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Think this has a couple of twists and turns left, including the odd non-QO turning into a QO. Warning: Massive Post incoming (Don't ask me how my evening/night was, it was weird, and the creation of this post was interrupted several times): Let me just say that DI has, in my opinion, a research edge this "season". His roster of 2018 names is uuh.. strong and stable... and carries him from one strong performance to the other. I can only keep up here because my method works better with bigger teams. Otherwise, my performances this year are, well, lacking. Except for the Generation Game, ha! But then, I might have had a bit of an edge back then in 2016/17 (just bad decisions in the DDP 2017 which were still enough for 2 Top 20 finishes). Anyway.... Let me take DI's list of differentials and put my own opinion on/at/into it (spilling a bit of my own deeper research here): Me: George Alagiah - could become a hit, late in the year, when we suddenly get a "quits treatment" message in November. Stephen Beer - freak pick that I always manage to sneak in somewhere. Last news were in January 18 as far as I can tell. Troubled person + overweight : Still..eh... However, if that one goes, it's an almost-knock-out. John Cocks - They said "he should be dead", but then it's "only" kidney cancer which I don't have that high on my target list anymore. Wasted joker in the theme team league? Possible non-obit? dicey Noel Conway - hmm, possible, from the looks of it, kind of worse off than Stephen Hawking ever was, with the breathing mask. Also old, so weak muscles, body collapsing. 2020 is out of reach, but 2019? Ben Dover - deeper research: was visited by his children last week - in Spain. I assume it's not a hospital. So doing ok. Not the best option Stuart Fraser - JoeyRuss probably researched him more than me, and is pessimistic for him (that is Joey, optimistic for Fraser then). So not likely, also obit in question Zak Gleeson - wasted pick Jorie Graham - good chance, if not this year, then maybe next year's XXXX (who was that female UK author with lung cancer, writing extensively about her plight?). Kind of like Conway Savage - silence => latter half of the year hit Sacheen Littlefeather - didn't look too bad on some twitter photo a couple of months ago. Things can go down fast though. Have a feeling a hit is here. Anna Pavord - still active. However, her last treatment cycle already broke her down completely. Another recurrence is likely a quick death. And a couple of months are left Genesis P-Orridge - was on stage a while ago, so never been at death's door, so far. Leukemia can strike fast though, but I have to admit, that in this case, my instincts were wrong until now. Still wouldn't rule it out, expected them dead by now though. Lindy Remigino - maybe??? Though before Conway Savage it would have been for naught, because DI's hit with John McCain would still leave him ahead by 2 pts with a Remigino QO. Now he would be a nice extra, to counter Woodward or Gascoine Holly Rowe - in remission, and just looking to robust. Ok, the robust/slim theory led me astray quite a bit with regard to Leah Bracknell. But no, she's not going away. Steve Smith - His absolutely dreadful appearance made me pick him here as a differential. But well, Pete Frates also recovered from such a state. And the obit might be unsure, because he's only the like third-most relevant Steve Smith in football or something like that Valeri Spiridonov - high risk/ high reward. I forgot his blog address, yes, I even forgot the platform that hosted it. No idea how he is doing. A knockout punch if it happens. Statistically, he has made it unusually far. Still obitable? But the risk/reward ratio made him a no-brainer for me. Next year may be different. And let's search for that blog... Mohammad Usman - wasted pick - was a Mirror or bust thing. In this 50 people pool, the cancer mum/dad/boy thing will likely lead to a few non obits. Those that hit though, are golden. But maybe you realize that I've switched out some of them. Shameless would have had a disappointing result this year. Anyway, this and Zak Gleeson's non-QO I totally deserve. Switching some of them out was a big concession, I cut my losses. Marieke Vervoort - Oh dear... now a ramble... without Conway Savage, this would have been DI's knock-out hit. Now I'd not be all that much behind. She's 19 years younger, and DI was about 30pts ahead, so I'd have to get 50 pts from somewhere. Jorie Graham would do it. Littlefeather not quite, but maybe with Remigino or really anyone else... As for my thoughts about her dying - who knows... Obviously have to dive deep into her psyche in December, if she's alive then. Statistically, the pick is still sound. Liam Miller was the better joker though, which however is only totally clear in hindsight, as Miller could well have lived for longer, considering his age. Why didn't I joker her here? Can't recall, maybe investment diversification? Anyway, I don't want a trophy-less year. Ok, I got the ABC deadpool. But it had fewer entries back then. It was unsure then that relatively new member Wormfarmer would turn out to be such an organized, dedicated forum member? The novelty possibly kept a few people away, plus the first come-first serve rule, which I exploited well, but not too well, as Gilbert and Stefansson last(ed) longer. On the other hand, 2nd placed Wormfarmer posted before me, and I was lucky he wasn't yet attuned to the forum hive mind (think he missed Errol Christie?). Props to 3rd placed Zsa Zsa's Leg though. Highly underrated performance, top hit with xxxTentacion. Dawn Wilson - have to dig deeply here. She might be dead already, last twitter entry in May. I hope it's not the deciding hit. But yeah, have her in my B-Team because she seemed the lazy way to keep the unique hit streak going. Obvious obit risk. Reggie Wright Jr. - Eh, who knows with these gangsters. Terminally ill? Well, could be! If so, many will wonder "Why didn't I pick him". If not, I will wonder "How could I be so stupid". Death Impends: Maartin Allcock - Didn't know about him when the news came up. I mean, I saw DDT's post, but only took notice of him when people picked him. I think it's a little early though. Made it public in June, has plans and still defiant. Might very well go down, possibly more than a 50% or even 60% chance to die before 2020. Have a feeling it's too early though. Colin Butts - hmm, no. I mean if they made another series, or some indirect reference, but probably not. Not likely in a "we lost" at the end of the year. DJ Casper - yeah, knew he was doing ok, hence I didn't pick him anywhere this year. Now "officially" in remission. Johnny Clegg - can't rule him out, definitely earns extremely heavy consideration for 2019 if he makes it. Just slightly too active, slightly too optimistic. And not with the head in the clouds, as he already faces the end with a "final tour". Jill Gascoine - good low-scoring pick. Her and Woodward are a bit "clash of the concepts". DI goes little by little, I go all or nothing. Think the better DDP strategy became obvious this year. Here it's an open question. Think Gascoine is slowly moving into "overdue" territory Steve Gleason - the new kid news came out of nowhere. Can he be that big of an asshole to die before it's born? Or is he the even bigger asshole to die with the child barely alive? My hunch is that he is stable enough. Looks bigger than Ricksen as well. Maybe he found a way to manage it, the statistics are bad though, and have been since last year. Valerie Harper - could always die... or last another 5 years. Twin pick with Clive James. Worth 39 pts, part of the little-by-little strategy. I think we'll know when the end is coming though. Cynthia Heimel - that Guardian article just didn't come... The Independent had an obit, but noone followed. Was she too sex-positive in the #metoo era for the Guardian? That's my theory. Bad timing, DI doesn't deserve that miss. Bill Heine - actually, doing appropriately well. Not one for 2018. Pretty sure of that. William Perry - let me google him for the first time in half a year. Signs autographs..ok, probably a bad pick, but every old wrestler is a target for a heart attack and/or liver failure. Think it's rather unlikely though. Simon Ricketts - On paper, DI's best choice? Small tip: The obit might only appear in a blog form from the Guardian Night team. Not even sure if the blog format counts as a QO. He did win some blogging award lately though and the next cancer attack will kill him within days. Nanci Ryder - Apparently not too public anymore? I guess not looking as bad as Steve Smith, but pretty much comparable in risk/reward ratio I think Budi Tek - somewhat miraculously still alive and active a month ago or so. Things can go down quickly though. Little by little... Ian Toothill - yeah, in my opinion the one time DI really grabbed into the FFBI box, and got punished for it. Unfair odds. Don't see an obit here anymore. With Heimel neither, by the way, and now her outfit closed down. Marieke Vervoort - see above Mike Willesee - here, we can come to an agreement, hit for DI here, getting him slightly ahead of me, but also a big boost in the Theme Team league for me. Obviously I want to win both though, ha! But yes, Willesee recently hospitalised for a fall. When cancer spreads into the bones, they get weak and are easy to break. Think the most likely hit, DI is going to have, better than Ricketts, but fewer points. Joanne Woodward - bad health, could be dead any day now or in 5 years. No, more like 3 years. Good pick for his strategy. Leaves me with 16 possibilities, and DI with 13. Matching them up: Steve Smith - Steve Gleason (the one lacks obitability, the other lacks frailty) (draw) Sacheen Littlefeather - Mike Willesee (terminal cancer septuagenarians) (draw) George Alagiah - Maartin Allcock (middle-aged more likely 2019 types) (draw - some of you may differ) Jorie Graham - Johnny Clegg (silence from her, deadlier cancer from him) (draw) Lindy Remigino - Budi Tek (the one is a safe death but considerably unsafe obit, the other is a moderately likely death whose time must be coming to an end with a dicey but less-than-Remigino-dicey obit) (draw) Ben Dover - Bill Heine (think both are doing too well) (draw) Noel Conway - Nanci Ryder (pretty evenly matched actually) (draw) Stephen Beer - William Refrigerator Perry (If I hadn't just googled Perry, he would be the far better pick. Now it's a case of two lightning strikes) (draw) John Cocks - Marieke Vervoort (joker) - the match-ups get harder. But both of them have a certain diceyness. (no idea) Stuart Fraser - XXX no match in DI's team, but only a very small advantage for me. Another Conway Savage-type hit? Probably not (advantage me) Anna Pavord - Valerie Harper (Seems about right) (draw) Genesis P-Orridge - XXX no real match in DI's team (just a small, not very small, but small advantage for me) (advantage me) Dawn Wilson - Simon Ricketts - a match-up moderately in DI's favour, because Wilson's slightly younger age, can't compensate for Rickett's higher obitability. The most aggressive arrows in both teams, neither a lock in death, nor a lock in obitability (advantage DI) Reggie Wright Jr. - XXXX Think DI has no "Is he even ill" person in his team. (advantage me) Valeri Spiridonov - XXXX Would more or less give me the win on the spot. At least somewhat notable, probably about as much as Ricketts, ha! (Journalists are sort-of cheating the notability criteria, because they make them). (advantage me) XXXX - Woodward & Gascoine (I have none of these safe and sound picks anymore. Together they're worth 67 pts. A quick search said, Wright Jr. is 52 years old - born in 1965/66. ) (advantage DI + advantage DI) Pretty evenly matched I think. Maybe with tiny advantages for me, because I have more names left. But: The biggest advantage for me is that I am currently ahead, by, I think, 28 points? Means, I could barely beat back a Budi Tek death by.. a point? Then Remigino would merely be a nice extra. So yeah, I think I have a better chance now. But honestly, it's only about one or maybe one and a half pick or so. That gives me the matchball, or say, the serve to win, now. But a (lucky) break for DI is very well possible.

It's an old wall, Grim. It waits.

Clive will take huge comfort it's you and not msc saying this.

I’m fairly sure Clive James was the source back in 2011 when claiming that Clive James was very close to the end!!

As the source is Rachael Bland it really will be the case.

Don't Say I don't do anything for you Even updated the all time scoreboard which I've been meaning to do for 9 months....

Just for the record, Guardian blogs aren't actual blogs. They are article series by recurring writers which get called blogs to be "down with the kids". As they are actual articles in the actual paper, they'd count, much like if Clive James mentioned the death of a colleague in his reviews imo.

I hope you don't die before you reach it.

My Twitter feed was just full of Jacqueline Pearce last night she sounded totally outragous. Biggest September death already sealed?

Wikipedia.

Gloria Jean non-QO obit. Could not find anything for Martignoni and Duering. Duering is the iconic Dr. Brodsky of A Clockwork Orange, he really deserves an obit!

Joan Rivers, off of plastic surgery, could no longer stand up on this day 4 years ago, aged 81.

Look, I noticed that you withdrew from this pool when I had a look at your team a while back, but you’re entry is still in the masterlist and will stay in the masterlist because a) there was no public acknowledgement that you withdrew until today, b) you didn’t withdraw until June, when the competition was already on for a few months, and c) your removal may have an impact on potential end of the year bonuses. Look, you don’t have to enter this again next year if this pool is running again and you don’t even have to keep track of your team at this point (I will do that for you), but your team will not be removed, and my word here is final.

Three hits for this next update, Charlotte Rae, Aretha Franklin, and Stefan Karl Stefansson. Rae is one that will only get the basic point unless they are in one of the secret spots, and these people did find a secret spot for her: Fixed Business, Unknown Man, msc (who gets double points for jokering her), Book, Death Impends, and The Dead Cow. Aretha Franklin also gets one basic point, but she gets an extra point for being on DQSBP lineup all the way back in 2011. Chorizo and RadGuy get an extra point for finding a secret spot for her. The last hit for today is Stefan Karl Stefansson, and he get's a hefty bunch points for everyone who picked him, 1 basic point, 3 points for making the drop 40, and 1 point for making DQSBP's lineup in 2017. Book, Torva, and CastAway gets an extra point for picking Stefansson in a secret number spot, and therefore there's a shakeup in the standing as a few of the contenders near the top of the leaderboard last time didn't pick him. Torva, however, still leads the pack. Will they be exclaiming that they are number 1 at the end of the year? Here are the scores! 1st - Torva Messor - 50 points 2nd - msc - 47 points 3rd - CaptainChorizo - 43 points 4th - The Dead Cow - 42 points 5th - Death Impends - 40 points 6th= - CastAway - 38 points 6th= - drol - 38 points 6th= - RadGuy - 38 points 6th= - Toast - 38 points 10th= - Bibliogryphon - 37 points 10th= - Pedro67 - 37 points 12th - Heef - 35 points 13th - The Unknown Man - 33 points 14th - Book - 30 points 15th - Gooseberry Crumble - 25 points 16th- FixedBusiness - 24 points 17th - YoungWilz - 16 points Last place - Joey Russ - 14 points RadGuy gets most improved this update, going all the way from 12th place to placing in the top 6 (even if it's shared with a few others)...

No offense intended Joey, but the Joker Pool did admittedly have the feel of "ah, so this is what running a deadpool is like".

Thank you Willz! A job very well done! Welcome back Deathray, I'm looking forward to you seeing me rise. In the scoreboard. On a different note, if anyone feels like taking a break from hosting something, I would be free to take over. My own holiday season is probably done this year. However.... the Joker Dead Pool, sorry, I don't feel that comfortable with the random jokers. Don't know if I could handle it, making my own bonus pts etc...

I’m not much of a poet, but I wrote something that isn’t that good that I decided to share with you all anyways. I woke on up this morning, hoping for a better day Cause I want to feel very happy and my troubles to go away But when I awoke this morning, everything felt the same Would the pain ever go away, or are they a part of this game But I continued onto this day, knowing that something would change And as I walked this morning, I noticed that something was strange I realized that the change would have to be done by me I had to be more accepting of who I’m meant to be I know that people do love me for exactly who I am Yet I keep worrying about people not giving me a damn But how am I supposed to notice when I always walk alone And run away from people into my safety zone But I keep on dreaming, hoping that I fall in love And to love her as an equal, and to help her from above But how could I truly love her when I don’t even love myself And tell myself that I’m no good for anybody else But if I’m truly no good, shouldn’t I be banished out in the wilderness And pray for someone to help me get out of my own mess How would I become better if I have lost all hope For I am only human, and that’s something I need to cope

As I have said previously this has been one of my favourite pools to be in because the updates have been so regular and also accurate so I will thank YW one final time for that - it was great while it lasted. However as reigning champ and record points scorer I'm sure I'll find a way to enjoy the pool being inefficient and disorganised too! Anybody who is prepared to run one of these pools deserves to run it hassle free and without criticism so thank you Deathers for taking back the reins. PS As your first new task would be great if you updated the post with previous champions and past records

Very sad news.One of the biggest losses from British sci fi for a while.

Add a facial mole and you've got a well turned- out younger version of Lemmy ( of Motörhead fame)

Thank you! Yes, a "good" hit

Congrats to gcreptile on the very nice solo for Conway Savage gcreptile.

hope the fine Bros don't sue him.

And now gone. R.I.P Betty.