The official death toll just jumped by a quarter overnight, from 106 to 132. Confirmed case totals rose by the same proportion https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/28/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html
I'm not surprised that there are rumours of a cover-up or of significantly higher true mortality, but I'd be sceptical of these for now.
Many big questions remain unanswered:
- Will sustained global transmission occur in spite of current control measures? It seems pretty likely at the moment imho, even though the antecedents, SARS and MERS, were contained.
- Will any existing antiviral treatments prove effective?
- Will someone succeed in finding a vaccine?
- How will the virus evolve?
- How much will the transmission and mortality figured change by location, and differing demographics / health systems / resources etc?
- How will health systems cope with the strain imposed by quarantine etc, and how will this affect care for people with other conditions?
One thing that I'm a little surprised about is that no public health bodies have used this to push the anti-smoking message yet. Surely now, if ever, is the time to look after respiratory health, especially given the link between smoking status and both susceptibility to and severity of respiratory tract infections.