General Election 2024?

[TQR 14,404]

3 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

I'm not saying it's going to happen, but if they can pick up another 7 points (getting to 30%), and Labour were to drop into the high 30s, then the majority could shrink. But, I'm not sure what needs to change for the outcome to be different. Currently, Electoral Calculus is predicting a Labour majority of 300, and less than 100 Tory MPs, which is surely complete nonsense? But change the scores so the Tories are on 30%, Labour on 39%, Reform down to 8% (Tories have already eaten into their total a bit, let's say that continues as we close in on election day), Greens up to 8% (predicted around 6%, let's say they pick up a few more votes from disaffected Labour voters on the left) and leave the Lib Dems as is (around 9%) and Labour would still end up with a majority of 100. Although we'd still have more than 200 Tory MPs in that scenario. But, so far, the dials aren't changing significantly.

 

Much as all the maths and even public feeling points towards the Tories being all but atomised, I refuse to be as optimistic as this, even if the likes of Carol Vorderman is with her stopthetories.vote campaign. I think it's quite safe predict a repeat of 1997, but there's a non-zero chance of a Canada 1993. (everything crossed!)

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

13 minutes ago, TQR said:

Much as all the maths and even public feeling points towards the Tories being all but atomised, I refuse to be as optimistic as this, even if the likes of Carol Vorderman is with her stopthetories.vote campaign. I think it's quite safe predict a repeat of 1997, but there's a non-zero chance of a Canada 1993. (everything crossed!)

 

Agreed. I'm not even believing we're going to get 1997 yet. I'll take a Labour majority to start with.

[msc 18,480]

1 minute ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

Agreed. I'm not even believing we're going to get 1997 yet. I'll take a Labour majority to start with.

I was reading an old article by the late great David Butler recently written before the 1997 election where he noted that every pundit and paper has predicted nearly every election result from a Major win to a decent Wilson 66 sized majority and the one thing no one dared to predict was the 180 seat majority the polls were suggesting!

 

But yeah I even said to @Death Impends earlier that I expect the polls to tighten, simply because my brain can't take in the sort of wipeout they keep suggesting.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

3 minutes ago, msc said:

I was reading an old article by the late great David Butler recently written before the 1997 election where he noted that every pundit and paper has predicted nearly every election result from a Major win to a decent Wilson 66 sized majority and the one thing no one dared to predict was the 180 seat majority the polls were suggesting!

 

But yeah I even said to @Death Impends earlier that I expect the polls to tighten, simply because my brain can't take in the sort of wipeout they keep suggesting.

 

It's funny, I'm actually working my way through the 1997 election night coverage on Youtube this week. It's on in hour-long blocks and I've watched up to probably going up 5am now, and for the first time (I've seen much of it before), I really understand the astonishment and the delight that met the exit poll and the early results. Robin Cook was interviewed about an hour ago (when the majority had already been secured) and said he'd been seriously admonished a couple of weeks earlier because he mentioned the word 'landslide' on camera. Blair, Campbell, Mandy and co. were all being incredibly circumspect as the results started coming in. Dimbleby commented how muted the mood seemed to be on Blair's plane as they were heading down to London! I'll take "Labour largest party, small majority likely", I can't dream of the sort of wipeout of 1997, watching a third of the Cabinet and a host of prominent backbenchers wiped out.

[msc 18,480]

12 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

It's funny, I'm actually working my way through the 1997 election night coverage on Youtube this week. It's on in hour-long blocks and I've watched up to probably going up 5am now, and for the first time (I've seen much of it before), I really understand the astonishment and the delight that met the exit poll and the early results. Robin Cook was interviewed about an hour ago (when the majority had already been secured) and said he'd been seriously admonished a couple of weeks earlier because he mentioned the word 'landslide' on camera. Blair, Campbell, Mandy and co. were all being incredibly circumspect as the results started coming in. Dimbleby commented how muted the mood seemed to be on Blair's plane as they were heading down to London! I'll take "Labour largest party, small majority likely", I can't dream of the sort of wipeout of 1997, watching a third of the Cabinet and a host of prominent backbenchers wiped out.

Aye Blair had talks with Paddy Ashdown in case of needing a coalition. Apparently Paddy, who had concessions on pr if that happened, phoned Blair to congratulate him the night of the results and said "so, you're sure you don't need that coalition?"

 

Robin Cook was good fun on nights like that. He died far too young.

[Toast 16,155]

My worry is that the general public is too thick and/or unaware of why things are as bad as they are.

Bit of a spat the other day on local Facebook page about strimming of footpaths, and everybody blaming the council for it not being done.

"They haven't done anything for years, useless bastards" etc.

I polnted out that there's no money because the corrupt Tories have sucked everything dry and trousered billions of our money between them and their cronies.

Didn't draw a single response or even a 'like'.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

4 minutes ago, Toast said:

My worry is that the general public is too thick and/or unaware of why things are as bad as they are.

Bit of a spat the other day on local Facebook page about strimming of footpaths, and everybody blaming the council for it not being done.

"They haven't done anything for years, useless bastards" etc.

I polnted out that there's no money because the corrupt Tories have sucked everything dry and trousered billions of our money between them and their cronies.

Didn't draw a single response or even a 'like'.

 

This. 1000 times this. Councils have bugger all money but get the blame for everything. People are the dumbest fucks in the world sometimes.

 

There was a woman on North West Tonight just now who was part of a vox pop because Sunak's been in the area today. Her friend said she didn't like Sunak and her friend piped up with "I like the Tories, though. I just think better the devil you know than what you don't." I mean, fuck me. How much worse would Labour have to do to be worse than the devil you know?! 

[En Passant 3,743]

11 minutes ago, Toast said:

even a 'like'.

 

Have an extra like here. .

 

Don't start me on the iniquities of Council Tax. Just don't. I'll settle for a couple of points to get it off my chest.

 

Check out the cheapest council tax in the country it's massively less than you pay (clue, you probably can't buy a house there). How 'fair' is that?

Potholes, I cycle a bit as well as drive a car, so get shouted at 'I pay my road tax' a fair bit. Yes you do sir, but it doesn't go on the roads, nor does the fuel duty, nor the VAT on the fuel duty. You know who pays for the potholes to be fixed? The local council....who get none of that money.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

 

OK, fair play Michael, that's a good zinger. 

[Thatcher 2,418]

First MRP poll puts the Tories nearing extinction.

[msc 18,480]

7 minutes ago, Thatcher said:

First MRP poll puts the Tories nearing extinction.

Sucks to be Thangam Debbonaire!

 

Waiting for the YouGov one though as they have a history of accuracy with MRP now.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

8 minutes ago, Thatcher said:

First MRP poll puts the Tories nearing extinction.

 

Oh, if wishing made it so...

[Brad252 807]

If that or fewer Tory seats emerged it might be the first ever example of political porn.

 

One other thing about that tweet is the Twitter handle they quoted isn't for "Find Out Now", but for a fruit company that hasn't posted since 2010.

[TQR 14,404]

If the Lib Dems become HM Official Opposition, I shall stop considering emigrating and be proud of my country for the first time since gawd knows when.

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

Is Crem running the Tories social media....

 

[YoungWillz 21,066]

34 minutes ago, Thatcher said:

First MRP poll puts the Tories nearing extinction.

On the bright side, this means that for the Tories the polls have turned the corner...

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

1 minute ago, DCI Frank Burnside said:

Is Crem running the Tories social media....

 

"Angela Rayner is running the Labour Party" says leader who has danced to Suella Braverman's tune since before he became leader. 

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

5 minutes ago, TQR said:

If the Lib Dems become HM Official Opposition, I shall stop considering emigrating and be proud of my country for the first time since gawd knows when.

 

On numbers like that, perhaps there should be another Con-Lib coalition in opposition. 

[Sly Ronnie 886]

I can't get on to the Electoral Calculus website, it must have crashed!

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

 

 

 

 

Badenoch would definetely class as a Portillo moment for sure! 

 

Definitely  an outlier a poll. Nice thoughts to have all the same 

 

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

 

 

 

Tominey but of course 

[TQR 14,404]

Just now, DCI Frank Burnside said:

 

 

 

Tominey but of course 

 

Or 'Auntie Camilla', as Crem calls her.

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

I do think it's plausible the Tories come back with just double figures but nowhere near as low as 60 odd. Mid to high 90s at worst for them I think.

[msc 18,480]

46 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

"Angela Rayner is running the Labour Party" says leader who has danced to Suella Braverman's tune since before he became leader. 

In 2005 the Tories briefly ran a "vote Tony get Gordon" billboard which disappeared after a week or two. I found out later that this attack was having the opposite effect on the doorstep for Tory campaigners as people at that time quite liked Gordon Brown and were happier about labour when reminded Blair was leaving sooner than later! 

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

Watching some of the 1997 Election. Ashdown's voice is something that's been badly missed over the last 6 years.