General Election 2024?

[maryportfuncity 10,647]

Day two in which the Daily Mail front page appears to have forgotten there's an election on - if there are really hot temperatures on 4th July they might run with beach photos the following day

 

[maryportfuncity 10,647]

Oh aye, and Binface a disappointing fifth in my survey

 

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

 

[Thatcher 2,417]

 Unique circumstances in Birmingham given the bankruptcy and Council tax increases, but still in the middle of a general election campaign an unexpected increase in vote share for the Tories. Election was held yesterday.

[YoungWillz 21,050]

Pensioner beating Iain Dale drops attempt to become Tory candidate for Tunbridge Wells, a place he doesn't care for living in: https://order-order.com/2024/05/31/iain-dale-drops-tunbridge-wells-tory-selection-attempt/

 

Tempted to post Cilla singing Surprise Surprise again.

[The Old Crem 3,605]

7 minutes ago, Thatcher said:

 Unique circumstances in Birmingham given the bankruptcy and Council tax increases, but still in the middle of a general election campaign an unexpected increase in vote share for the Tories. Election was held yesterday.

 This is why I think a hung parliament is coming. Labour will make a lot of gains but not enough to get to 326. 
 

Kingstanding is in the Labour held semi marginal seat of Birmingham Erdington. Labour tend to win the ward in general elections going by the 2015 local elections held on the same day as the General. 
 

It was a split ward in 2022 - one Tory and one Labour. The Tory who won yesterday replaced the original Tory. And that was in an election where Labour got double the number of votes the Tories got across Birmingham as a whole. 

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

Just now, The Old Crem said:

This is why I think a hung parliament is coming. 

 

Do you think that all the current polling is wrong or that there are a lot of shy tories around?

 

We had a County council by-election recently and the Conservative won but this is a fairly solid Tory area and the local councilor who stood fought on local issues and his record as a town councilor.

 

How do you explain the recent national council results and the mayoral elections where people were predicting close contests in London and a win in the West Midlands for the Conservative which were not delivered.

 

I do have concerns that there is a complacency that Labour have it in the bag which will suppress turnout and gift the Tories some seats that might have switched to Labour but there is a mood that this current Government are a complete shower and have alienated everyone

 

If you have some data to support you assertions I will happily hear them

[The Old Crem 3,605]

Just now, Bibliogryphon said:

 

Do you think that all the current polling is wrong or that there are a lot of shy tories around?

 

We had a County council by-election recently and the Conservative won but this is a fairly solid Tory area and the local councilor who stood fought on local issues and his record as a town councilor.

 

How do you explain the recent national council results and the mayoral elections where people were predicting close contests in London and a win in the West Midlands for the Conservative which were not delivered.

 

I do have concerns that there is a complacency that Labour have it in the bag which will suppress turnout and gift the Tories some seats that might have switched to Labour but there is a mood that this current Government are a complete shower and have alienated everyone

 

If you have some data to support you assertions I will happily hear them

I just feel like the election will end up something like Labour 40% the Tories 33/34%. No real evidence just a feeling that it is going to be like 2015 again. (Which was the first election I really followed every poll and moment). 

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

Just now, The Old Crem said:

I just feel like the election will end up something like Labour 40% the Tories 33/34%. No real evidence just a feeling that it is going to be like 2015 again. (Which was the first election I really followed every poll and moment). 

 

In 2015 the Tories managed a fantastic scapegoating exercise that even David Cameron seemed astonished by. The electorate effectively punished the Liberal Democrats for the five years of austerity (in what I call the Let Him Have It scenario)

 

There were significant mistakes in the Labour campaign.

 

I think David Cameron was expecting (hoping for) another Hung Parliament which would have allowed him to keep the right of the party in check but he ended up with a small majority and that led to the Brexit referendum and the subsequent chaos.
 

Labour are making mistakes but the Conservatives have nowhere to hide from their own record this time around.

 

If there is a Conservative Government on July 5th I will see what I can do about leaving the country

[YoungWillz 21,050]

Starmer in Scotland.

 

I recall when the SNP wanted to set up a publicly owned energy company for Scotland. Blocked by the Tories as it was a reserved matter. So Starmer's great idea on a national level is simply a steal. 

 

Given Scotland provides so much clean energy already (and which Westminster claims disproportionately towards its net zero target), there are still the structural issues where Scotland provides the energy but on average bills are higher here (simply because it is colder and wetter). Hardly fair.

 

Also, there is nothing to stop a future Government selling off this marvellous company. Every possible asset has been sold off to the private sector.

 

I don't like their rehash of PFI. The public sector is crushed in large part by the costs associated with the Blair years PFI.

 

A lot of what he talks about are matters under the ambit of the Scottish Parliament which is not part of this election. Now if he is going to provide more powers and levers to the Parliament here, that's what he should say, but silent on that. 

 

Some of us remember promises made to Scotland in the past. Labour's referendum on Home Rule and Thatcher's unfulfilled promise on that. Labour's promises to introduce tuition fees, ditch free prescriptions and close hospitals. They are a bit hapless on Scottish specific policy.

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

Hah Hah

 

[TQR 14,398]

13 minutes ago, DCI Frank Burnside said:

Hah Hah

 

"I decided to withdraw, because it hadn't occurred to me before that I'd come out with so many cuntish things that people could then point out."

[msc 18,477]

20 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

Starmer in Scotland.

 

I recall when the SNP wanted to set up a publicly owned energy company for Scotland. Blocked by the Tories as it was a reserved matter. So Starmer's great idea on a national level is simply a steal. 

 

It is, though that makes the SNP complaining about it being a bad idea this morning (it'll hurt all the oil jobs, apparently) look strange. But tbh, the SNP are having an absolute shocker of late.

 

21 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

 

Given Scotland provides so much clean energy already (and which Westminster claims disproportionately towards its net zero target), there are still the structural issues where Scotland provides the energy but on average bills are higher here (simply because it is colder and wetter). Hardly fair.

 

Down to absolutely shite regulation of the energy companies and the profits they make over us plebs. This needs to be a priority of the next government, alongside the million other broken things which need emergency fixing. I think the future is in the Brits (including our bit of the island, in or out of the UK) being massive energy exporters with our unique geography for renewables and that the sooner we focus on this, the sooner we can all retire to our castles as a nation of billionaires and buy football clubs, like I assume every citizen of Saudi Arabia has done by now! 

23 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

A lot of what he talks about are matters under the ambit of the Scottish Parliament which is not part of this election. Now if he is going to provide more powers and levers to the Parliament here, that's what he should say, but silent on that. 

There's a lot of stuff up here (prescriptions for example) which have shown up in recent Labour  Westminster manifestos because its not the case in England yet. 14 years of Tory rule for you. As for more powers up here, that depends on Big Gordon keeping healthy to add weight to the devolved powers argument, and to be fair to Brown, he still believes in that Devo Max Vow unlike everyone else who signed the fucking thing.

 

Whenever David Cameron shows up on screen I suddenly get fucking Tourettes. Bastard1

 

25 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

 

Some of us remember promises made to Scotland in the past. Labour's referendum on Home Rule and Thatcher's unfulfilled promise on that. Labour's promises to introduce tuition fees, ditch free prescriptions and close hospitals. They are a bit hapless on Scottish specific policy.

They're out of practice on Scotland a bit these days.

 

But remember, if you ever feel down, that the wrecker of the 79 vote George Cunningham is now in fact, as dead as a Thatcher.

[An Fear Beag 1,535]

1 hour ago, The Old Crem said:

. No real evidence just a feeling 

 

Now there's a fucking surprise!

[msc 18,477]

Oh go on then. Apparently, I'm a socialist, who knew? This also claims that Sunak is a lot like me on social and environmental issues which I think is absolute bollocks. 

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

1 hour ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

Do you think that all the current polling is wrong or that there are a lot of shy tories around?

 

We had a County council by-election recently and the Conservative won but this is a fairly solid Tory area and the local councilor who stood fought on local issues and his record as a town councilor.

 

How do you explain the recent national council results and the mayoral elections where people were predicting close contests in London and a win in the West Midlands for the Conservative which were not delivered.

 

I do have concerns that there is a complacency that Labour have it in the bag which will suppress turnout and gift the Tories some seats that might have switched to Labour but there is a mood that this current Government are a complete shower and have alienated everyone

 

If you have some data to support you assertions I will happily hear them

 

Not only was he predicting Street would win, he was the only person claiming Susan Hall would win! It's fantasy!

 

I'm terrified about complacency and shy Tories too, though. Taking nothing for granted until July 4th.

[msc 18,477]

2 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

Not only was he predicting Street would win, he was the only person claiming Susan Hall would win! It's fantasy!

 

Well, you've just confirmed who Laura Kuenssberg's source is!

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

 

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

1 hour ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

Do you think that all the current polling is wrong or that there are a lot of shy tories around?

 

We had a County council by-election recently and the Conservative won but this is a fairly solid Tory area and the local councilor who stood fought on local issues and his record as a town councilor.

 

How do you explain the recent national council results and the mayoral elections where people were predicting close contests in London and a win in the West Midlands for the Conservative which were not delivered.

 

I do have concerns that there is a complacency that Labour have it in the bag which will suppress turnout and gift the Tories some seats that might have switched to Labour but there is a mood that this current Government are a complete shower and have alienated everyone

 

If you have some data to support you assertions I will happily hear them

 

 

Yep but I do get the feeling people are going to be motivated by playing their part in giving the Tories a good kicking and won't stay away

[TQR 14,398]

16 minutes ago, DCI Frank Burnside said:

 

 

Yeah looking at this I reckon the Tories will be the largest party in a hung parliament. It's obvious.

[msc 18,477]

13 minutes ago, DCI Frank Burnside said:

 

 

Yep but I do get the feeling people are going to be motivated by playing their part in giving the Tories a good kicking and won't stay away

 

If I've been following Toast's posts correctly, she's not just looking forward, she's got a brand new pair of boots for the kicking. 

[TQR 14,398]

This makes a glorious headline.

 

 

Reports suggest it might just have been an expression of love from Jonathan Gullis.

[YoungWillz 21,050]

Julian Knight, former Tory, to stand as independent.

[time 8,611]

13 hours ago, msc said:

 

I mean, I wouldn't say 85% in common was a vast gulf myself!

Its not - what I mean by this is that as I've always considered myself Labour, I'd expected Labour to be nearer the top of the list, certainly above Green & Lib Dem etc, hence my comment about it saying more about the Labour Party than me, in that the Labour Party has changed but (in my opinion, at least) my views haven't.

[The Old Crem 3,605]

15 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

Julian Knight, former Tory, to stand as independent.

Solihull is probably safe enough now a days for the Tories that him standing won’t cost them the seat - as well as it not being fully clear who is best placed to best the Tories there between Labour and the Lib Dem’s.