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Coronavirus death toll 2020

Coronavirus death toll 2020  

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1 hour ago, the_engineer said:

Looks like 100k to 999k band will be about right. Probably kill around 250k before the deaths start to fall off and kill around 20/30 a day worldwide.

 

I reckon it will be either that band or the 1 million  to 9.99 million band.  With the caveat that the confirmed deaths will only be a fraction of the overall attributable deaths, and it's not certain to what extent clinically identified cases will form part of the total.  (For instance, in the UK we aren't testing care home residents who are being managed palliatively)

 

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1 hour ago, paddyfool said:

 

I reckon it will be either that band or the 1 million  to 9.99 million band.  With the caveat that the confirmed deaths will only be a fraction of the overall attributable deaths, and it's not certain to what extent clinically identified cases will form part of the total.  (For instance, in the UK we aren't testing care home residents who are being managed palliatively)

 

 The China numbers being a bit fragile

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42,000 deaths. 4232 today. Depressing. :rip: 632 in the USA and the day is not over yet there;

this does not include the deaths China has lied about.

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12 minutes ago, DeathByArsenic said:

It could go into millions before the year is out:ghost4:

It definitely won't go into millions!!

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26 minutes ago, Steve said:

It definitely won't go into millions!!

Because your predictions up to this point have been bang on?

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50 minutes ago, theoldlady said:

42,000 deaths. 4232 today. Depressing. :rip: 632 in the USA and the day is not over yet there;

this does not include the deaths China has lied about.

 

You know whats even more depressing.

 

That someone as old as yourself is using this time to morbidly stiff chase and post figures wildly available elsewhere on the web as if their some kind of oracle.

 

Shouldn't you be spending your last few months enjoying free access to pornhub premium, or has it all gone a bit rusty and stopped working down there nowadays? Is it the ticker, worried you might have a heart attack? 

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16 minutes ago, En Passant said:

Because your predictions up to this point have been bang on?

Well I know I am right about this! 

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Just now, Steve said:

Well I know I am right about this! 

 

Well the rest of us now your a boring fucking cunt which is good enough for us!

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On 14/03/2020 at 00:20, Prophet said:

Corona deaths in Germany by age, region and gender:

-89 (1), from North Rhine-Westphalia (female) 

-85 (1), from Baden-Württemberg  (male) 

-83 (1), from Bavaria (male)

-80 (1), from Baden-Württemberg  (male)

-78 (2), both from North Rhine-Westphalia (one male, one female)

-67 (1), from Baden-Württemberg (male) 

We only had 7 Corona deaths back than. Now (not even a month later) we have 682 and 15 deaths in my home town.

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4 minutes ago, Prophet said:

We only had 7 Corona deaths back than. Now (not even a month later) we have 682 and 15 deaths in my home town.

 

Recorded.

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7 hours ago, Steve said:

Well I know I am right about this! 

 

You ARE right about this.  The States have a worst case scenario of about 200000, and we are pretty damn big.  So the world may hit a million.  But millions?  Ain't a-gonna happen.  Of course there's always S. America in denial.... could compound things.

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Here's your Acadiana (southern Louisiana) update:

As of noon on March 31, the Louisiana Department of Health reported 1,212 additional cases since Monday, bringing the total to 5,237 positive cases.

So far, 239 people have died.

 

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868 US deaths today. 

 

Man, a lot of people are going to die worldwide the coming weeks. 

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1 minute ago, Genfærd said:

868 US deaths today. 

 

Man, a lot of people are going to die worldwide the coming weeks. 

US could’ve had less deaths if the government hadn’t fucked up this entire thing. Now they’re expecting the death toll to be at least 100k, and I think that’s a lowball estimate tbh...

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RE the various predictions of how many deaths we'll see worldwide this year - currently, the world is seeing about 5000 confirmed Covid19 deaths per day (and rising).  If this was to continue to be the average for the rest of the year, we'd see 1.37 million Covid19 deaths this year.  (Obviously, we'd expect it to climb and then fall, but what the peak and trough values will be, and when we'll arrive at each, is very much still to be decided).  My range of estimates for the worldwide confirmed figure would go from a headily optimistic figure of about 250,000 (if we peak very soon and then drop to well below the current rate for the rest of the year, i.e. if much of the rest of the world follows a similar pattern to China) to 2 .5 million (if we end up averaging nearly 10k per day for the rest of the year) at this point, with a mid-range estimate of about 1 million (which could happen if  we peak within the next month and then daily worldwide deaths drop to rather less than their current level for the rest of the year, i.e. an average of just under 4000 deaths per day for the rest of the year overall).  

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7 minutes ago, paddyfool said:

RE the various predictions of how many deaths we'll see worldwide this year - currently, the world is seeing about 5000 confirmed Covid19 deaths per day (and rising).  If this was to continue to be the average for the rest of the year, we'd see 1.37 million Covid19 deaths this year.  (Obviously, we'd expect it to climb and then fall, but what the peak and trough values will be, and when we'll arrive at each, is very much still to be decided).  My range of estimates for the worldwide confirmed figure would go from a headily optimistic figure of about 250,000 (if we peak very soon and then drop to well below the current rate for the rest of the year, i.e. if much of the rest of the world follows a similar pattern to China) to 2 .5 million (if we end up averaging nearly 10k per day for the rest of the year) at this point, with a mid-range estimate of about 1 million (which could happen if  we peak within the next month and then daily worldwide deaths drop to rather less than their current level for the rest of the year, i.e. an average of just under 4000 deaths per day for the rest of the year overall).  

I am going to say no more than 65,000 deaths from this awful global pandemic 

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If it only causes 65,000 deaths (0.1% of the 56m annual deaths worldwide), while also bankrupting half the world's businesses, I would expect people to lynch at least 65,000 politicians and experts. I will go for a figure that would at least be significant on a worldwide scale, and higher than the 3.3m that die annually from TB. So let's say 4m worldwide.

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11 minutes ago, Steve said:

I am going to say no more than 65,000 deaths from this awful global pandemic 

We live in hope.

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5 minutes ago, Lord Fellatio Nelson said:

We live in hope.

Thank you for joining me in my optimism

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18 minutes ago, Steve said:

I am going to say no more than 65,000 deaths from this awful global pandemic 

Only 65000 after all of this. Not worth all the effort then. I am going for a walk. 

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33 minutes ago, Steve said:

I am going to say no more than 65,000 deaths from this awful global pandemic 

 

I would estimate that we pass 65,000 deaths within the next 5 days

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On 01/04/2020 at 01:07, Sir Creep said:

Here's your Acadiana (southern Louisiana) update:

As of noon on March 31, the Louisiana Department of Health reported 1,212 additional cases since Monday, bringing the total to 5,237 positive cases.

So far, 239 people have died.

 


I had forgot to mention, which was of utmost importance - when I left my home for work March 15 we had a single ‘suspected case’ of C19 in New Iberia.  So all those numbers have been in a 16-day span.

 

Funny what happens when you have Mardi Gras parades in late February! 
 

 

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The National Lottery has changed their prize structure as a direct result of Covid-19: 

 

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