Alright, I said I would be making predictions for Super Tuesday, so here they are:
Vermont is obviously super safe for Bernie. No way around it. I think Colorado, Maine, and Utah are very similar cases. So there’s that.
I also think Bernie will end the up the winner in California. The thing to watch though is the margin that Bernie wins by. If he’s only able to win by 5 points, not really great. If he’s able to win by 20 points and no one else reaches the 15 point threshold, well that would be amazing. So it’s all about the margin in California.
Minnesota was a special case, but now that Klobuchar is out I think Bernie will win it by a comfortable margin (had she not dropped out today, I actually would’ve given her the edge due to her popularity in the state). Then there’s Massachusetts. It’s Bernie against Warren, and it’s looking like Bernie will beat her in the state. That should be enough for her to drop out, but tbh, I think she’s staying as a spoiler candidate at this point. It would be great if she actually dropped out if/when she loses Massachusetts, but I have my doubts.
So those are all the states solid for Bernie imo.
I think Alabama and Tennessee will produce really good results for Biden. On paper, Oklahoma and Arkansas should produce good results for him too, but something tells me that Biden might actually underperform a bit in those two states. I still expect him to win mind, but if an upset happens I wouldn’t be surprised.
So that leaves three states that I think could swing either way. That is, Texas, North Carolina, and Virginia. On paper, those three should be good for Biden, but I know Bernie is making a play in both of those states. So I don’t know how much they really will go for Biden. If Bernie wins all three of those states, it’ll be a massive night for him. If he doesn’t do so well in those states, his night will still be alright, but then it means that it’ll likely head into a contested convention. All I know is that those last three states will really determine how the race will unfold in the end...