While I'm not one of those who chose Hefner, I'm guessing it's basically taking a shot in the dark?
It was obvious that Christie was going to be the 7th death during the last poll, but sometimes the deaths come out of the blue. I definitely didn't expect the MTM death to start off the year (though maybe it's just me). He's old enough that it wouldn't be completely shocking if he died next, though you're right, he's probably going on the list next year too.