Derby Dead Pool 2017

[JiroemonKimura 95]

 

 

 

In the 2016 thread I pretty accurately predicted the score of my Main Team. This time, I predict myself to be in the 130-140 range. I'll calculate something similar this evening for others.

Edit: I have a feeling, this year's teams are riskier. I calculate scores by weighting them with probabilities. The Love Boat 2016 got 119pts out of 160-170 possible. This time 200+ pts are possible but the probability is lower.

 

So I've calculated 141,7 pts for The Love Boat this year, out of 214 possible.

92,62 for Shameless, plus some points for Jay Clark, let's say, around 100pts.

86,27 pts for The B-Team (scores for Shameless and The B-Team are not up-to-date, as I have to adjust Drop 40/unique/obit chances).

 

The best possible team I could have fielded, according to my longlist would go on to score 146,52pts, but I've decided against picking Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and against picking Lucas Kinney (and I slightly attributed some more risk to The Love Boat).

 

The highest scoring person I didn't pick (bar the terrorists) was Jacques Chirac, followed by Joseph Kony and Marieke Vervoort.

 

Watch this space, if you're interested in my calculations for other teams (not entirely unselfish, as it is a research exercise).

 

DQSP: 108,47+7,75 (Mark Sims joker bonus)+ 8,1 (Paul Briggs) + 5,34 (Laurie Brokenshire) + 5,1 (Michael Perham) = 134,76 (Paul Briggs and Jagraj Singh would now be in my main team)

TLE: 102,46 + 7,80 (al-Baghdadi joker bonus) + Steve Pollard (1,31) + Susanne Cameron-Blackie (???) + Vincent Lambert (1,96) + Les Mutrie (5,61) = 119,14 plus Anna Raccoon (which I can't figure out)

TJS: 115,06 + joker bonus + 3,83 (Wayne Barrett) = 118,89 + joker bonus =

Heading Nowhere: 113,25pts + joker bonus =

Pan Breed: 120,39+8,99 (Gord Downie joker bonus)+ 5,28 (Anna Holmlund)=134,66

Bert Trautmann: 114,22 + 7,75 (Mark Sims joker bonus) + 4,36 (Jerome Golmard) + 4,14 (Patrick Cryne) = 130,47

Going Underground: 81,39 + 7,53 (Tracy McGiffin joker bonus) + Sonny West + Leon White + Paul Madeley + Rena Salmon + Jessi Zazu =

Cancel My Appointments:

JoeyRuss: 124,18 + 8,38 (Ben Suisala joker bonus) = 132,56

RadGuy:

Dead as a Doornail:

Still Life:

 

 

(I will add teams as I encounter them and find them interesting - the single names are those I had to add to my long list, and while I didn't do the same exercise for other teams last year, it should not be terribly surprising if my team scores best - because, after all, that's why I picked the people I picked. But the new-to-me picks can shake things up.)

Love to know what you make of my crumbles!!

I'll do it tomorrow, I promise! You have lots of different and new (to me) names, and I'm afraid I might not judge them right today.

Please do mine, I have my team in my signature and my own personal analysis on this page.

[CaptainChorizo 1,977]

I think my chances will rest on the Eat,Pray,Love Authors gf having a festivus miracle save her or omission of age in obit writeups. Also would need most of the non lock obit people like Sims/Lakovic etc I passed over to miss out obits and for my own iffy obit picks like Hart and Sumner to land in.

[msc 18,437]

I think my chances will rest on the Eat,Pray,Love Authors gf having a festivus miracle save her or omission of age in obit writeups. Also would need most of the non lock obit people like Sims/Lakovic etc I passed over to miss out obits and for my own iffy obit picks like Hart and Sumner to land in.

 

Via her own website, eight in 1968 = 1959/60 birth = 9 points until 2019. I took the precaution of looking that up just in case...

[msc 18,437]

Remember, as much as how many hits or who they are determines the winner, the order they come in is of equal importance imo.

[Predictor 1,018]

Thank you for your thoughtful quality analysis.

My joker is always at the top of the list so in this case it's Thomas Kennally.

 

I think it will be in mid January when we all know whether our picks our unique?

 

Just out of curiosity which do you think are my likely unique picks please?

 

What impressed me so much with your list is your clear strength for finding unique picks. Finding people who are unique picks but likely to obit to the extent I believe you have is a very tricky thing to pull off. I'd say that at least half of your picks are unique if not more.

Like me you go for a good variety of people and don't just concentrate on people from the same field.

I think Dean Stockwell is probably your weakest pick and strikes me as a 2018 name and I think the Swedish princess is probably one of your strongest picks imo.

 

 

When you have the time would you mind comparing and contrasting the different crumbles and telling me which you think is my strongest time and once you tell me I will then tell you which I think is my strongest team and my weakest.

 

It would be interesting to see if we agree!

 

Many Thanks

 

Yes, mid-January is usually when the updated DDP site is up. The ones I'm guessing could be UPs are Poul Schlüter, Arthur Irving, Hubert de Givenchy and Frederick Dent. Your joker Thomas Keneally, and Hans Rausing also stand a chance. But the thing is that many theme teams simply choose certain names to fill the empty spots. Thus, it's tricky to predict beforehand.

 

So, for instance, team A might be doing an author-themed team and looks for authors that are simply old if there aren't enough ill authors to go around. Team B has inside knowledge that one of the old authors picked by A also is ill (and not just old). In this case, B would not be rewarded with a unique bonus because A needed a full team.

 

Dean Stockwell may seem like a bit too early selection, but I know some more updated information that makes me fairly sure that he's a goner this year. Time will tell. Regarding people from different fields, while that shouldn't be a goal in itself, I do have to stop myself from picking too many people of the same occupation if it's a main team I'm doing. Right now, I have everything from a murderer, a nazi, and a porn star to a drug mule and a Micronesian ruler!

 

Having looked at all three crumbles, I believe that your apricot team will do best. I'm not super familiar with all of the names, but do believe you will score some hits with names like Hefner, Cardin, etc. Blueberry will come in close second, I think, while the team that shares your username unfortunately will do worst. I'm basing this on the fact that I regard people like Gina Lollobrigida, Gene Hackman, Pat Boone, Wilbur Smith, Prince Henrik, etc. as healthy enough to survive the year. Also, Mary Carlisle is someone who doesn't get media attention so there's an obit issue there. I do like the very active Facebook-page her family/friends have setup though.

[Toast 16,129]

Occasionally a post on here makes me squirm with distaste, and this is one of them.

 

Peter Skellern: His dying wish of being ordained as a priest was fulfilled back in October. So he's either fucked or a liar who wants to get into little boys' tiny buttholes. 80% I guess.

[RadGuy 1,614]

I actually figure around the same, because I'm also including people who'll probably obit but are still considered risky obits if you know what I mean. Least likely hits for me are Brady (though the gut instinct could be right), Davies, and Stefansson. Oh, and the Aspin guy if he shows up to have died before the new year. Just my observation of course.

 

I didn't pick him for the DDP due to obit worries, but he is in my Deathrace team and I follow his condition closely from his wife's and sister's Facebook walls. They post a lot about him and did not mention his passing.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

 

I actually figure around the same, because I'm also including people who'll probably obit but are still considered risky obits if you know what I mean. Least likely hits for me are Brady (though the gut instinct could be right), Davies, and Stefansson. Oh, and the Aspin guy if he shows up to have died before the new year. Just my observation of course.

 

I didn't pick him for the DDP due to obit worries, but he is in my Deathrace team and I follow his condition closely from his wife's and sister's Facebook walls. They post a lot about him and did not mention his passing.

Ah. I'm not as concerned about his obit. I was more concerned if he died beforehand. Thanks for telling me though.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

I know gcreptile have him on his squad, but I feel like Daisy Berkowitz reaks of fraud. I mean, the lack of updates as well as having stage 4 colon cancer since 2013 seems a bit suspicious. I don't trust him, that's for sure. Feel the same way as Qureshi and Snuka, who both feel fraudy as well.

[RadGuy 1,614]

I know gcreptile have him on his squad, but I feel like Daisy Berkowitz reaks of fraud. I mean, the lack of updates as well as having stage 4 colon cancer since 2013 seems a bit suspicious. I don't trust him, that's for sure. Feel the same way as Qureshi and Snuka, who both feel fraudy as well.

I saw an article from a couple months ago aboht Qureshi apparently being miraculously cured.

 

I dunno much bout the prognosis of stage 4 colon cancer, but Berkowitz might have been cured with it going unreported.

[Death Impends 7,956]

Nah, stage 4 colon cancer is rarely curable. Only exception I can think of is George Alagiah, who was lucky in that even the liver metastasis was operable, and remains on the mend. Operation is out of the question in the majority of cases, but sometimes the right drugs can keep the cancer stable for many months or even years. I think Berkowitz is legit, just a very slow burner case.

[Sir Creep 7,070]

 

I know gcreptile have him on his squad, but I feel like Daisy Berkowitz reaks of fraud. I mean, the lack of updates as well as having stage 4 colon cancer since 2013 seems a bit suspicious. I don't trust him, that's for sure. Feel the same way as Qureshi and Snuka, who both feel fraudy as well.

I saw an article from a couple months ago aboht Qureshi apparently being miraculously cured.

I dunno much bout the prognosis of stage 4 colon cancer, but Berkowitz might have been cured with it going unreported.

Just the opposite. Last Fall they organized a benefit concert for him and he couldn't attend whereas In the Spring he was actually performing etc. So I put 2+2 together and I think this is the year for Daisy. Maybe I read too much into his absence.

SC

[Heef 166]

Steve Sumner: Recently set a goal of "life". Probably fucked, but not much news. 80%.

 

There was a long article about him in the local newspaper here in NZ about 10 days ago which suggested he didn't have long left. I can't find the same article online, so perhaps this is more up-to-date news than you've been able to find.

 

I'll see if I can find the paper, but it may have been recycled.

 

EDIT: Still haven't had team confirmation, but hopefully the fact I posted my teams here provides a reasonable backup.

[Heef 166]

First points of the year for me:

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-38492516

 

John Berger, Booker Prize winning author.

 

Unlikely to be unique, but still good to be on the board early on dayboo.

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,337]

 

Thank you for your thoughtful quality analysis.

 

My joker is always at the top of the list so in this case it's Thomas Kennally.

I think it will be in mid January when we all know whether our picks our unique?

Just out of curiosity which do you think are my likely unique picks please?

What impressed me so much with your list is your clear strength for finding unique picks. Finding people who are unique picks but likely to obit to the extent I believe you have is a very tricky thing to pull off. I'd say that at least half of your picks are unique if not more.

Like me you go for a good variety of people and don't just concentrate on people from the same field.

I think Dean Stockwell is probably your weakest pick and strikes me as a 2018 name and I think the Swedish princess is probably one of your strongest picks imo.

When you have the time would you mind comparing and contrasting the different crumbles and telling me which you think is my strongest time and once you tell me I will then tell you which I think is my strongest team and my weakest.

It would be interesting to see if we agree!

Many Thanks

 

Yes, mid-January is usually when the updated DDP site is up. The ones I'm guessing could be UPs are Poul Schlüter, Arthur Irving, Hubert de Givenchy and Frederick Dent. Your joker Thomas Keneally, and Hans Rausing also stand a chance. But the thing is that many theme teams simply choose certain names to fill the empty spots. Thus, it's tricky to predict beforehand.

 

So, for instance, team A might be doing an author-themed team and looks for authors that are simply old if there aren't enough ill authors to go around. Team B has inside knowledge that one of the old authors picked by A also is ill (and not just old). In this case, B would not be rewarded with a unique bonus because A needed a full team.

 

Dean Stockwell may seem like a bit too early selection, but I know some more updated information that makes me fairly sure that he's a goner this year. Time will tell. Regarding people from different fields, while that shouldn't be a goal in itself, I do have to stop myself from picking too many people of the same occupation if it's a main team I'm doing. Right now, I have everything from a murderer, a nazi, and a porn star to a drug mule and a Micronesian ruler!

 

Having looked at all three crumbles, I believe that your apricot team will do best. I'm not super familiar with all of the names, but do believe you will score some hits with names like Hefner, Cardin, etc. Blueberry will come in close second, I think, while the team that shares your username unfortunately will do worst. I'm basing this on the fact that I regard people like Gina Lollobrigida, Gene Hackman, Pat Boone, Wilbur Smith, Prince Henrik, etc. as healthy enough to survive the year. Also, Mary Carlisle is someone who doesn't get media attention so there's an obit issue there. I do like the very active Facebook-page her family/friends have setup though.

Thank you! Interesting -I too had apricot as my selection for being the team that is likely to perform best BUT I had Gooseberry Crumble running as second behind it, perhaps even a close second with blueberry Crumble third.

 

Partially because there's a couple in my Gooseberry Crumble Team that are over 100- Goebbels press Secretary and the last Nuremberg Prosecutor which I also anticipate to be likely unique picks. Also 97 year old Dowager Duchess of Grafton.

But of course the role of the dice could surprise us all!

 

What would you say then was my most likely hit in team Gooseberry Crumble and my weakest name in team apricot Crumble please?

 

In terms of Mary Carlisle I'm kind of banking on Mail Online to save my bacon there!It's interesting how the internet has helped reinvigorate old movie stars making some of them into cult figures even silent movie stars!

 

Many Thanks again!

[themaninblack 2,112]

First points of the year for me:

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-38492516

 

John Berger, Booker Prize winning author.

 

Unlikely to be unique, but still good to be on the board early on dayboo.

 

Yes, folks. Anyone you know you've picked (or guess have been picked by others) please put on here so I know they've croaked while I'm putting on the teams/celebs in the next week or so...

 

Deathray asked about entrants. There was a huge spike post-Xmas which by my calculations will put the entries past the 500 mark for 2017.

 

But a lot of work still needs to be done. But first I have to round off 2016...

[Going Underground 74]

Wow, looking through this thread I have missed some slam dunk, own goal, sitters.

 

Being a smart arse I decided to leave Leah Bracknell out as I reckon she has a chance to make it through the year but in hindsight she still would have been a better pick than Brian Fucking Reader, What was I thinking. The Old Lag Reader was very likely just trying it on for a lighter sentence.

 

Totally missed Sara Coward and can't understand how she didn't appear on my radar. Same with Sims and Skellern. AH well, them's the breaks.

 

I've finished 5th in this quite recently but just can't seem to find those 3 or 4 extra crucial picks that could have me seriously challenging the top top players.

 

Even with my 'nailed on' picks i will struggle for top 20 this year. Here's hoping prison gets too much for a few of my lads.

[Deathray 2,940]

Anyone what Dr Z's team name was, so we can have a look to see if he's back?

 

Also any news on whether Margerie Heinn has returned with his team?

[themaninblack 2,112]

Anyone what Dr Z's team name was, so we can have a look to see if he's back?

 

Also any news on whether Margerie Heinn has returned with his team?

 

Curiously no. He emailed me at the beginning of the entry period asking about whether he could be let back into the forum. But I have no influence on that. As far as I know he didn't send in a team.

 

I don't think Magere entered a team. Jesus Jones hasn't returned but Octopus has and Mr C is back for a record equalling 19th time.

 

But I wont know solidly who's in and out for a while yet as I go through the entries. I've done a lot of prep today but will tackle the entries this evening...

[Deathray 2,940]

 

Anyone what Dr Z's team name was, so we can have a look to see if he's back?

 

Also any news on whether Margerie Heinn has returned with his team?

 

Curiously no. He emailed me at the beginning of the entry period asking about whether he could be let back into the forum. But I have no influence on that. As far as I know he didn't send in a team.

 

I don't think Magere entered a team. Jesus Jones hasn't returned but Octopus has and Mr C is back for a record equalling 19th time.

 

But I wont know solidly who's in and out for a while yet as I go through the entries. I've done a lot of prep today but will tackle the entries this evening...

 

 

Thanks, appreciate you can not be certain on anything until you've been through all the entries, which is clearly a long and arduous task that we are all grateful for. It's good to know Zorders hasn't jumped off a cliff or anything at the least. Not so reassuring on the Margere Hein front but I suppose it doesn't necessarily mean anything bad has happened, he might have just quietly given the game up.

[The Dead Cow 620]

 

First points of the year for me:

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-38492516

 

John Berger, Booker Prize winning author.

 

Unlikely to be unique, but still good to be on the board early on dayboo.

 

Yes, folks. Anyone you know you've picked (or guess have been picked by others) please put on here so I know they've croaked while I'm putting on the teams/celebs in the next week or so...

 

 

Derek Parfit

 

Awaiting obit

 

Edit: Times obit

[Toast 16,129]

 

Anyone what Dr Z's team name was, so we can have a look to see if he's back?

 

Also any news on whether Margerie Heinn has returned with his team?

 

Curiously no. He emailed me at the beginning of the entry period asking about whether he could be let back into the forum. But I have no influence on that. As far as I know he didn't send in a team.

 

I don't think Magere entered a team. Jesus Jones hasn't returned but Octopus has and Mr C is back for a record equalling 19th time.

 

But I wont know solidly who's in and out for a while yet as I go through the entries. I've done a lot of prep today but will tackle the entries this evening...

 

 

Damn, I thought you were talking about Hein first.

 

I couldn't give a shiny shite about Zorders.

[gcreptile 10,964]

 

 

 

 

In the 2016 thread I pretty accurately predicted the score of my Main Team. This time, I predict myself to be in the 130-140 range. I'll calculate something similar this evening for others.

Edit: I have a feeling, this year's teams are riskier. I calculate scores by weighting them with probabilities. The Love Boat 2016 got 119pts out of 160-170 possible. This time 200+ pts are possible but the probability is lower.

So I've calculated 141,7 pts for The Love Boat this year, out of 214 possible.

92,62 for Shameless, plus some points for Jay Clark, let's say, around 100pts.

86,27 pts for The B-Team (scores for Shameless and The B-Team are not up-to-date, as I have to adjust Drop 40/unique/obit chances).

 

The best possible team I could have fielded, according to my longlist would go on to score 146,52pts, but I've decided against picking Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and against picking Lucas Kinney (and I slightly attributed some more risk to The Love Boat).

 

The highest scoring person I didn't pick (bar the terrorists) was Jacques Chirac, followed by Joseph Kony and Marieke Vervoort.

 

Watch this space, if you're interested in my calculations for other teams (not entirely unselfish, as it is a research exercise).

 

DQSP: 108,47+7,75 (Mark Sims joker bonus)+ 8,1 (Paul Briggs) + 5,34 (Laurie Brokenshire) + 5,1 (Michael Perham) = 134,76 (Paul Briggs and Jagraj Singh would now be in my main team)

TLE: 102,46 + 7,80 (al-Baghdadi joker bonus) + Steve Pollard (1,31) + Susanne Cameron-Blackie (???) + Vincent Lambert (1,96) + Les Mutrie (5,61) = 119,14 plus Anna Raccoon (which I can't figure out)

TJS: 115,06 + joker bonus + 3,83 (Wayne Barrett) = 118,89 + joker bonus =

Heading Nowhere: 113,25pts + joker bonus =

Pan Breed: 120,39+8,99 (Gord Downie joker bonus)+ 5,28 (Anna Holmlund)=134,66

Bert Trautmann: 114,22 + 7,75 (Mark Sims joker bonus) + 4,36 (Jerome Golmard) + 4,14 (Patrick Cryne) = 130,47

Going Underground: 81,39 + 7,53 (Tracy McGiffin joker bonus) + Sonny West + Leon White + Paul Madeley + Rena Salmon + Jessi Zazu =

Cancel My Appointments:

JoeyRuss: 124,18 + 8,38 (Ben Suisala joker bonus) = 132,56

RadGuy:

Dead as a Doornail:

Still Life:

 

 

(I will add teams as I encounter them and find them interesting - the single names are those I had to add to my long list, and while I didn't do the same exercise for other teams last year, it should not be terribly surprising if my team scores best - because, after all, that's why I picked the people I picked. But the new-to-me picks can shake things up.)

Love to know what you make of my crumbles!!

I'll do it tomorrow, I promise! You have lots of different and new (to me) names, and I'm afraid I might not judge them right today.

Please do mine, I have my team in my signature and my own personal analysis on this page.

 

Done, and done.

 

Gooseberry Crumble, while your teams may not score highest, I think they are very classy teams, full of interesting stories. None of those "cancer-celebrities". And it looks as if two of your teams will score higher than me in my first year. Also, I couldn't check all the new people very thoroughly. Sometimes you don't read any news about new people, are they just content to be left alone, or is health the reason? It's often hard to tell. So if you know these people better than me (surely true for UK authors and scandinavian politicians), and you know their half-secret health issues, your score will be higher than what I have calculated.

 

If age is the reason someone was picked, I give a probability according to the fatality risk of a US social security recipient (statistics are available online). There is some adjustment if a person has heart troubles, is retired, looks bad, or gives interviews and the like... An 85 year old person basically has about a 15% of dying in the next 12 months, statistically. So it's 6 base points (for octogenarians) * 0,15 = 0,9. This is then multiplied with the chance of obiting. The base points get multiplied by the chance of being a unique hit, a Drop 40 pick, or the likelihood of an unnatural death.

 

So, a unique 85-year old with 90% chance of obiting (say, some classical musician) but no chance of Drop 40 or unnatural death and no extraordinary health problems gets (6+1*3)*0,15*0,9= 1,215

Some stage IV lung cancer patient (say, 80% of dying this year), say 56 years old, 50% obit chance, no chance of being unique or Drop 40 gets 9*0,8*0,5= 3,6

 

So, the scoring system favours cancer celebrities, but then what can you do...

 

Edit: Ok, enough deadpooling for now, I hardly got anything done at home in the past days...

[themaninblack 2,112]

 

 

 

 

 

In the 2016 thread I pretty accurately predicted the score of my Main Team. This time, I predict myself to be in the 130-140 range. I'll calculate something similar this evening for others.

Edit: I have a feeling, this year's teams are riskier. I calculate scores by weighting them with probabilities. The Love Boat 2016 got 119pts out of 160-170 possible. This time 200+ pts are possible but the probability is lower.

So I've calculated 141,7 pts for The Love Boat this year, out of 214 possible.

92,62 for Shameless, plus some points for Jay Clark, let's say, around 100pts.

86,27 pts for The B-Team (scores for Shameless and The B-Team are not up-to-date, as I have to adjust Drop 40/unique/obit chances).

 

The best possible team I could have fielded, according to my longlist would go on to score 146,52pts, but I've decided against picking Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and against picking Lucas Kinney (and I slightly attributed some more risk to The Love Boat).

 

The highest scoring person I didn't pick (bar the terrorists) was Jacques Chirac, followed by Joseph Kony and Marieke Vervoort.

 

Watch this space, if you're interested in my calculations for other teams (not entirely unselfish, as it is a research exercise).

 

DQSP: 108,47+7,75 (Mark Sims joker bonus)+ 8,1 (Paul Briggs) + 5,34 (Laurie Brokenshire) + 5,1 (Michael Perham) = 134,76 (Paul Briggs and Jagraj Singh would now be in my main team)

TLE: 102,46 + 7,80 (al-Baghdadi joker bonus) + Steve Pollard (1,31) + Susanne Cameron-Blackie (???) + Vincent Lambert (1,96) + Les Mutrie (5,61) = 119,14 plus Anna Raccoon (which I can't figure out)

TJS: 115,06 + joker bonus + 3,83 (Wayne Barrett) = 118,89 + joker bonus =

Heading Nowhere: 113,25pts + joker bonus =

Pan Breed: 120,39+8,99 (Gord Downie joker bonus)+ 5,28 (Anna Holmlund)=134,66

Bert Trautmann: 114,22 + 7,75 (Mark Sims joker bonus) + 4,36 (Jerome Golmard) + 4,14 (Patrick Cryne) = 130,47

Going Underground: 81,39 + 7,53 (Tracy McGiffin joker bonus) + Sonny West + Leon White + Paul Madeley + Rena Salmon + Jessi Zazu =

Cancel My Appointments:

JoeyRuss: 124,18 + 8,38 (Ben Suisala joker bonus) = 132,56

RadGuy:

Dead as a Doornail:

Still Life:

 

 

(I will add teams as I encounter them and find them interesting - the single names are those I had to add to my long list, and while I didn't do the same exercise for other teams last year, it should not be terribly surprising if my team scores best - because, after all, that's why I picked the people I picked. But the new-to-me picks can shake things up.)

Love to know what you make of my crumbles!!

I'll do it tomorrow, I promise! You have lots of different and new (to me) names, and I'm afraid I might not judge them right today.

Please do mine, I have my team in my signature and my own personal analysis on this page.

 

Done, and done.

 

Gooseberry Crumble, while your teams may not score highest, I think they are very classy teams, full of interesting stories. None of those "cancer-celebrities". And it looks as if two of your teams will score higher than me in my first year. Also, I couldn't check all the new people very thoroughly. Sometimes you don't read any news about new people, are they just content to be left alone, or is health the reason? It's often hard to tell. So if you know these people better than me (surely true for UK authors and scandinavian politicians), and you know their half-secret health issues, your score will be higher than what I have calculated.

 

If age is the reason someone was picked, I give a probability according to the fatality risk of a US social security recipient (statistics are available online). There is some adjustment if a person has heart troubles, is retired, looks bad, or gives interviews and the like... An 85 year old person basically has about a 15% of dying in the next 12 months, statistically. So it's 6 base points (for octogenarians) * 0,15 = 0,9. This is then multiplied with the chance of obiting. The base points get multiplied by the chance of being a unique hit, a Drop 40 pick, or the likelihood of an unnatural death.

 

So, a unique 85-year old with 90% chance of obiting (say, some classical musician) but no chance of Drop 40 or unnatural death and no extraordinary health problems gets (6+1*3)*0,15*0,9= 1,215

Some stage IV lung cancer patient (say, 80% of dying this year), say 56 years old, 50% obit chance, no chance of being unique or Drop 40 gets 9*0,8*0,5= 3,6

 

So, the scoring system favours cancer celebrities, but then what can you do...

 

Edit: Ok, enough deadpooling for now, I hardly got anything done at home in the past days...

 

 

Welcome to my World...

[Deathray 2,940]

 

 

 

 

 

 

In the 2016 thread I pretty accurately predicted the score of my Main Team. This time, I predict myself to be in the 130-140 range. I'll calculate something similar this evening for others.

Edit: I have a feeling, this year's teams are riskier. I calculate scores by weighting them with probabilities. The Love Boat 2016 got 119pts out of 160-170 possible. This time 200+ pts are possible but the probability is lower.

So I've calculated 141,7 pts for The Love Boat this year, out of 214 possible.

92,62 for Shameless, plus some points for Jay Clark, let's say, around 100pts.

86,27 pts for The B-Team (scores for Shameless and The B-Team are not up-to-date, as I have to adjust Drop 40/unique/obit chances).

 

The best possible team I could have fielded, according to my longlist would go on to score 146,52pts, but I've decided against picking Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and against picking Lucas Kinney (and I slightly attributed some more risk to The Love Boat).

 

The highest scoring person I didn't pick (bar the terrorists) was Jacques Chirac, followed by Joseph Kony and Marieke Vervoort.

 

Watch this space, if you're interested in my calculations for other teams (not entirely unselfish, as it is a research exercise).

 

DQSP: 108,47+7,75 (Mark Sims joker bonus)+ 8,1 (Paul Briggs) + 5,34 (Laurie Brokenshire) + 5,1 (Michael Perham) = 134,76 (Paul Briggs and Jagraj Singh would now be in my main team)

TLE: 102,46 + 7,80 (al-Baghdadi joker bonus) + Steve Pollard (1,31) + Susanne Cameron-Blackie (???) + Vincent Lambert (1,96) + Les Mutrie (5,61) = 119,14 plus Anna Raccoon (which I can't figure out)

TJS: 115,06 + joker bonus + 3,83 (Wayne Barrett) = 118,89 + joker bonus =

Heading Nowhere: 113,25pts + joker bonus =

Pan Breed: 120,39+8,99 (Gord Downie joker bonus)+ 5,28 (Anna Holmlund)=134,66

Bert Trautmann: 114,22 + 7,75 (Mark Sims joker bonus) + 4,36 (Jerome Golmard) + 4,14 (Patrick Cryne) = 130,47

Going Underground: 81,39 + 7,53 (Tracy McGiffin joker bonus) + Sonny West + Leon White + Paul Madeley + Rena Salmon + Jessi Zazu =

Cancel My Appointments:

JoeyRuss: 124,18 + 8,38 (Ben Suisala joker bonus) = 132,56

RadGuy:

Dead as a Doornail:

Still Life:

 

 

(I will add teams as I encounter them and find them interesting - the single names are those I had to add to my long list, and while I didn't do the same exercise for other teams last year, it should not be terribly surprising if my team scores best - because, after all, that's why I picked the people I picked. But the new-to-me picks can shake things up.)

Love to know what you make of my crumbles!!

I'll do it tomorrow, I promise! You have lots of different and new (to me) names, and I'm afraid I might not judge them right today.

Please do mine, I have my team in my signature and my own personal analysis on this page.

 

Done, and done.

 

Gooseberry Crumble, while your teams may not score highest, I think they are very classy teams, full of interesting stories. None of those "cancer-celebrities". And it looks as if two of your teams will score higher than me in my first year. Also, I couldn't check all the new people very thoroughly. Sometimes you don't read any news about new people, are they just content to be left alone, or is health the reason? It's often hard to tell. So if you know these people better than me (surely true for UK authors and scandinavian politicians), and you know their half-secret health issues, your score will be higher than what I have calculated.

 

If age is the reason someone was picked, I give a probability according to the fatality risk of a US social security recipient (statistics are available online). There is some adjustment if a person has heart troubles, is retired, looks bad, or gives interviews and the like... An 85 year old person basically has about a 15% of dying in the next 12 months, statistically. So it's 6 base points (for octogenarians) * 0,15 = 0,9. This is then multiplied with the chance of obiting. The base points get multiplied by the chance of being a unique hit, a Drop 40 pick, or the likelihood of an unnatural death.

 

So, a unique 85-year old with 90% chance of obiting (say, some classical musician) but no chance of Drop 40 or unnatural death and no extraordinary health problems gets (6+1*3)*0,15*0,9= 1,215

Some stage IV lung cancer patient (say, 80% of dying this year), say 56 years old, 50% obit chance, no chance of being unique or Drop 40 gets 9*0,8*0,5= 3,6

 

So, the scoring system favours cancer celebrities, but then what can you do...

 

Edit: Ok, enough deadpooling for now, I hardly got anything done at home in the past days...

 

 

Welcome to my World...

 

 

If you need any assistance with writing bios or anything else I may be able to assist a little bit.