Further to the above, I'll make a casual prediction: 2018 will go higher than 2017, with at least 535,000 deaths and probably over 540,000. I say this not because of some nefarious plot, but because of a number of factors:
- Continuation of existing demographic trends as regards an ageing and growing population
- Life expectancy in the UK having slowed in its previously long-established rise quite significantly from about 2010 onwards.
- Unusually high numbers of flu cases in Jan to March 2018 with a late flu season
- Excess heatwave deaths in the current long heatwave
- Worsening bed crisis in the NHS (thank you gvt)
- Worsening staffing crisis in the NHS (thank you Brexit)
- Worsening rates of mental illnesses, obesity, and obesity-related conditions like type 2 diabetes
- Worsening violent crime rates (thank you gvt for cutting police numbers and social service spending)
- Worsening social inequality
- No very major medical advances recently
- The slow march of antibiotic resistance
Anyone disagree?