Coronavirus death toll 2020

[Lard Bazaar 3,800]

10 hours ago, Lord Fellatio Nelson said:

Elsewhere on the web people are talking about showing symptoms in December/early January. If this theory holds water then the virus was already here long before we believe that it arrived. I had a horrendous cough in January that led me to have coughing fits and feeling like shit.

Who knows how many people have had this without knowing.

I had a persistent cough for about three weeks following a few days of snotty cold in December.  The official figures of infection and death are all bullshit.

[Paul Bearer 6,102]

27 minutes ago, Lard Bazaar said:

I had a persistent cough for about three weeks following a few days of snotty cold in December.  The official figures of infection and death are all bullshit.

I caught a cold about 2 weeks before it all kicked off.  

[the_engineer 1,415]

1 hour ago, msc said:

 

Mrs msc has always been amused by the Belarussian football team name Dynamo Brest.

 

I wonder if their supporters sing ' get ya brests out for the lads' before the teams make their way onto the field.

[gcreptile 10,979]

I had a pretty persistent stomach bug in early February. Quite a bit of fever, general weakness... The main resson I don't think it was Coronavirus, was that I didn't seem to infect anyone around me, especially the one living with me.

But when I returned to work after three days, I must have appeared terribly sick.

[the_engineer 1,415]

Anyone have a tickle in the back of their nose that's making them cough (not throat)? I Have no other symptoms.

[Steve 605]

1 minute ago, the_engineer said:

Anyone have a tickle in the back of their nose that's making them cough (not throat)? I Have no other symptoms.

I had that for about 4-5 weeks from late December until end of January. It was horrendous. Kept thinking I was going choke to death. 

[ladyfiona 2,592]

Back in mid November I had a serious UTI infection which caused me to be off work for over a week. In that time I had hot/cold flashes, high temperature and was out of it with fatigue. Tuesday 8am I was fine and at work, by 10am the nurse I worked with took my temperature and it was through the roof, I went home an hour later. I went to out of hours GP days later and antibiotics helped me recover but for days I thought it was some kind of flu or a bad reaction to the flu jab i'd had few weeks before.

 

If I had that now I would be freaking out thinking it was the virus.

[torbrexbones 717]

8 hours ago, ladyfiona said:

Back in mid November I had a serious UTI infection which caused me to be off work for over a week. In that time I had hot/cold flashes, high temperature and was out of it with fatigue. Tuesday 8am I was fine and at work, by 10am the nurse I worked with took my temperature and it was through the roof, I went home an hour later. I went to out of hours GP days later and antibiotics helped me recover but for days I thought it was some kind of flu or a bad reaction to the flu jab i'd had few weeks before.

 

If I had that now I would be freaking out thinking it was the virus.

That is part of the problem of test kit shortages, everyone thinks that if they have the slightest cough or temperature, they have the virus and demand to get tested.

They should just stay at home until they either die or get better.

[Cerberus 302]

Can anyone explain the disparity in figures given for Spain? BBC News is saying 812 in the last 24 hours, but that Worldometers table is showing 537. Even using different cut-off times, that's a huge difference. 

[Life Is Beautiful 718]

I heard all of your medical takes and they are fantastic, keep it up guys!

[ladyfiona 2,592]

I don't think this will help India stop the virus. There is mass migration going on.

[Genfærd 452]

Prime minister in Denmark just announced that we will slowly open up again and return to normal after easter. They're optimistic about the results of the lockdown.

[drol 11,957]

Italy's new cases today have been 50% lower than yesterday. Measures giving their fruit and probably a big reservoir of ill people not tested is finally running out of steam. Hope this goes on; government is already discussing reopening for mid-April.

[Toast 16,150]

That's very encouraging.

[ladyfiona 2,592]

[Cruyff's Turn 11]

Anybody else see the resemblance between Raab C Brexit and the late lamented Geoffrey Fairbrother of Maplin's ?

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,219]

1 minute ago, Cruyff's Turn said:

Anybody else see the resemblance between Raab C Brexit and the late lamented Geoffrey Fairbrother of Maplin's ?

Well, actually, now you mention it, no.

[torbrexbones 717]

Where has the old lady gone?

Has she succumbed?

[msc 18,479]

Although the lack of daily updates did mean I was a bit surprised to see it killed 3500 people worldwide yesterday. I knew it was bad, I didn't realise it had got that bad. It's now killed more people in the US than the September 11 attacks, and they've already overtaken Iran which was meant to be one of the worst hit countries.

[Grim Up North 3,727]

5 minutes ago, msc said:

Although the lack of daily updates did mean I was a bit surprised to see it killed 3500 people worldwide yesterday. I knew it was bad, I didn't realise it had got that bad. It's now killed more people in the US than the September 11 attacks, and they've already overtaken Iran which was meant to be one of the worst hit countries.

 

Yeah it must be serious - surprised we're not hearing more about it on the news.

[msc 18,479]

Just now, Grim Up North said:

 

Yeah it must be serious - surprised we're not hearing more about it on the news.

 

Very drol!

 

My blood pressure's been far better since I stopped watching the news, Newsnight, Question Time, etc etc.

[Genfærd 452]

OK i may have had the virus without knowing... Where I live, a lot of people became sick with Covid-19 after a 40.000 attendee event on March 9th in a crowded exhibition center - my mom went to that event. I visited her a few days after the event, and later that week she was sick with flu like symptoms. She still coughs now even though it's been a few weeks.

 

The following week from the visit, I had a bad cold and terrible throat pains for 4 days, and I'm considering if I had very mild symptoms since I'm only 30 years young. I read an article about footballer Mangala in Valencia who tested positive and he only felt light pains in this throat. Scary.

 

I've been at home the past weeks besides going for walks on my own, so I've probably not been spreading it around. But still... 

[theoldlady 2,306]

8 hours ago, torbrexbones said:

Where has the old lady gone?

Has she succumbed?

Still here!  There are  40,643 reported deaths reported worldwide a few minutes ago. The French deaths for today are not in yet. 
Edit:
Almost 4,000 New deaths in one day. And in three hours the deathrate increased to 41,482. 

Edited March 31, 2020 by theoldlady

[the_engineer 1,415]

Looks like 100k to 999k band will be about right. Probably kill around 250k before the deaths start to fall off and kill around 20/30 a day worldwide.

[Grim Up North 3,727]

Some crazy corona virus maths based around the scientific assertion that we have a 1% death rate and not the current 18% death rate showing in the ratio of deaths to survivors or even the 5% death rate of deaths against confirmed cases.

 

THE WORLD STATISTICS

If a typical corona timeline is day 5 diagnosis and day 18 death (if you die) and they are correct about the 1% death rate then you can do some maths for next 13 days.

The people dead now are about 40,000

The people diagnosed 13 days ago were about 220,000 but the real number would have needed to be 4 million for the 1% to be true. 

So understated by about 18 times.

Now there are 825,000 cases so taking the same understatement there are really 15 million cases.

 

So in 13 days 150,000 people will have died of Coronavirus or 110,000 more than today- an average of about 8,500 per day (but those deaths won't occur in a straight line).

THE UK STATISTICS

Using same reasoning for UK we now have 1789 deaths.

13 days ago we had 2626 cases but really had 179,000 so 68 times understated.

 

Today there are 25,000 cases so using same multiple really we’ve had 1.7 million so in another 13 days we will have 17,000 dead or an extra 15,210 which is an average of 1,170 per day (again those deaths won't occur in a straight line).

I'll come back to this on 14th April (if I'm still here) and see how I got on. You can actually build the above figures up day by day to track them but I can't be arsed.