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The Mad Hatter

Thoughts and opinions on the death list 2019

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12 minutes ago, TomTomTelekom said:
Congratulations, I like the list. john wtfcirick is the only obscure choice for my taste, he may be old, ill or whatsoever, but really famous he is not. On the other side there are so many brave choices, new and big names.  Gorbatchev or Tina Turner are real famous people that everyone knows in every hidden corner of the world.
 
Happy and Healthy new Year to all of you :pop:

McCririck is really famous in the UK and DL is a UK forum.

You have to accept that the 50 names picked every year are going to be names that the average UK citizen is going to have a degree of familiarity with.

Anyway, Paddytwat will be along soon to blame Brexit for that so, if Kier Starmer/Kenneth Clarke/ Richard Branson or similar can get on the DL committee you may see a fully European flavoured list for 2020.....:D

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15 minutes ago, Lord Fellatio Nelson said:

McCririck is really famous in the UK and DL is a UK forum.

You have to accept that the 50 names picked every year are going to be names that the average UK citizen is going to have a degree of familiarity with.

Anyway, Paddytwat will be along soon to blame Brexit for that so, if Kier Starmer/Kenneth Clarke/ Richard Branson or similar can get on the DL committee you may see a fully European flavoured list for 2020.....:D

 

Pretty much this

 

There are loads of people that are really famous to the point of being a household name in the UK but pretty much unheard of elsewhere. Jeremy Kyle is a great example

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Just now, Weebl said:

 

Pretty much this

 

There are loads of people that are really famous to the point of being a household name in the UK but pretty much unheard of elsewhere. Jeremy Kyle is a great example

Or Linda Henry....:lol:

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I would have preferred to see Peter Sutcliffe & Meatloaf on the list instead of Tina Turner & Dick Van Dyke, other than that It looks like a strong line up.

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Nice nice list! I think it will do around 14-15 hits!

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I've usually done this by now, but first thoughts:

 

Kirk Douglas - Boring top pick. May or may not die.

Herman Wouk - Somehow still alive.

Olivia de Havilland - Healthiest centenarian the list has ever seen?

Prince Philip - On the downward slope, but slowly imo.

Leah Bracknell - Terminal lung cancer is terminal lung cancer,  I think she'll be gone this year.

Vera Lynn - Quieter than she used to be, could be one of the obligatory "random old folk on the list for year who die".

Robert Mugabe - Hospital for several months last year, time is nearly up.

Jimmy Carter - Should beat Bush's record, but reaching the Expiry Date for former Presidents and cancer survivor.

Doris Day - She got hit by a train over 80 years ago, and still breathes. Will take a lot to take down Doris

Pierre Cardin - Just really old?

Bob Dole - Looked like fucking shite at Bush's funeral, has to be a good bet for 2019.
Henry Kissinger - 96 must be close to 200 for his weight. Didn't similar heavy built Al Molinaro go at 96? Hmm.
Jerry Stiller - No idea about his health. Interesting newcomer.

Javier Perez de Cuellar - Zzzzzzzz. Death hoax in late 2018, maybe he's doing a Bill Pertwee.  

Bob Barker - Lots of hooha about him on here end of last year. Think hes on mend though.

Murray Walker - Old, still chats apparently, smashed cancer to bits in his 90s - surely a few laps left in his tank.
Akihito - Frail for years, surprisingly still around.
Betty White - Looked frailer last year but not to the point I'd get worried.

Gordon Banks - DL Cmme loves old footballers, clearly. Has Banks been quieter than usual of late or did I tune out all the Engerlund stuff last summer?

Hosni Mubarak - Not convinced he's close to the end.
June Brown - Clearly going downhill on Eastenders. Not got too long left.

Stirling Moss - Shocked he made it this far. OoO says wont see 90, I believe him.
Bob Hawke - Says he wont see May, hospital in and out in 2018, and his wife was crying talking on TV about his health few days ago. Think his goose is cooked.
Alan Greenspan - Really old, and random death hoax last year.

Jacques Chirac - Increasingly frail, likely a top pick.

Dick van Dyke - Super healthy? Trying to do a  repeat Aznavour imo.

Nobby Stiles - Great pick.

Barbara Walters - Quiet and demented, sleeper smart pick.
Honor Blackman - Very old. Guessing Cmme has Avengers fans.

Harry Belafonte - Good pick, A lister looking old.
Desmond Tutu - In and out of hospital, in and out of the list

d'Estaing - Just old

Ed Asner - This years surprise comeback.
Vanessa Redgrave - COPD so time limited but looked OK in recent public.

Jimmy Greaves - Looks like shit, cant have long left.
Sidney Poitier - About time this frail permanent A lister got on the list.
Valerie Harper - Quiet dying? Quiet putting feet up and chilling? Who knows.
 Cleo Laine - Dunno much about this pick.

Loretta Lynn - In lot of ill health, likely a big pick in 2019.
Gorbachev - Finally! Frail, increasingly poorly, might be here in nick of time.
Tony Britton - Really old actor. Thought his window of opportunity had long passed!

John McCririck - Looks fucked tbh
Clive James - Looked fucked tbh. Didn't I say that in every year since 2011?

Prunella Scales - Rallied enough to do another TV series. Gone mentally, OK physically, could go downhill rapidly within 12 months though. Think Timothy might got within 6 months of her tbh.
Little Richard - frail A-lister with health issues, good pick.

Larry King - Just old?

Tina Turner - Seems to be on the mend from rotten health.

Shane McGowan - Fuck yer Gazza and Mark E Smiths, this is the one that'll gut me if he goes. Getting married suddenly end of 2018 after 30-40 years cohabiting is a huge warning bell.

Ginger Baker - How is he still alive? COPD, for yonks.

Johnny Clegg - He got pancreatic cancer in 2015, got remission, it came back, so he got the full Whipple Surgery in 2017, only for his pancreatic cancer to come back when he no longer had most of his pancreas etc and spread to his lungs. You don't need me or A Google Dr to tell you he is fucked.
 
So saying that, and adding 2 to the score for the inevitable long time oldies who just don't wake up one morning, I think a reasonable target for this list is 16.  In fact, IF enough of the long termers go in 2019, the record might be under threat. There's enough ill, frail and generally ancient picks to go around.

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Great analysis msc, don't think anyone here could have put it better than that

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My initial thoughts

 

Kirk Douglas - Think 2019 will be his year

Herman Wouk - Could go anytime

Olivia de Havilland - Still healthy but you can't drop a centenarian

Prince Philip - He'll make it to at least autumn then he'll be in the 50/50 zone.

Leah Bracknell - Think she'll finally go this year

Vera Lynn - Quiet of late, 2019 could well be her year.

Robert Mugabe - Now in the 50/50 zone. 

Jimmy Carter - Should have been dropped this year but understand he would be a gut-wrenching miss. 

Doris Day - She should be fine for 2020

Pierre Cardin - Too old to be dropped

Bob Dole - Think he'll be an autumn goner. 
Henry Kissinger - To old to be dropped now. 
Jerry Stiller - Who knows

Javier Perez de Cuellar - Subject of a death hoax late last year, think he's a goner this year

Bob Barker - In and out of hospital. Sensible keep. 

Murray Walker - Think he'll be alright this year now at an age of a DL bedblocker.
Akihito - Frail, think he's returned to the list at the nick of time. 
Betty White - Too old and big to be dropped. 

Gordon Banks - His return might have come with a precaution

Hosni Mubarak - Still got at least a couple of years left in him. 
June Brown - A potential lucky keep.

Stirling Moss - How is he still alive?, a goner for sure this year.
Bob Hawke - Gone by the British spring. 
Alan Greenspan - Random but could be worthy. 

Jacques Chirac - Frail but could last a bit yet. 

Dick van Dyke - No matter how sprightly he is, think he's a lock until he goes.

Nobby Stiles - Had to return, goner for sure this year.

Barbara Walters - Maybe
Honor Blackman - Think she'll stay on the DL until she goes but not this year.

Harry Belafonte - Time he made his DL debut. 
Desmond Tutu - In the 50/50 zone.

d'Estaing - Still makes public appearances, possible attempt to outjinx

Ed Asner - Most surprising returnee. 
Vanessa Redgrave - Wouldn't surprise me if she goes this year. 

Jimmy Greaves - Looks horrid but may last a bit yet. 
Sidney Poitier - A summer goner. 
Valerie Harper - Quiet of late but sensible keep. 
Cleo Laine - Interesting pick, still performing though.  

Loretta Lynn - Very ill, an autumn goner. 
Gorbachev - Overdue DL debut, in the 50/50 zone. 
Tony Britton - Really old so who knows

John McCririck - Looks horrid, but I think he'll make it to at least autumn. 
Clive James - Think it's finally his year. 

Prunella Scales - Think December will be too much for her. 
Little Richard - Another 50's music survivor making his overdue DL debut. 

Larry King - Could be a lucky pick. 

Tina Turner - Probably time she made her DL debut but just maybe.

Shane McGowan - Long overdue on the Deathlist, 2019 could well be his year finally. 

Ginger Baker - More touring on the diary, think he's an autumn goner at the earliest. 

Johnny Clegg - Totally fucked.

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19 hours ago, Lafaucheuse said:

With a little step back i would say

1) where the fuck is Newton-John 

2) where the fuck is the pope ??? 

 

Who would you drop from last year to keep them on the list ?

Kirk Douglas
Herman Wouk
Olivia de Havilland
Prince Phillip
Leah Bracknell    
Vera Lynne
Robert Mugabe
Jimmy Carter
Doris Day
Pierre Cardin        
Bob Dole
Henry Kissinger
Javier Perez de Cuellar
Prunella Scales
Bob Barker
Betty White
Hosni Mumbarak
June Brown
Stirling Moss
Dick Van Dyke
Honor Blackman
Jimmy Greaves
Valery Giscard d'Estaing
Valerie Harper
Clive James

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7 minutes ago, Wee Jum said:

Who would you drop from last year to keep them on the list ?

Van Dyke obviously, and probably Cardin or d'Estaing. Still going strong when compared to Benedict, and ONJ seems to have taken a turn for the worse in fall 2018. Like mr Reaper once said: "you're the one that I want"

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7 hours ago, Weebl said:

 

Pretty much this

 

There are loads of people that are really famous to the point of being a household name in the UK but pretty much unheard of elsewhere. Jeremy Kyle is a great example

You could say the same about Bob Barker, Ed Asner and Valerie Harper, big names on US TV but barely known in the UK. 

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6 hours ago, Wee Jum said:

Who would you drop from last year to keep them on the list ?

Kirk Douglas
Herman Wouk
Olivia de Havilland
Prince Phillip
Leah Bracknell    
Vera Lynne
Robert Mugabe
Jimmy Carter
Doris Day
Pierre Cardin        
Bob Dole
Henry Kissinger
Javier Perez de Cuellar
Prunella Scales
Bob Barker
Betty White
Hosni Mumbarak
June Brown
Stirling Moss
Dick Van Dyke
Honor Blackman
Jimmy Greaves
Valery Giscard d'Estaing
Valerie Harper
Clive James

DVD is more likely to see the year out then Pope Nazi, James Bond and ONJ

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I miss Terry Jones on te list 

 I think the commitee suffers from Post Traumatic Aretha Franklin Disorder, so they put on a lot of music related people just in case.

 

But im glad they included Shane, Harry, Jerry and Ginger.

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1 hour ago, Grim Deeper said:

I miss Terry Jones on te list 

 I think the commitee suffers from Post Traumatic Anita Franklin Disorder, so they put on a lot of music related people just in case.

 

But im glad they included Shane, Harry, Jerry and Ginger.

Think I've missed that one, was she related to Aretha Franklin? :P

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11 minutes ago, ThereWillBeDeaths7 said:

Think I've missed that one, was she related to Aretha Franklin? :P

Haha that is why I usually dont post things from my phone :old:

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15 hours ago, Wee Jum said:

Who would you drop from last year to keep them on the list ?

Kirk Douglas
Herman Wouk
Olivia de Havilland
Prince Phillip
Leah Bracknell    
Vera Lynne
Robert Mugabe
Jimmy Carter
Doris Day
Pierre Cardin        
Bob Dole
Henry Kissinger
Javier Perez de Cuellar
Prunella Scales
Bob Barker
Betty White
Hosni Mumbarak
June Brown
Stirling Moss
Dick Van Dyke
Honor Blackman
Jimmy Greaves
Valery Giscard d'Estaing
Valerie Harper
Clive James

yeah absolutely, Van Dyke or even Mubarak could have been dropped

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:party: Don't forget to celebrate the DL birthdays (when they are reached) :birthday:

 

17.01.1922   Betty White  :birthday2:

19.01.1920   Javier Perez de Cuellar :birthday2:

30.01.1937   Vanessa Redgrave :birthday2:

02.02.1926   Valéry Giscard d`Estaing :birthday2:

16.02.1927   June Brown :birthday2:

20.02.1927   Sidney Poitier :birthday2:

20.02.1940   Jimmy Greaves :birthday2:

21.02.1924   Robert Mugabe :birthday2:

01.03.1927   Harry Belafonte :birthday2:

02.03.1931   Mikhail Gorbachev :birthday2:

06.03.1926   Alan Greenspan :birthday2:

20.03.1917   Vera Lynn :birthday2:

03.04.1922   Doris Day :birthday2: but :skill2:

14.04.1932   Loretta Lynn :birthday2:

17.04.1940   John McCririck :birthday2: but :skill2:

04.05.1928   Hosni Mubarak :birthday2:

18.05.1942   Nobby Stiles :birthday2:

27.05.1915   Herman Wouk :skill2:

27.05.1923   Henry Kissinger :birthday2:

07.06.1953   Johnny Clegg :birthday2:

08.06.1927   Jerry Stiller :birthday2:

09.06.1924   Tony Britton :birthday2:

10.06.1921   Prince Philip Duke of Edinburgh :birthday2:

22.06.1932   Prunella Scales :birthday2:

01.07.1916   Olivia de Havilland :birthday2:

02.07.1922   Pierre Cardin :birthday2:

12.07.1964   Leah Bracknell :birthday2:

22.07.1923   Bob Dole

19.08.1939   Ginger Baker

22.08.1925   Honor Blackman

22.08.1939   Valerie Harper

17.09.1929   Stirling Moss

25.09.1929   Barbara Walters

01.10.1924   Jimmy Carter

07.10.1931   Desmond Tutu

07.10.1939   Clive James

10.10.1923   Murray Walker

28.10.1927   Cleo Laine

15.11.1929   Ed Asner

19.11.1932   Larry King

26.11.1939   Tina Turner

29.11.1932   Jacques Chirac

05.12.1932   Little Richard

09.12.1916   Kirk Douglas

09.12.1929   Bob Hawke   :skill2:

12.12.1923   Bob Barker

13.12.1925   Dick van Dyke

23.12.1933   Emperor Akihito

25.12.1957   Shane MacGowan

30.12.1937   Gordon Banks   :skill2:

 

 

There's a nice foursome in June: 07.06. Johnny Clegg, 08.06. Jerry Stiller, 09.06. Tony Britton and 10.06. Prince Philip. Which party pooper will  croak? :P

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Odds for this year:

 

1)Kirk Douglas: 50%. He is old as fuck, if he is not immortal this or next could be the year. Has looked frail for years, stroke in 1997.

2)Herman Wouk: 60% This sort of Jewish zombie seems to go on forever; has sold his home and lives on oxygen, beyond human possibilities.

3)Olivia de Havilland: 20% Still invincible. Apparently.

4)Prince Philip: 40% He is not in immediate danger. Has had some issues but he's well cured. Probably guaranteed to 100.

5)Leah Bracknell: 30% She looked excellent in late December so I start to suspect she is either a genetical freak or she is faking it.

6)Vera Lynn: 45% Old and would be soooo nice to replace her once for all, but seems to be holding her own

7)Robert Mugabe: 10% Dictators never die. Kaunda, Arap Moi and Mugabe will be there in 10 years. At least one of them.

8)Jimmy Carter: 10% Too healthy to die as of now

9)Doris Day: 20% Old old but not frail. Won't do a Carol Channing this year.

10)Pierre Cardin: 40% just a random old man, but still out and about

11)Bob Dole: 70% He is a medical freak! How the hell is he still going?

12)Henry Kissinger: 30% Fat and old, but his will to live is still strong.

13)Jerry Stiller: 60% A wasted pick, but after the recent health scare he is not so wasted. Probably a goner.

14)JPdC: 30% Apparently still doing well. Plus boredom keeps him alive.

15)Bob Barker: 60% has had some issues last year. Not a bad pick indeed.

16)Murray Walker: 40% Apparently doing well. Still incredibly ancient.

17)Akihito: 10% Too young. He's Japanese, folks!

18)Betty White: 10% too early, will make it to 100 and beyond.

19)Gordon Banks: 20% The whole 1966 squad has been on the edge of deaths for years. He seems the healthiest of them all.

20)Hosni Mubarak: 5% Worst pick.

21)June Brown: 10% Way too active to die

22)Stirling Moss: 90% Oh, come on, he should have died last year!

23)Bob Hawke: 90% I believe the man himself,

24)Alan Greenspan: 5% Out and about.

25)Jacques Chirac 40% Not a bad pick but maybe a year too early

26)Dick Van Dyke: 5% This guy will outlive everyone in this world

27)Nobby Stiles: 90% Rationally fucked. Or are they hiding his death?

28)Barbara Walters: 20% Only National Enquirer bullshit. Another Jew who is showing good genes.

29)Honor Blackman: 10% usual wasted pick

30)Harry Belafonte: 10% Indestructible

31)Desmond Tutu: 40% long overdue, but seems alright for now.

32)Valery Giscard d'Estaing: 5% Very active and healthy

33)Ed Asner: 5% Old Jews on this list are way too many. Not going anywhere.

34)Vanessa Redgrave: 5% bad bad bad pick.

35)Jimmy Greaves: 50% Has been in bad health for years. But still seems invincible. That squad is cursed to be always ill but never die!

36)Sidney Poitier: 10% Won't die this year.

37)Valerie Harper: 40% Eternal cancer sufferer.

38)Cleo Laine: 10% What a wasted pick

39)Loretta Lynn: 50% Ok, she has had some bad luck. But I reckon the will to live is stronger.

40)Gorbachev: 60% Come on, illness has taken a toll on him,...

41)Tony Britton: 60% Random old guy, but recently widowed. Probably not in the best shape.

42)John McCririck: 60% Based on looks it will be 100% but he insists he is well.

43)Clive James: 60% Eternal cancer sufferer, but this could finally be it.

44)Prunella Scales: 10% Too early, too early.

45)Little Richard: 20% Seemingly an unsinkable guy as many on this list.

46)Larry King: 5% another old Jew who is not gonna die...

47)Tina Turner: 5% Wasted pick

48)Shane McGowan: 5% Out and about.

49)Ginger Baker: 20% COPD could take years still.

50)Johnny Clegg: 70% time to go.

 

So based on this admittedly conservative analysis there will be 12 hits (more than 50%): Wouk, Dole, Barker, Stiller, Moss, Hawke, Stiles, Gorbachev, Britton, McCririck, James, Clegg.

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So January passed without a hit. Last time it happened in 2015, but that was a good year actually, I seriously doubt this will be.

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3 minutes ago, drol said:

So January passed without a hit. Last time it happened in 2015, but that was a good year actually, I seriously doubt this will be.

Stil another 6 hours in the UK for a January death to be announced (and what did we decide about GHW bush. December or November 2018?)

 

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At the moment everything seems to have gone quiet. I am just hoping it is saving it all up for my Deathlist Cup picks.

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On 02/01/2019 at 16:00, Book said:

:party: Don't forget to celebrate the DL birthdays (when they are rached) :birthday:

 

17.01.1922   Betty White

19.01.1920   Javier Perez de Cuellar

30.01.1937   Vanessa Redgrave

02.02.1926   Valéry Giscard d`Estaing

16.02.1927   June Brown

20.02.1927   Sidney Poitier

20.02.1940   Jimmy Greaves

21.02.1924   Robert Mugabe

01.03.1927   Harry Belafonte

02.03.1931   Mikhail Gorbachev

06.03.1926   Alan Greenspan

20.03.1917   Vera Lynn

03.04.1922   Doris Day

14.04.1932   Loretta Lynn

17.04.1940   John McCririck

04.05.1928   Hosni Mubarak

18.05.1942   Nobby Stiles

27.05.1915   Herman Wouk

27.05.1923   Henry Kissinger

07.06.1953   Johnny Clegg

08.06.1927   Jerry Stiller

09.06.1924   Tony Britton

10.06.1921   Prince Philip Duke of Edinburgh

22.06.1932   Prunella Scales

01.07.1916   Olivia de Havilland

02.07.1922   Pierre Cardin

12.07.1964   Leah Bracknell

22.07.1923   Bob Dole

19.08.1939   Ginger Baker

22.08.1925   Honor Blackman

22.08.1939   Valerie Harper

17.09.1929   Stirling Moss

25.09.1929   Barbara Walters

01.10.1924   Jimmy Carter

07.10.1931   Desmond Tutu

07.10.1939   Clive James

10.10.1923   Murray Walker

28.10.1927   Cleo Laine

15.11.1929   Ed Asner

19.11.1932   Larry King

26.11.1939   Tina Turner

29.11.1932   Jacques Chirac

05.12.1932   Little Richard

09.12.1916   Kirk Douglas

09.12.1929   Bob Hawke

12.12.1923   Bob Barker

13.12.1925   Dick van Dyke

23.12.1933   Emperor Akihito

25.12.1957   Shane MacGowan

30.12.1937   Gordon Banks

 

 

There's a nice foursome in June: 07.06. Johnny Clegg, 08.06. Jerry Stiller, 09.06. Tony Britton and 10.06. Prince Philip. Which party pooper will  croak? :P

5 same date pairs must be unusual odds.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Following the discussion in the QEII thread about the relative fame of Deathlist picks I thought I would begin to look at this in a bit more depth. As I said the criteria that contributes to a persons inclusion is dependent on three things
 

Age  - this is a fact (unless you are Doris Day) and it is easy to rank them on this

 

Fame - There is a fame threshold below which someone would not be considered Deathlist worthy but that is pretty low if you have;

 

Illness/Lifestyle - This is the most important but it is also the most difficult because there are the Clive James approach. "Look guys I am dying,.........still dying.........honestly I could go any day now.........publishes book........wow I am still here........I'll be gone soon......" or there is the Lewis Collins approach. Nothing and then turns up dead one day or the halfway house ala Val Kilmer "there is nothing wrong with me" but appears in public looking awful and there is much speculation

 

However I have tried to address the level of fame and ranked this years picks in fame order. 

 

I appreciate this is highly subjective but I have tried to consider worldwide fame and the media reaction to any of these deaths.

 

1                     Prince Philip Duke of Edinburgh

2                     Kirk Douglas

3                     Jimmy Carter

4                     Tina Turner

5                     Mikhail Gorbachev

6                      Robert Mugabe

7                     Doris Day

8                     Olivia De Havilland

9                     Sidney Poitier

10                  Vera Lynn

11                 Harry Belafonte

12                  Dick van Dyke

13                  Desmond Tutu

14                 Emperor Akihito

15                  Little Richard

16                 Jacques Chirac

17                  Hosni Mubarak

18                  Pierre Cardin

19                 Betty White

20                 Ed Asner

21                 Stirling Moss

22                 Larry King

23                 Nobby Stiles

24                  Gordon Banks

25                 Murray Walker

26                 Clive James

27                  Jimmy Greaves

28                 Bob Hawke

29                 Valery Giscard d'Estaing

30                 Herman Wouk

31                 Henry Kissinger        

32                 Bob Dole

33                 Alan Greenspan

34                 Javier Perez de Cuellar

35                 Honor Blackman

36                 Vanessa Redgrave

37                 Prunella Scales

38                  Ginger Baker

39                  Loretta Lynn

40                  Valerie Harper

41                  June Brown

42                 Shane MacGowan

43                  Bob Barker

44                 Barbara Walters

45                 Cleo Laine

46                  Jerry Stiller

47                 Tony Britton

48                 John McCririck

49                  Leah Bracknell

50                  Johnny Clegg

If you want to disagree just DM  me your fame rankings and I will combine them into a DL overall fame ranking and then I might try to plot age and fame against position on list to determine if there is a correlation.

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I could not understand what would make you think Shane MacGowan is more famous than Barbara Walters, Bob Barker and Jerry Stiller

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