jones only made the senate cause he was up against a fucking pedophile. And he won by only a point. I think Jones winning Alabama is probably more likely than the dems beating Mitch in Kentucky, but that isn't really saying much at all. Tuberville is the massive favorite to win that senate race and there's no way to go around that. 

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,342]

2 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

I think all the states that has potential to flip are states that are considered swingy last election, minus Colorado, Maine, New Mexico, and Virginia (pretty solid for dems at this point). Swing states being Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine's 2nd district, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska's 2nd district, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. I'd be completely stunned if any of the other states flip. If there were states that did have potential to flip out of the blue (just as hypothetical, I'm not predicting this will happen), for dem flips it would probably be Alaska and South Carolina as both were within 15% points last time. On the other hand, apart from the 4 states I removed from being competitive that were competitive last time, the republicans next best option would probably be Oregon. Again though, I'd be amazed if any of those states flipped. 

Ohio was never solid blue, at least on the presidential level. And unfortunately Ohio is slowly slipping away from the dems. I do think it's possible for the democrats to win this time, but come 2024 or 2028 that might not be the case anymore. And Republicans are definitely the favorite to win Ohio. You could probably compare Ohio to Delaware and Missouri (in the past those two were considered bellwhether states, but eventually slipped into the democratic and republican leans they have today). 

State level can be quite important. If you control the state house, senate and the governorship, more stuff is able to pass on a state level. On the other hand, a more divided house means gridlock is likely. I would definitely take the state races seriously like the federal elections. 

And as for Alabama, do I think it's possible for Doug Jones to win? Sure, I wouldn't completely write it off. But the chances of him winning are really marginal and him winning would be such an underdog story. Thing is, Alabama is on the back end of Republican leaning states (that is Alabama votes for Republicans by a larger margin than states typically characterized as ruby red like Kansas or Mississippi), and with how partisan the country has become, Jones would really have to outrun Trump's margin by a huge amount if he wants any chance of winning. And Jones only made the senate cause he was up against a fucking pedophile. And he won by only a point. I think Jones winning Alabama is probably more likely than the dems beating Mitch in Kentucky, but that isn't really saying much at all. Tuberville is the massive favorite to win that senate race and there's no way to go around that. 

Thank you very much  for your thoughtful  reply. 

 

Why do you think Tennessee has gradually  moved away from the dems? I recall reading that it really hurt Al Gore that his home state that he was senator for many years voted for Bush in 2000. Is it one of those states that would be classed as part of the bible belt and also quite big on gun rights?

 

I am aware that the demographics of Arizona are thought by political experts  to be gradually  moving in favour of the Democrats  long term but is the same thing happening in Alaska  or is that more an anti Trump thing why dems are modestly improving their chances there?

 

I was surprised and pleasantly so to read that Vermont has a Republican governor who is very liberal on gay rights and legalising marijuana!

American politics fascinates me!

[msc 18,448]

5 hours ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

Thank you very much  for your thoughtful  reply. 

 

Why do you think Tennessee has gradually  moved away from the dems? I recall reading that it really hurt Al Gore that his home state that he was senator for many years voted for Bush in 2000. Is it one of those states that would be classed as part of the bible belt and also quite big on gun rights?

 

I am aware that the demographics of Arizona are thought by political experts  to be gradually  moving in favour of the Democrats  long term but is the same thing happening in Alaska  or is that more an anti Trump thing why dems are modestly improving their chances there?

 

I was surprised and pleasantly so to read that Vermont has a Republican governor who is very liberal on gay rights and legalising marijuana!

American politics fascinates me!

 

iirc Alaska has a history of punishing incumbents but I'd have it currently at C level for Senate and Presidency (ie it might change on a fantastic night for Biden and co but don't bet on it) which is the lowest vaguely credible level.

 

Arizona's seeming shift is fascinating. John McCain wrote all about it in his book, predicting it'd take a decade, and if things go as polling suggests (so you know, caution there), it'd have taken 2 years instead. Perhaps he was a dam holding back the demographic tide. Also, if McSally loses (and tbf she seems the most doomed senator in the country after Doug Jones), she'll have handed both seats in her state to the Democrat inside 24 months. A remarkable feat!

 

Tennessee not known to me, but here's a local piece from 2018 on it - seems the usual story, one party dominate, seen as establishment, voters get old and die off while other party speaks to newer voters, primarily in rural areas. Very downfall of Scottish Labour.

 

https://eu.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/tn-elections/2018/11/09/tennessee-democrats-soul-search-again-after-hopes-spoiled-another-disappointing-election/1929087002/

 

At this point the best shot of a "surprise" would be Iowa because Trump has really fucked off people there by ignoring the big hurricane disaster they had last month, or so I hear from Iowans. But again, not in any way a certainty.

[The Old Crem 3,602]

Will filling her seat help the republicans more or less than putting the seat as part of the election.

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,342]

@Joey Russ @msc

 

https://mississippitoday.org/2020/09/21/new-poll-democrat-mike-espy-within-1-of-gop-sen-cindy-hyde-smith/

 

Have you seen this about the senate election race in Mississippi? Very very close if this information is accurate  for a state that is deemed  solid Republican .

Within 1%!

[Joey Russ 7,227]

29 minutes ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

@Joey Russ @msc

 

https://mississippitoday.org/2020/09/21/new-poll-democrat-mike-espy-within-1-of-gop-sen-cindy-hyde-smith/

 

Have you seen this about the senate election race in Mississippi? Very very close if this information is accurate  for a state that is deemed  solid Republican .

Within 1%!

Basically, I’ll believe it when I see it. 

[Banana 859]

13 hours ago, The Old Crem said:

Will filling her seat help the republicans more or less than putting the seat as part of the election.

 

If they get the spot on the SC, the presidency basically doesn't matter (unless the Dems actually fucking do something about it)

[The Old Crem 3,602]

Looking like Trump might well get the vacine approved by election day - removes any real chance of Biden winning if he does.

[The Great Cornholio 902]

1 hour ago, The Old Crem said:

Looking like Trump might well get the vacine approved by election day - removes any real chance of Biden winning if he does.

Well curing COVID was one of Biden's promises, next to stopping earthquakes and 'good times ahead'

[torbrexbones 717]

Trump has conceded the result by saying that he is ready to contest it in the Supreme Court.

[TQR 14,394]

Hilary Clinton, I’m sure practically everyone will agree, was not a good Presidential candidate. But, in retrospect, she was bang on about Trump.

 

[arghton 6,735]

Triden, a being that has Trump's body and three Biden heads.

 

Honestly, I have no idea. We'll see.

[The Great Cornholio 902]

3 hours ago, The Quim Reaper said:

Hilary Clinton, I’m sure practically everyone will agree, was not a good Presidential candidate. But, in retrospect, she was bang on about Trump.

 

Thats the strength that the left possesses, they are bang on about their opponents. Labour is bang on about everything the Tories do wrong, and they are right almost every time. Similar for the Dems, Tulsi Gabbard for example was bang on about Trump regarding how he was just full of it on the economy and the military - all the stuff he claimed to care about was all bull. She was the moderate choice IMO and I would've happily supported her. Personally, despite my dislike for Tories/Trump, I'm not going to sell out on my beliefs by doing a full 180 and support anyone who isnt Tory/Trump.