Though that new thread is unnecessary, I do like the idea of discussing whether the record will be broken or not. We are now ahead of 2017 by about 10 days, who’s 15th hit is about a month ahead 3 years ago. However, I’m not 100% sure that it’ll be breaking the record. I’d call it a coin flip at this point.
The thing about 2017 is that when the 14th hit came around, there was still many obvious dead certs still alive at that point (thinking about Downie and King Michael in particular). This year? Probably the closest to a dead cert is Leon Spinks at this point, and he’s not a guaranteed death either.
Trebek’s treatment is working right now, while Tom Smith has his tumors shrunken. I think at this point those two will more likely see the year out than not (though a sudden downturn for either would not shock).
Outside of that, there’s certainly potential for some of the rest (like Delors losing his wife, or Joanne Woodward feeling such a has to be this year name), but none of them are guarantees. In fact, a big reason why we’re at 14 hits today is because the old’s people lottery has been successful on this years list. I’d actually consider 10 of the 14 hits part of that old people’s lottery (even folk like Stirling Moss is part of that cause he could’ve died at any point). The four who weren’t old people’s lottery names? RBG, who people could deduce that she couldn’t really fight off her pancreatic cancer last year; Terry Jones, who while he had dementia there were some end of the year warning signs that he was likely on his way out; Genesis P-Orridge, who was really ill with leukemia; and Daniel Arap Moi, who, unlike the others over 90, had a ton of life threatening ailments at the end of last year that made him a sooner rather than later name.
I’m not saying the record is impossible, it is an enema year after all, but I just wouldn’t be surprised either way with what happens.